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The Besbris Burger Board: High-Upside Pickups for Fantasy Basketball

Ajay Mitchell - Fantasy Basketball Rankings, DFS and Betting Picks, NBA Injury News

Dan Besbris provides his top waiver adds, specifically players who have seen their value increase significantly because of injuries to their teammates.

Those of you who know me also know that I don't really enjoy streaming to maximize games. We all do it because we have to, but it's no fun. What is fun, however, is finding top-50 producers on the wire that can last for multiple weeks, and in the current NBA climate where everyone is hurt seemingly all the time, there are countless backups ready to step into larger roles.

Fantasy managers have never been sharper than they are today. Information is everywhere, and the odds of finding a true rest-of-season player as a free agent are exceptionally low. By constantly monitoring the news, though, we can find multiple short-to-medium-term studs camped out on the wire every week.

How can this be true? Simple. These studs were terrible until the player blocking their path blew a hammy. And (sadly) because injuries happen in bunches, there are opportunities to stack these high-upside performers with the understanding that their powerhouse numbers won't last forever. These are the Burger Board Boys at the beginning of week two.

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What's the Burger Board?

Two years ago I was trying to be cute, and I ranked how good I thought injury replacement backups would be using hamburger emojis. More burgers meant more fantasy production. Social media thought it was hilarious, and because I am beholden to the angry masses, the Burger Board was born.

In actuality, the board is just an easy way to quantify upside among this particular type of fantasy target.

Three burgers denote a backup that I believe can post the equivalent of top-50 numbers while a specific player (or players) is out; two burgers correspond to top-75 value; one burger is still a start in all formats with production roughly in line with the top-100; and french fry players are guys that work as high-end head-to-head streamers but are not strong enough for a games cap league. There are no orders of fries in this week's list, but they'll surely pop up soon.

If you don't know, now you know. Now onto the meal!

 

Three Burger Pickups

By definition, there are only 50 players on the planet that post numbers this strong. The three-burger replacement adds are extraordinarily rare and special.

Grayson Allen, G - Charlotte Hornets

The steals haven't been there so far, but Grayson Allen has incredible fantasy ability and folks forget about it every year. The biggest two issues for Allen have been the health of his knees and higher-usage players blocking his path. Lucky for us, the second of those problems is temporarily fixed with Kon Knueppel and Coby White on the shelf.

In four games to begin the season, Allen isn't inside the top-50, so questioning my triple-burger label would be well within reason. Currently, Grayson is ranked #98 in 9-category leagues, averaging 16.8 points, 3.5 threes, 2.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists in roughly 28 bench minutes per game, but Allen has just one total steal in four games.

If we adjust for the likelihood that steals will come, Allen profiles as at least a two-burger player. His path to a triple-decker would merely require an extra 1-2 shots per game, but we should all be quite satisfied even if he ends up as only a top-75 or better choice.

 

Two Burger Pickups

Jalen Smith, C - Chicago Bulls

Nic Claxton's loss is Jalen Smith's gain, even if the Chicago Bulls are so bad that they can't keep a darn game within striking distance. Yes, I'm frustrated.

Smith began the season with a pair of excellent games, but the Bulls' team-wide ineptitude has limited Jalen's minutes and his overall value. The good news is that Smith only needs 24-25 minutes per game to achieve this double-burger label. I still believe he can get there, though perhaps I'm too optimistic about Chicago not getting blown out.

Despite the blowout-depressed minutes, Smith is still averaging 12.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.5 threes, and 0.8 steals. Smith's historical block rate is significantly better than what we've seen through four games, as well, giving me the confidence I need to call Jalen not only a solid replacement, but one of the better ones on our list.

Ajay Mitchell, G - Oklahoma City Thunder

In the span of 36 hours, Ajay Mitchell went from being a name approaching the chopping block to arguably one of the safest plays on his team.

On Sunday morning, Mitchell was logging bench minutes in the low 20s, and we were all left wondering if the increased role fantasy managers expected wasn't in the cards. By Monday evening, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace had been ruled out for (probably) the year, and Alex Caruso was in the locker room with an ankle injury.

The Thunder are notoriously deep, but I see almost no way they can survive the season without Mitchell posting at least 26 minutes per game. And that's the floor! In Oklahoma City's first game without 25% of their roster, Mitchell played exactly 26 minutes and put up a monster fantasy line of 30 points and 5 assists on terrific efficiency.

It's difficult to say exactly where Mitchell's fantasy ranking will land, but if last year is any indicator, he can get to the top-100 in 25-to-26 minutes per game. Top-75 would likely require an additional 2-3 minutes per contest, so perhaps I'm going a short distance out on a limb, but it feels worth it in this case.

Derik Queen, C - New Orleans Pelicans

We will keep this analysis brief since Queen was largely drafted and is not available on the wire. I was against drafting Queen, and it would seem that I was both right and wrong all at the same time. I was right because Yves Missi was rapidly turning Queen into a 17-minute backup; I was wrong because Missi is now hurt and Queen is ready to rumble.

Why are we even discussing a player if you can't add him? Two reasons.

First, context matters. When we look back at this season, it's important to know how fantasy players got to their final numbers.

Second, this is a sell window on Queen. This is the brief moment when fantasy managers are feeling the sting of losing Missi, realizing Queen is about to go off, and still want Derik enough to pay a small premium to get him. Once Queen starts posting big lines and Missi return-to-play info starts to leak, it will be too late. Make your move to sell while you can.

Paul Reed, C - Detroit Pistons

The man they call BBall Paul is ready to explode onto the fantasy scene. Jalen Duren is week-to-week, so we have a nice little window to cash in.

The fear with Reed is that when he's been given these types of fill-in opportunities in the past, he hasn't been able to capitalize. Whether it's foul trouble, match-up issues, or just generally inconsistent play, I don't think we can expect Reed to step into all of Duren's minutes. Fortunately, Reed, like Smith above, only needs 24 or 25 minutes to reach 12-team startable territory.

The best way to get a feel for Reed's potential is to deep dive into his game logs from the past three seasons. Look for games where Reed got the starting nod, and try not to worry too much about the minutes bouncing around between 20 and 34. Isaiah Stewart is in Memphis now, so Detroit has fewer alternatives. This is Reed's big chance to show he deserves full minutes, and I think we can catch a little lightning in a bottle.

 

One Burger Pickups

Dennis Schroder, G - Charlotte Hornets

Dennis Schroder has a terrible fantasy game, and it brings me no joy at all to put him on the list. If you are punting field goal percentage, turnovers, or potentially even steals longer term, he does, in fact, push inside the top-100.

As a strict 9-category roto option, he remains waiver wire fodder. Schroder's run will come to an end the minute either Knueppel or White returns for the Hornets, so don't get too attached. And please only add if you need exactly the categories Schroder brings: points, assists, and free-throw help.

Jaxson Hayes, C - Utah Jazz

Jaxson Hayes was very nearly wiped from this list. Jusuf Nurkic is sidelined for a month, and Jaxson Hayes got a starting nod to begin the year. Everything was coming up roses for a moment. Hayes got moved to the bench, his minutes were slowly fading, and he was scratched from Monday's game with a sore shoulder.

Then fate intervened. Both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen were hurt mid-game, and it looks, once again, like the Jazz almost have no choice but to play Hayes until he fouls out. It's not typically in my nature to tell you to add a player that also missed the game, but my gut feeling is that Hayes will be back shortly, and if Jackson has to miss any time, Jaxson can once again climb the hill to a single burger.

Tristan da Silva and Anthony Black - Orlando Magic

It's a pair of single burgers! If we stack them, does it count as a double?

Both da Silva and Black lost a bit of their shine when Jalen Suggs's imaging showed just a bone bruise in his knee. We were all preparing for the worst, but Jalen's absence can be measured in weeks instead of months. Still, Black puts up big-time counting stats, and da Silva has shown a veteran-like consistency in more of a quiet producer role.

I'm not certain that Black can post top-100 numbers without punting one of his poor percentages, but in most head-to-head formats he is likely still a must-roster play. Da Silva's game translates a bit better for roto leagues.

I'm not ultra-excited about either, but I can also admit they likely belong on some team's roster in your league.

Jay Huff, C - Indiana Pacers

A world-beater Huff is not. We have enough data from last year to know that the Pacers will likely only give Jay half of the available center minutes.

That should still be enough, thanks to Huff's magical combination of three-pointers, blocks, and good percentages. For head-to-head players, Huff may not make sense unless you need his specific strengths. Players that excel in two of the three low-volume categories are like roto candy. Ivica Zubac is dealing with a badly sprained ankle, and Huff is the play for a couple of weeks.

Daniss Jenkins, G - Detroit Pistons

Jenkins got a spot start with Ausar Thompson out and did not disappoint, scoring 18 points, with 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 three-pointers, and a block. I added Jenkins quickly in a couple of leagues since the reporting around Thompson's injury was pretty confusing.

Ausar was upgraded to questionable on the most recent injury report, so it seems like he's not that far off, but I'll still squeeze whatever juice I can out of this Jenkins burger play.

 

Full Bellies and Happy Fantasy Teams

Congrats! You loaded up on burgers of different magnitudes, and you're ready to dominate.

A word to the wise: don't rest on your laurels. New injuries, and consequently, fresh burgers, happen every night.

Come back next time for the updated list, and make sure you constantly seek out the best per-game producers on your own, as well.



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