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Mike's Week 9 college football betting picks against the spread for Tuesday, October 27 through Friday, October 30, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
There were more upsets in Week 8, and more officials doing the dirty work of the conference offices by trying to shield the elite brands of the league. There's a lot of money in college football now. The conferences have to protect as many playoff hopeful teams as possible!
Weekday Conference USA gives us some action on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. It's a little lighter of a week overall with 56 total games again. Only nine of those 56 games take place before Saturday this week. There is money to be made before Saturday.
If you have questions about any of these games, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 9
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
You should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
I've had trouble finding the 2019 and 2020 articles, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.
If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.
I finished at .500 with picks, but still lost some points thanks to overconfident bets on some teams. I know that happened at least twice this week, so I don't have high hopes of getting out of the hole I'm in this week.
Let's tackle the nine picks before the Saturday games before we check out the results of Week 9.
Delaware at Western Kentucky (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has flipped, presumably because of Delaware's adventures in run-stopping. I don't care. They still have this guy.
Delaware QB Nick Minicucci just wasn't going to be stopped on 4th and goal ?
With the knee brace on too ? https://t.co/UjelkHLjlY
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 21, 2026
Pick: Delaware +1.5
Sam Houston at Missouri State (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Bears are moving the ball with Henry Belin IV in there. This feels low.
Pick: Missouri State -5.5
Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Roman Gagliano is starting to figure things out.
Pick: Middle Tennessee State -2.5
Jacksonville State (-3.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game will be decided on the ground. New Mexico State's run defense is significantly better than Jacksonville's.
Pick: New Mexico State +3.5
Florida Atlantic at North Texas (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This has the looks of a high-scoring game. FAU's defense has been brutalized, and North Texas is one of the more versatile offenses they have faced. I'll say that the Mean Green pull away late.
Pick: North Texas -13.5
Troy at James Madison (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Troy got beat by Monroe last week. This is still too low, even though the line is on the rise.
Pick: James Madison -20.5
Tulane (-10.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tulane turned it over six times in one game after forcing seven turnovers. What are we going to get in this one? They're not getting a bet out of me, that's for sure...
Pick: Tulane -10.5
Baylor at Central Florida (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This has the looks of a low-key fun defensive battle. I feel like UCF takes this after last week's signature win.
Pick: Central Florida -1.5
Kent State (-9.5) at Sacramento State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Hornets haven't hung with anyone. Why would that change now?
Pick: Kent State -9.5
CFB Betting Picks - Week 8 Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad?
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2021-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My results will follow.
Middle Tennessee State at Florida International (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I never thought I would see the FIU defense get gutted, but here we are...
Missouri State at Delaware (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Nick Minicucci is a difference-maker, but Missouri State has a good one in Henry Belin IV as well. The Bears could make enough noise to salvage the season.
South Alabama (-3.5) at Marshall: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Jared Hollins played so poorly against the Marshall defense that Bishop Davenport should probably get his job back.
New Mexico State (-2.5) at Sam Houston: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Just when it looked like Sam Houston had a chance, James Jones showed up again.
James Madison (-10.5) at Appalachian State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
James London wins the game for Appalachian State!
James Madison is unbeaten no more and they rush the field in Boone
#appstate #godukes https://t.co/nhm3qzqoZK
— Carter Lowe (@carterjlowe) October 23, 2026
Malachi Singleton is still the man in Boone. Maybe there is something to this peak foliage week thing at App State...
Liberty (-10.5) at Kennesaw State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There isn't a true star for this Liberty offense, but they all play well.
East Carolina at Memphis (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Marcus Stokes played well, and Memphis pulled it out, but the defense did not play well. ECU doesn't have the star power that the 2025 team had, but they're making more. TJ Engleman Jr. is a star on the rise.
Duke at Virginia (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There is a reason that I didn't put much on this game. Virginia outplayed Duke for most of the game.
Massachusetts at Connecticut (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Honestly, that's just disrespectful to Pop Watson. UConn obviously didn't understand the significance of his return.
Army at Tulsa (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. I'm glad that most of the country got to see it on a Friday.
Air Force (-4.5) at Wyoming: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tyler Hughes is starting to look like Josh Allen out there in Laramie.
North Carolina State (-6.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
It took a while for the first FBS head to roll compared to last season, but there's a lesson here. You can't just go around losing to Stanford. There are consequences.
Pittsburgh at (1) Miami (FL) (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Miami wants to count this as a big win, but it's not. Pitt was missing both Mason Heintschel and Ja'Kyrian Turner.
(6) Indiana (-6.5) at Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This doesn't mean that Indiana's offense is "bad." Are they as good as last year? No, but it's also true that Michigan has an elite defense. Both things can be true.
I understand not going back to Bryce Underwood after naming Tommy Carr the starter, but you have to wonder if Michigan could have won with Underwood.
(8) Texas Tech (-10.5) at Cincinnati: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Texas Tech was never going to get the benefit of the doubt with this schedule anyway, but getting out-Teched by Cincinnati has soured many voters.
It's warranted. Cincinnati was coming off of back-to-back losses, including one in Tucson where the Bearcats couldn't run the ball at all. That same backfield went nuts on Tech.
Cincinnati RB Cole Tabb (#3) was sensational against Texas Tech. Rushed for 173 yards and a touchdown on just 16 carries.
Bit of a short stepper but he has some juice. Big play weapon. https://t.co/BDZcEvsuk8
— Ryan Roberts (@RiseNDraft) October 25, 2026
(18) LSU (-8.5) at Auburn: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Did Auburn get screwed over by the interception reversal? Maybe. I can see both sides of it. I will say that they shouldn't have overturned the call on the field. There wasn't enough for a reversal either way.
However, Auburn let that control the game. They had nothing after that, which is inexcusable since that was overturned in the first quarter.
California at (23) SMU (-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was easily the best game that SMU has played all season. I'm noticing a trend here. Cal does that to people.
Rutgers at (24) Northwestern (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better...
West Virginia at TCU (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
TCU still has a strong defense. Michael Hawkins Jr. is just that good in West Virginia's system. West Virginia's defense holding TCU to just 20 points is arguably more impressive.
Rice at Florida Atlantic (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a really fun game if you're not a fan of either team (or if you bet on FAU). That Rice offense is looking like one of Paul Johnson's early Georgia Tech teams.
Western Michigan at Toledo (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It was a wild one at the Glass Bowl. This also serves to highlight how good Boise State's defense can be. They locked up Western Michigan. Toledo has their hands full, especially in the second half.
Baylor (-2.5) at Kansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well, at least the under hit. How was I supposed to know that Kansas would beat Baylor for the first time since 2007?
Akron at Kent State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Dru DeShields threw half of his touchdown passes on the season in the Wagon Wheel game. Fans remember how you perform in rivalry games.
Miami (OH) (-2.5) at Central Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The switch to Jaydn Glasser may have saved the season for the Chips.
Oregon (-8.5) at Illinois: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Michael Clayton Jr. had his moments for Illinois. The real question is: what incentive does Dante Moore have to play again this season? His numbers were good before he got hurt, and Oregon's season is over since most players would opt out of a bowl game anyway.
(2) BYU (-6.5) at Central Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This loss was the absolute worst thing that could happen for the Big 12 as a whole (and it was officiated like it). The refs tried to bail BYU out, but they wouldn't take it.
BYU is now facing a nightmare scenario if they lose another game. The polls/CFP Committee doesn't respect an 11-2 BYU. That won't change this year, even with a win over Notre Dame.
Michigan State at (9) UCLA (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Who needs to move the ball when you have a defense like this?
(11) Tennessee at South Carolina (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The part that no one is going to tell you is that South Carolina didn't play a good game after the first quarter. Tennessee gave it away down the stretch.
Texas A&M at (13) Alabama (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Did Marcel Reed magically get better, or was it the Alabama defense? That's why I'm holding back on Alabama. The offense looks solved. The defense still has lapses that will lose games against good teams.
(15) Iowa (-6.5) at Minnesota: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The loss of Kamari Moulton doomed the Hawkeyes.
Oklahoma (-4.5) at Mississippi State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I understand that Kamario Taylor really wanted to play in this game, but he's lucky he wasn't hurt worse against this defense.
This was the best that the Oklahoma offensive line has looked since Week 1. Good line play resulted in a run game that worked and a somewhat accurate John Mateer.
Boston College at Georgia Tech (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Mason McKenzie is a lot of fun to watch. He's like Trinidad Chambliss on a bad team.
North Texas (-2.5) at Navy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was another fun game. Tayven Jackson is finally at home in Denton. Justin Stevenson had a breakout game. It's almost like Eric Morris never left and took the whole offense with him.
Hawaii (-3.5) at Northern Illinois: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is the Hawaii offense that we were told existed. We hadn't seen it until now.
Sacramento State at Ball State (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game was all Ball with very little Sac.
Bowling Green at Buffalo (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Buffalo has another special running back in Messiah Burch.
Kansas State (-3.5) at Arizona State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Just in case you were wondering how important Avery Johnson is to Kansas State, this was the answer. If I had caught the Johnson news, there's no way I would have bet on K-State.
Eastern Michigan at Ohio (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's been a while since I've seen Ohio struggle to run the ball.
Louisiana-Monroe at Troy (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Troy is cooked without Goose.
San Jose State at Nevada (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. Again. There's a reason why I won't bet on SJSU this year.
Louisiana (-10.5) at Southern Mississippi: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Louisiana defense fell apart in this one. Jamarice Wilder could be a difference-maker for the Eagles.
Old Dominion at Louisiana Tech (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bulldogs are the dominant Sun Belt West team.
(21) Boise State (-12.5) at Washington State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Broncos didn't pull away until late in this one. Owen Eshelman has made the Cougars a much better team.
San Diego State (-1.5) at Colorado State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
HAUSS TAKES IT IN HIMSELF
@HaussHejny x @Chevron https://t.co/kmNL7Dj8FT
— Colorado State Football (@CSUFootball) October 25, 2026
When Hauss is in the house, the Rams are a different team. I know that the defense was bad before, but perhaps it wasn't the best idea to fire a defense coordinator mid-game a month ago. Colorado State's defense has arguably been worse since.
Colorado at Oklahoma State (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I've been telling you guys for over a year now that Drew Mestemaker is for real. I'm glad everyone sees it now.
Drew Mestemaker is 1.01 in the 2027 NFL Draft
Big-time throws galore https://t.co/03Dtb1uIq1
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) October 25, 2026
Virginia Tech at Clemson (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Clemson run defense is impressive. So are the receivers. The quarterback? Not so much...
Georgia State (-2.5) at Arkansas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a fun game. Toby Owens to Jaylen Bonelli is going to work well until someone poaches one or both of them.
(7) Mississippi at (19) Texas (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Texas put the game on Raleek Brown and Michael Terry III this week instead of Arch Manning. That was the winning formula, even though Texas nearly blew this.
Vanderbilt at (12) Kentucky (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Either CJ Baxter isn't completely healthy, or Kentucky has turned this into a full-on committee. Whatever the case, it works.
(16) USC (-2.5) at Wisconsin: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really thought that Lincoln Riley would be the next to go. The offense can't play against good defenses, and the defense is marginally better than last year despite the addition of defensive guru Gary Patterson. Not to mention that this abomination was coming out of a bye week.
Iowa State at (25) Arizona (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arizona is just a different team at home. Isaiah Mizell might have been the best receiver on this roster all along, but he didn't get a chance until injuries cleared the way.
ISAIAH MIZELL ARE YOU FOR REAL??? ?
? ESPN2 https://t.co/cFHh4euCng
— Arizona Football (@ArizonaFBall) October 24, 2026
Syracuse at North Carolina (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Carolina's defense was carved up this week. You cannot trust this team. Ever.
Utah State at Texas State (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Utah State defense was impressive in this one. Considering all they lost from last year, moral victories still count.
UTSA (-2.5) at Tulane: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If you just looked at the box score, you would think Tulane won. UTSA did to them what they did to Memphis last week. Trace Johnson was picked off twice, and Tulane lost four fumbles.
North Dakota State at New Mexico (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We knew that this would be a defensive battle. The smashed under bet made sure I didn't lose money on the weekend.
(14) Houston at (10) Utah (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Houston lost control of this game in the fourth quarter.
College Football Betting Season Results
I missed on 32 picks for the third consecutive week. The bad news is that's over half of the picks again! I'm now 40 games under on the season at 202-242. I'm afraid to look at the points.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-1 (22-20) = 2
2. 8-12 (68-86) = -36
3. 6-12 (80-75) = 18
4. 5-2 (22-42) = -80
5. 2-5 (10-19) = -45
It was rough out there last week. With as many upsets as there were, I'm surprised that it wasn't worse. I'm going to switch it up this week. I have no confidence in these picks, and I don't feel good about it. Conventional wisdom isn't working anymore.
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