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Mike's Week 7 college football betting picks against the spread for Tuesday, October 13 through Friday, October 16, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Week 6 gave us more Big Ten referee incompetence, and it may have cost Michigan State a win. We saw a turnover-fest in a battle of backups in Eugene. We saw one of those backups benched during the game.
Weekday Conference USA gives us some action on Tuesday and Wednesday again this week. We have 59 total FBS vs. FBS games this week. 10 of them happen before Saturday. There is money to be made before the weekend!
Clemson, Stanford, and Texas A&M are slumming with FCS teams this week. As per usual, I'm not picking those. It's too hard to get an accurate spread. If you have questions about any of these games, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 7
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
I've had trouble finding the articles from 2019 and 2020, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.
If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.
I finished at .500 with picks, but still lost some points thanks to overconfident bets on some teams. I know that happened at least twice this week, so I don't have high hopes of getting out of the hole I'm in this week.
Let's tackle the 10 picks before the Saturday games before we check out the results of Week 6.
Delaware (-1.5) at Middle Tennessee State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This opened with the Blue Raiders as a slight favorite. Mum has been the word surrounding Nick Minicucci's status after the bye, but the shift in the line makes me think he's playing. If he is, this is too low.
Pick: Delaware -1.5
Florida International at Jacksonville State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
FIU has been bad on the road. Jacksonville State has been kind of bad everywhere. I'll count on JJ Kohl to make a critical error on the road.
Pick: Jacksonville State -2.5
Kennesaw State (-3.5) at Missouri State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kennesaw has always played Jacksonville State tough. That doesn't mean they're good.
Pick: Missouri State +3.5
Western Kentucky (-1.5) at Sam Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Hilltoppers looked good with former Florida State quarterback Brock Glenn in there. Fine, I'll believe.
Pick: Western Kentucky -1.5
East Carolina (-4.5) at UAB
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Blazers got trampled by Memphis. We know that Memphis is a good team. I'm still not sure about East Carolina.
Pick: UAB +4.5
Georgia Southern (-3.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The weather can't save them this time.
Pick: Georgia Southern -3.5
Colorado State at Texas State (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hauss Hejny will be in uniform for the Rams, but coach Jim Mora said he has only been doing work on the side in practice. Vegas thinks he's out, which explains why this line is out of control.
K'Saan Farrar has been pretty good for Colorado State, but they won't be able to keep up with the Bobcats if Hejny remains out. I'll change this if Hauss ends up playing.
Pick: Texas State -14.5
Memphis (-6.5) at Tulane
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low with the way that Marcus Stokes and the Tigers are playing.
Pick: Memphis -6.5
Washington at Purdue (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Washington can't stop anyone, and Purdue is playing with a purpose. This might get really ugly.
Pick: Purdue -3.5
Appalachian State (-1.5) at Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Mountaineers just lost outright to Old Dominion. CCU righted the ship against Marshall. This feels off to me.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +1.5
CFB Betting Picks - Week 6 Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad?
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2021-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My results will follow.
Southern Mississippi at Troy (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Goose talked to me this week. This might have been the best game of Goose Crower's career. After everything that he's been through, he deserves it.
Goose Crowder, have a day! ?
✅ 225 yards passing
✅ 145 yards rushing
✅ 4 total TDs
✅ Only 3 incompletionsTroy had 662 yards of offense, averaging 8.3 yards per play in a 55-34 win over Southern Miss
#FunBelt ⚔️? https://t.co/sKgrg1Pyxr
— Top Tier Group of Six (@TopTierG6) October 7, 2026
Jacksonville State (-2.5) at Kennesaw State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a good game, just like the Conference USA Championship was last year. This is becoming a nice little rivalry in Conference USA.
New Mexico State at Florida International (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Maybe FIU should wear those Miami Vice uniforms all the time.
Sam Houston at Liberty (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Liberty defense played another great game, but the key takeaway is that Landyn Locke still didn't turn the ball over.
Missouri State at Western Kentucky (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Do you remember Brock Glenn? He's the answer to one of the most famous Florida State trivia questions. He's the guy who beat Louisville in the ACC Championship in 2023 after Jordan Travis went down.
He has resurfaced again. After never winning the Florida State job, Glenn moved on to Western Kentucky. I think it's safe to say that job is his now.
South Florida at UTSA (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UTSA has been great in conference home games under Jeff Traylor. Do you really think that they're pumping in crowd noise? I don't think they are, since the Nebraska crowd was super loud in the Alamodome vs. Michigan State there several years ago, and they only had half the stadium.
South Alabama at Arkansas State (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It's games like this that originally put the Fun Belt on the map. These two teams hit the over by halftime. 105 points later, Jared Hollins led South Alabama to a big road win.
Hey, did you guys know that this stadium has a waterfall in it? There is great football and great stadiums outside of the two conferences that ESPN and Fox talk about all the time.
Florida State at Louisville (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ashton Daniels and Florida State punched Louisville in the mouth out of the gate. It was 14-0 at the end of the first quarter.
Mike Norvell's decision to go for it on fourth and goal instead of kicking the field goal to go up 17-0 will forever be questioned. Louisville did this on the next play.
Isaac Brown goes 97 yards to the ?
Louisville responds quick to Florida State ? https://t.co/TF8bsGXcCT
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 10, 2026
That was the longest play from scrimmage in program history. Brown's 235 rushing yards were the most in FBS this season.
(20) Iowa at Washington (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kamari Moulton ran for a career-high 208 yards on the Washington defense. Jeremy Hecklinski threw three (!!) touchdowns as an Iowa quarterback and had the best hard count in the history of football.
This is a family program, so you'll just have to go find it on X for yourself.
Demond Williams Jr. left the game due to injury, but this was out of hand before he left the game. Washington had 18 yards on 14 plays in the first five drives. Junior Elijah Brown stepped in and led Washington on three scoring drives.
Washington State at Utah State (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a spirited performance by Washington State after getting clobbered by Fresno at home last week.
Wyoming at San Jose State (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a terrible game, but we kind of knew it would be. The Spartans are wasting a good quarterback (again).
Iowa State at (8) BYU (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
BYU is winning ugly, but the keyword in that phrase is winning. They like it ugly, especially with LJ Martin out. In his stead, Bear Bachmeier threw for a career-high 329 yards.
(7) Indiana (-7.5) at Nebraska: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Matt Rhule and Nebraska may have lost to yet another ranked team, but they looked good for all but three plays on defense. That was enough of a window for the Hoosiers to escape with a win.
THE HOOSIERS HAVE THE LEAD IN THE 4TH!
Hoover finds Nick Marsh for six! @IndianaFootball https://t.co/0Owzu06spV
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 10, 2026
Nebraska's two-score lead lasted just eight seconds.
Texas A&M at (14) Missouri (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was the definition of easy money. Marcel Reed is completely lost right now.
Central Florida at (18) Oklahoma State (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like the schemes that UCF runs, but the offense couldn't stay on the field. Oklahoma State is rounding into the team that I thought they were coming into the season.
North Carolina at (25) Pittsburgh (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hayden Geriner was picked off twice in his first career start. Ja'Kyrian Turner only got five carries. This was basically North Carolina vs. Pitt without its star QB and star RB...and Pitt still almost won.
Arizona (-3.5) at West Virginia: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I underestimated Noah Fifita. He is not the same quarterback that he was two years ago.
Wake Forest (-3.5) at North Carolina State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was a Gio Lopez master class. His reunion with Rob Ezell at a power school is everything that I hoped it would be.
QB play for JUST this weekends games. Up first is the Power 4. Alessio Milivojevic (!), Gunner Stockton (a usual) and Gio Lopez (!) your top right QBs of the week https://t.co/NjaJmM8S9A
— CFBNumbers (@CFBNumbers) October 11, 2026
Tulane at Army (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ugh...that stupid half. Tulane outplayed Army for much of the game, but it was too much Cale Hellums in the fourth quarter.
Sacramento State at Bowling Green (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Most teams that have made the jump to FBS in the last five years have been ready. We found the one that wasn't.
Ball State at Northwestern (-36.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Northwestern didn't care about covering this. They didn't score in the fourth quarter.
South Carolina at (16) Florida (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Florida, we hardly knew ya. This gives Shane Beamer a stay of execution, but for how long?
Old Dominion at Appalachian State (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It was an ugly game in a monsoon. This was scoreless at halftime and was 2-0 at one point. Come to think of it, this wasn't ugly. It was beautiful!
Miami (OH) (-2.5) at Massachusetts: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Aedan McCarthy was solid in place of Pop Watson, but he's not Pop. It was a spirited effort by UMass, but win number 5 is going to have to wait.
(1) Texas (-7.5) vs. Oklahoma at Dallas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I couldn't have imagined us winning this game. Even after the blocked punt for a touchdown, I didn't believe. Our offense was still out of sync. Then came the defense.
ARCH MANNING TOUCHDOWN PASS TO THE DEFENSE https://t.co/nz7czGREEb
— wok (@wokdior) October 10, 2026
The defense has carried the team all season, and it picked up Oklahoma when we needed it. I think that fight that Texas started in the third quarter got Oklahoma going.
Texas tried to push the Oklahoma player on top of the football and a scuffle broke out ? https://t.co/hL3IlXQuSW
— ESPN (@espn) October 10, 2026
Brent Venables finally let Ben Arbuckle call the offense that he wanted. Look at Arbuckle in that fourth quarter on the sidelines. He was having fun. We haven't seen that since the Washington State years.
I don't think any two-loss team (with the exception of the crazy 2007 season) deserves a shot at the National Championship. But since this is now our reality, I hope Oklahoma is past the early-season struggles, and we take one of those spots.
Stanford at (3) Notre Dame (-39.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How long until the Andrew Luck effect starts happening? Davis Warren isn't turning the ball over, but Stanford still can't sustain a drive on offense.
Oh, and Jonaz Walton is the best back in the Notre Dame backfield. It's not close. Feed him!!
(9) Mississippi (-9.5) at Vanderbilt: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Truth be told, the Rebels didn't even need Kewan Lacy.
(21) UCLA at (13) Oregon (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The outright win didn't surprise me. UCLA only winning by two points after forcing seven turnovers surprised me. Ty Dieffenbach did well enough handling the offense with Nico Iamaleava out, but will they turn the team over to him for the rest of the season?
I was completely shocked at how bad Dylan Raiola's performance was. It was easily the worst game of his career, and the worst one in FBS in the last three years.
The 20 worst single-game QB performances using EPA per dropback since 2024. We have a new No. 1. https://t.co/RY3qjgCiVv
— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) October 11, 2026
(22) Houston at Kansas State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew this line was a joke. I wish I had bet like it.
Duke (-6.5) at Georgia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Duke had so many chances to win this game. With every game, Alberto Mendoza gets a little bit closer to his older brother.
Virginia Tech (-9.5) at California: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Cal was better without Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. Jackson Brousseau had good command of the offense and was more accurate than JKS has ever been.
Illinois (-2.5) at Michigan State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Big Ten referees have been so bad this year that they should all be banned from postseason games, and most of them should be fired outright. Here's the latest:
This was called offsides by the officials, taking away Michigan State’s recovered onsides kick.
This was the fourth suspicious call (or no-call) going against MSU in this game. Just a stunning day for the refs in this MSU - Illinois game. https://t.co/Mm2OXcYY5B
— Justin Thind (@JustinThind) October 10, 2026
He was CLEARLY not offsides and clearly recovered the ball inbounds. I don't want officials like that deciding games that could end a team's season.
Charlotte at North Texas (-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
As college football fans, we deserve to see a bowl game between Charlotte and Sacramento State at the worst FBS stadium. The kids will love it.
Tulsa at Navy (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I need to quit picking Tulsa like the team that beat Oklahoma State. They are clearly not that team. That was just North Texas-Stillwater not being ready.
Eastern Michigan (-6.5) at Akron: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Eastern Michigan is still not good. All is right in the world.
Buffalo at Toledo (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
...or not. This may have been the worst game I have ever seen Toledo play.
Central Michigan at Ohio (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ohio didn't score in the second half. Central Michigan didn't score in the first half. This was a strange game.
Kent State at Western Michigan (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I hope you're taking notes as I am. Buffalo isn't as bad as we thought. Toledo isn't as good as we thought. MACtion is going to be something else this year, especially with UMass having a fighting chance in every game.
Connecticut at Temple (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Once again, that UConn offense is good. If you haven't watched Kalieb Osborne yet, you should catch him soon on a CBS Sports Network near you.
Rice at East Carolina (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
ECU is still a shadow of last year's team, but TJ Engleman Jr. looks like he could be good as a power school near you in 2027.
Maryland at (5) Ohio State (-32.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was never a game, but the rain did slow down the Ohio State offense, specifically Jeremiah Smith, in this one.
(15) Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Tennessee is awful in Fayetteville, no matter how awful the team from Fayetteville is. It's fascinating and frightening at the same time.
San Diego State at Oregon State (-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
ESPN owns the Heisman Trophy too, so you'll never see Jesse Legree get the respect he deserves. This is why I don't pay that much attention to recruiting rankings. Legree got exactly one offer from an FBS school, and it was on the morning of signing day.
Jesse Legree's first 6 games as a collegiate receiver:
5 rec., 136 yards, 1 TD
8 rec., 240 yards, 2 TD
4 rec., 100 yards, 1 TD
6 rec., 109 yards, 2 TD
5 rec., 156 yards, 3 TD
10 rec., 191 yards, 3 TDThat's 38 catches, 932 yards & 12 TD in 1/2 a season. https://t.co/KOP4DAmScc
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 11, 2026
Now, after just six FBS games, he's the best receiver in college football. Legree has 11 touchdowns in his first six games. That's the most in FBS history. Michael Crabtree and Randy Moss are the only ones to have nine in their first five collegiate games.
(10) LSU (-8.5) at Kentucky: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Now the SEC fans are seeing what Big 12 fans knew all along. Cam Skattebo was the only reason that Arizona State made the CFP in 2024. Sam Leavitt is tough, but he makes way too many mistakes.
Kentucky is finally a fun team again. Will Stein makes this team fun. Kentucky took on the persona of Mark Stoops after a while.
UAB at Memphis (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I rewatched the UNLV and Boise games, and Marcus Stokes is so much better now than he was then. He's still growing.
Nevada (-9.5) at UTEP: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have bet more on this. UTEP might give Sacramento State and Charlotte a run.
North Dakota State (-3.5) at UNLV: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I did not see a defensive struggle happening in this game. UNLV had a great game plan for the upstart Bison in this one.
Coastal Carolina at Marshall (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Both of these teams are kind of in upheaval, trying to figure things out. It certainly makes for an entertaining game, but not if you're a fan of either team.
(2) Georgia at (6) Alabama (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Those who smashed the under came out of this one better than the rest of us. There's a reason I didn't bet this. Georgia had so many chances to lose this game, but recovered all of those fumbles.
Both Keelon Russell and Gunner Stockton played solid games. This one lived up to the billing. It was Georgia's first win against Alabama in the regular season since 2007.
(19) USC at Penn State (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
USC didn't play that great a game and still won. The return of Trent Mosley was a huge boost to Jayden Maiava and the offense.
Syracuse at Virginia (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is this redemption for Malachi Nelson? How long will it last? Steve Angeli and Amari Odom could be ready this week.
Air Force (-7.5) at Northern Illinois: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If you love old-school football, this game was for you. Air Force won by 21 points and didn't complete a single pass in the entire game. They only attempted one. I think they just wanted to see if they could do it.
James Madison (-7.5) at Georgia Southern: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
For whatever reason, the Dukes always struggle in Statesboro.
Louisiana at Louisiana Tech (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bulldogs won their ninth straight game in this series, but it was only by one point...
Minnesota (-2.5) at Purdue: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wait...is Purdue good? They sure looked like it here. Fame Ijeboi slashed the Minnesota defense.
Kansas at (12) Utah (-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a really strong performance by Isaiah Marshall and Kansas in a road game. It took the Utes a while to pull away.
(22) Boise State (-6.5) at Fresno State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was everything that a Milk Can game should be. Boise left with the Can for the first time since 2022.
Hawaii at Arizona State (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cardae Mack had a good game. Most of the rest of the Sun Devils did not.
College Football Betting Season Results
I was on the losing end of things this week again. I went 26-32 to put my season total at 151-178. Considering I was six games under 50%, I'm sure I lost points again this week. Those four-pointers are bad news.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-1 (19-17) = 2
2. 8-11 (49-63) = -28
3. 13-12 (62-50) = 36
4. 1-6 (13-36) = -92
5. 2-2 (8-12) = -20
I lost 22 points this week thanks to upsets in the SEC and the MAC. Next week will be better. One of these weeks, it has to be true.
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