Fantasy Basketball: The Do Not Draft List (2026)

October 2, 2026

Dan Besbris reveals the players he is avoiding in 2026 fantasy basketball. Fade these players at their current ADP as they'll have a hard time living up to those expectations.

Many experts subscribe to the theory that one good pick typically cannot win your league, but one bad pick just might lose it. This may be more appropriate for picks made in the first two or three rounds, but grabbing a player who lays an egg feels terrible no matter the round.

Below, we will take a look at the players destined to crash and burn during the upcoming 2026-27 fantasy basketball season, ranging from fender-benders to all-out flaming wreckage-level disasters.

And before we get rolling, an important note on the list: punt-style players will be excluded from this article. It is incredibly disingenuous as an analyst to use traditional 9-category rankings for players like Giannis Antetokounmpo when the vast majority of fantasy managers are ignoring his worst category.

Players Going Way Too Early

These players are not, in theory, bad choices - they are merely improperly priced.

Jaylen Brown
Yahoo Rank - 31

Hot take time! Jaylen Brown will rank closer to #100 than #31 at the end of the season.

In prior articles here on RotoBaller, I have referred to the perfect storm for fantasy winners. Sometimes, the opposite is also true, and we find ourselves under an imperfect avalanche of misplaced hype.

Last year, Jaylen Brown was the undisputed alpha on the Boston Celtics. The former Cal standout scored 28.7 points on almost 22 shots per game, and had the ball in his hands on just about every possession. Brown was nuzzling up against Luka Doncic-level usage with only Payton Pritchard and Derrick White around to help with shot-making.

On top of the actual numbers, Jaylen Brown is also getting a public perception bounce on the shoulders of the Celtics' incredibly successful season and media coverage of his trade to Philadelphia. His leadership last year led the C's to a 56-26 record, the second-best mark in the Eastern Conference, and pundits across the globe have called the Brown-for-Paul George trade a fleecing.

Roll everything together, and you have a bubble ready to pop. Brown goes from being the number one option with Boston to, I believe, option 3-B in Philly, settled behind Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, and probably with a usage rate somewhat in line with LeBron James. Brown has never been the third option on a team, but the most recent data we have on Jaylen as the second fiddle was during the 2024-25 season in Boston, where he finished ranked #98 in 9-category leagues.

Jaylen Brown when asked about the “alpha” on the Sixers:

"Next question."

(h/t @bandsinthepaint)

pic.twitter.com/WY7cqfkFxP

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) September 28, 2026

The worst part of what will be a mess of a fantasy season is that it's not entirely clear which category will suffer the most. This past year, turnovers were a huge problem. The year prior, Brown struggled at the foul line and even a tad from the field. The lack of a clear punt option makes this pick even worse, and I would not consider drafting Brown anywhere inside the top-70.

Stephon Castle
Yahoo Rank - 77

It's just a 7th rounder, you say. Don't be so mean, Dan. The heck with that - this is a train wreck of a pick waiting to happen.

Fantasy basketball is supposed to be fun, and Stephon Castle is definitely that. But the Spurs guard has whopping holes in his fantasy game that require multiple punts to overcome.

Last year, Castle averaged solid counting stats at 16.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per game. The devil is in the details, though, as he finished outside the top-150 in 9-category formats due to three incredibly disappointing factors: Castle averaged just 1.2 threes per game, coughed up 3.2 turnovers per contest, and shot just over 73% at the foul line on 5.6 attempts each night.

Playing with rankings shows us that in order for Castle to reach the top-75, a fantasy manager would have to punt both free throw percentage and turnovers. This type of player could hypothetically fit on a team that starts with Antetokounmpo, but unless you are hunting this precise archetype, Castle is likely to finish the year ranked behind his ADP.

Dylan Harper nipping at Castle's heels for lead guard minutes only complicates matters further. Without the double-punt, I would not draft Castle inside the top-100.

Domantas Sabonis
Yahoo Rank - 22

Domantas Sabonis was recently the beneficiary of a Yahoo Ranking 12-slot bump. This is a mistake. At pick 34, I was already skeptical of Sabonis's potential. A full round higher makes me queasy.

Analysis on Sabonis needs to be extremely nuanced to fully understand the season about to unfold.

First, we need to throw out last year's injury-plagued, then tanking-plagued, clunker of a year. Sabonis is obviously better than an 8th-round value, where his ranking finished in his partial 2025-26 season.

But, in order to be fair, we also need to throw out Sabonis's best seasons too, as the Kings no longer run all of their offense through a Sabonis-and-De'Aaron Fox high screen game. They can't. Fox isn't there.

Those second-round fantasy seasons of days gone by were juicy and delicious, but a proper handicap of this coming season should instead look at the numbers Sabonis posted when he was a part of the offense and not the hub. To be clear, he was still good, but seven assists dropped to closer to five; scoring peeled back by two to three points per game, as well, and his overall fantasy appeal was more in line with a fourth-round pick.

To repeat: I am not firmly against drafting Domantas Sabonis, and his ranking is closer to accurate than the players above, but I feel strongly that he is going 1.5 to 2 rounds too early, and that can ruin a fantasy team when it happens in the early rounds.

Paolo Banchero
Yahoo Rank - 52

Wait! Before you let out that exasperated sigh I know is coming, give me a chance to clear up a few matters.

Paolo Banchero is no longer an untouchable, radioactive fantasy name. During the second half of the 2025-26 season, Banchero was right around the top-100 in 9-category formats, and jumped up 50 slots in 8-category leagues, which would have put him right in line with this Yahoo rank of 52.

That's great news in the long term.

In the short term, though, I don't buy his large free throw percentage leap. If that free throw bump sticks, I remain quite comfortable missing out on a player who might get to his ADP if you ignore turnovers.

I feel the need to stress one more time, though, that he is not far from a proper draft position. Even one or two rounds later would make all the difference. Contrast that with any of the past three seasons where you couldn't pay me to put him on my team.

VJ Edgecombe

Yahoo Rank - 79

If you thought my Jaylen Brown fears were massive as the third or fourth option on the Sixers, VJ Edgecombe's FIFTH spot on the totem pole pulled the very cool, hip, "hold my beer" meme. I'm young and with it, kids.

Edgecombe exploded onto the scene last season, but with Joel Embiid and Paul George each missing half their games, VJ had an artificially inflated usage rate that fell off a cliff when his team was briefly healthy in the playoffs.

This year, Edgecombe's situation only gets worse. VJ will hold some fantasy value due to a solid steals rate and a slightly above-average combination of rebounds and assists from his guard position, but shots will be terribly hard to come by, and I foresee a fantasy season hovering near the edge of the top-100.

The Do Not Draft List (No Matter What!)

Kon Knueppel
Yahoo Rank - 45

This name is going to create blowback, but I'm not here to make friends.

Knueppel is widely expected to make a giant leap in year two, but I disagree, largely because Knueppel seemed to take a second-year jump even before his career ever began!

Kon's rookie season was highlighted by one of the most efficient shooting debut campaigns of all time. Knueppel shot 42.5% from downtown and posted an effective field goal mark over 60%. Improving on those numbers feels close to impossible, especially when we consider the Hornets traded away their best passer in LaMelo Ball.

Last year, Knueppel finished at #66 in 9-category leagues despite the impressive shooting; his value was dragged down by exceedingly poor defensive stats (just 0.7 steals and 0.2 blocks). Even if we adjust for an additional field goal attempt per game, his overall ranking likely only ticks up into the top-50. Admittedly, that is not far off his pre-rank of 45, but drafting a player above their projected outcome is bad business.

Above all, though, Knueppel is hurt. Right this moment. Hurt. And it's a soft tissue injury that the Hornets have said won't even be reevaluated until the first week of the regular season.

In a best-case scenario, he gets cleared for basketball activity and then needs his own preseason and ramp-up before a return shortly into the season, but there is no guarantee that the timeline doesn't extend longer. In addition, we have repeated instances of players re-injuring the same soft tissues (be it a hamstring, calf, or other), putting the remainder of Knueppel's season at slightly higher risk even once he returns to the court.

I hate drafting injured players to start the year. Those picks pan out roughly 10-15% of the time, historically, and Knueppel's painfully high pre-rank takes this from a hard pass to the hardest of passes.

Brandon Ingram
Yahoo Rank - 55

The Purgatory Clippers revealed during Media Day that Brandon Ingram has a partially torn Achilles and will miss significant time.

There is absolutely zero reason to take a shot on a player that has been fairly injury-prone for years and may or may not see the floor this entire season. You should expect Ingram's ranking to fall precipitously in the next board update.

Do not draft him in standard leagues, it's really that simple.

Kristaps Porzingis

Yahoo Rank - 97

I was this close to talking myself into drafting Kristaps Porzingis in a roto, games-cap league in the 9th round, but recent news out of Golden State suggests that The Unicorn is continuing to deal with health issues and is not ready to play basketball yet. Porzingis has not been ruled out to start the season, but getting the OUT tag to start the preseason is a buzzkill at the very least.

Kristaps Porzingis is out indefinitely to open training camp with a health issue, per Warriors. Another immediate blow to their depth.

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) September 28, 2026

30-40 games played feels like an extremely realistic target for a player that may or may not be dealing with an autoimmune condition on a team that appears to be taking a gap year between competing.

Let someone else deal with this headache!

That's a Wrap

Avoid catastrophe. It's a simple concept that seems to get harder in the throes of a live draft.

Keep this list nearby, play a little fantasy Frogger dodging the Bust Trucks of life, and your team will stay competitive all season long.

Thanks for reading, and good luck this season!

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