NFL Best Bets for Week 4: Novig Sports Prediction Market

October 1, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 4 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

This Week 4 NFL slate is shaping up to be a juicy one! I love a slate with plenty of live underdogs, and I think this one fits the bill in that regard. With so much action this week, I've split my favorite bets and props into separate articles. This article will focus on game bets, with props to follow tomorrow.

I couldn't think of a better week to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets for Week 4 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator right here, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

NFL Moneyline Picks

All odds listed are from NoVig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Jacksonville Jaguars (43%) at Cincinnati Bengals

The wrong team is favored in this game! Sure, the Bengals beat the Jags head-to-head early last season, but since then, Jacksonville has been one of the better teams in the league on both sides of the ball.

Both teams are 2-1, but the Jags' loss in Week 2 on the road in Denver is a little less concerning than the Bengals' loss last week against Pittsburgh, in my opinion.

Jacksonville has been dominant in their other two wins, outscoring the Browns (who are 2-1) and Patriots (defending champs) 69-16.

I have the Jags favored by 3.5 points in my model, so this is an easy bet for me. They are only getting 2.5 points on the spread, so I'd rather go with them to win outright at significantly better odds.

Novig Tools Exclusively at RotoBaller

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

You can also shop for the best odds on bets and props at Novig using our new Prediction Finder Tool!

Win more on every winning market position with Novig, where you will consistently get a better return on your investment than traditional sportsbooks.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

All odds listed are from NoVig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Washington Commanders +3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts (49%) 

The Commanders are coming off a huge win last week over Seattle last week, while the Colts also got their first win of the season, hanging on against Houston in a close, low-scoring game.

Washington's win was not entirely fluky either. They did score a defensive touchdown and force multiple turnovers, but Marcus Mariota also filled in for Jayden Daniels admirably, tossing three touchdowns.

The Washington defense stepped up and shut down the Seattle run game, and now ranks second in the league in DVOA rush defense. If they can slow down Jonathan Taylor, I like their chances of keeping this one close, especially since the Colts have struggled defensively this year.

The Commanders are at home and get the critical half point we are looking for here while still being at plus money. I think it's too good of a deal to pass up.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers (53%) 

Feeling frisky? Let's back a quarterback with no NFL experience in his first start!

Jalon Daniels is an athletic quarterback who takes over for the Bucs this week with Baker Mayfield out for what looks like a month. The Bucs are 0-3 to start the year and are badly in need of a win to keep any hopes of a postseason berth alive.

The good news for Tampa is that the Packers have been dreadful, too. Their only win came by three points over the Jets, and their defense was destroyed by Minnesota and Atlanta in their two losses - two teams that are not exactly offensive juggernauts.

Perhaps Daniels energizes this offense and leads them to their best performance yet. Either that, or the Bucs pound the ball with Bucky Irving and follow the blueprint for beating the Packers that Atlanta showed last week.

I like the Bucs to bounce back here and get a win at home, but I am far less confident in them than I am in Washington or Jacksonville, so I am happy to take the 3.5 points here instead for some added safety.

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NFL Game Totals

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers OVER 50.5 points (54%)

This game on Sunday night should be a lot of fun. It's loaded with fantasy potential for season-long managers, and I am sure I'll have some exposure to it for prop bets, too.

Both teams have very capable offenses with very questionable defenses behind them! When I do my matchup ratings every week, I pull the advanced data to see which offenses, and more specifically which passing and running games, have big advantages against their weekly opponents.

Detroit checks in with the 7th-rated offense through the first three weeks and will face a Carolina defense that ranks 18th overall. The Detroit run offense has the third-best rating in my model, and don't be surprised if Jahmyr Gibbs runs wild.

But Detroit's defense has been horrible and enters this game ranked 28th overall. Carolina's 14th-ranked offense has moved the ball quite well this year. They were held to 18 points last week as they failed to get in the end zone, but scored 34 and 37 points in their first two games.

This is a high total, but the Lions have gone over this number in all three of their games this season, and allowed 24 points to a pretty mediocre Jets team last year. I think we see plenty of scoring in this one, and while it's tempting to back the Panthers with the points at home, I think the easier play is just to bet the over on the total instead.

Good luck if you're tailing these bets, and thanks for reading!

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