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Expert Week 3 NFL touchdown scorer predictions and anytime TD prop. Get our best bets on first touchdown props, and anytime TD odds for Sunday's slate of games.
The 2026 NFL season heads into Week 3 with another full slate of intriguing touchdown opportunities. Rather than chasing the shortest prices, we're focusing on players whose roles, matchup, and usage create value at the number.
As always, the key with volatile markets like touchdown props is price sensitivity. A player can be a strong touchdown candidate and still a bad bet if the odds are too short. These picks are built around finding the right mix of opportunity and payout.
Each week, this column aims to pinpoint touchdown picks using a model that factors in usage rates, goal-line opportunities, and match-up tendencies. Results are tracked based on the proposed unit bet using the best available odds in the market at the time of publication. Let’s get into it.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting Picks
Saquon Barkley, RB - Philadelphia Eagles (-115, DraftKings)
The Eagles travel to Chicago as 4.5-point favorites this week for a game with a total of just 41.5 points. A few things seem off in this spot, with Caleb Williams still listed as questionable to play for Chicago. Williams seems firmly on the doubtful side of questionable, and the Bears defense is getting too much credit for the help they got from the weather last week against a backup quarterback.
Barkley suffered a stinger on his first carry last week and sat out the remainder of the first half. He tried to return after the break, but was ultimately shut down after three additional touches. That injury is creating value this week in a matchup against a Bears defense that was gash for the 10th-most rushing yards last season.
BET: 1.15 units to win 1.0 units.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR - Seattle Seahawks (+100, FanDuel)
This price feels absurd considering the ridiculous production JSN has put up since last season. Smith-Njigba has seen 11 targets in each of Seattle’s first two games, hauling in 17 passes for 277 yards and four touchdowns.
Last week, he took the very first play from scrimmage 82 yards to the house before finding the end zone twice more. That explosive-play ability, combined with his massive and consistent target share, makes him one of the strongest candidates to score again in Week 3.
And now, Smith-Njigba is expected to get Sam Darnold back as Seattle’s QB1. Darnold’s return should only help his efficiency and gives JSN another reason to remain heavily involved in an offense that has already made him its clear focal point.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba takes it all the way to the house for a @Seahawks TD! 🤩
📺: FOX?FOX One pic.twitter.com/Nwq3Vlcdms
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 20, 2026
The matchup also works in his favor, as Washington has allowed 224 passing yards per game and seven touchdowns through the air in its first two games. The fact that Washington may struggle to keep up with the elite Seattle offense also feels irrelevant given JSN's status as the top priority in virtually every situation.
BET: 1.0 units to win 1.0 units.
Justin Jefferson, WR - Minnesota Vikings (+155, FanDuel)
Jefferson has already seen 15 targets through two games, turning them into 11 catches for 147 yards and two touchdowns. His Week 2 line against Chicago was quieter than his season opener, when he caught eight passes for 92 yards and two scores, but that game was impacted by poor weather conditions.
The Buccaneers have been a stout run defense for multiple seasons, while struggling to control opposing passing games. This season looks no different, with Tampa Bay allowing 234 passing yards per game, ranking 21st in the league, and already surrendering 1.5 passing touchdowns per game.
Jefferson is dangerous as both a deep threat and in the red zone. He's already seen three of Minnesota's five red-zone targets, and he caught a 39-yard bomb from Wentz in Week 1.
BET: 0.65 units to win 1.01 units.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR - Carolina Panthers (+190, DraftKings)
The biggest reason to buy into McMillan is the combination of volume and downfield usage, plus a possible breakout from his quarterback. Through two games, McMillan has a 23% target share, along with three red-zone targets, five deep targets, and a 39% air-yard share.
#PANTHERS WR TETAIROA MCMILLAN IS A TOP-FIVE WIDE RECEIVER IN THE NFL.
THIS PLAY IS ABSOLUTELY BONKERS.
🤯🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/k0DtVziFxk
— MLFootball (@MLFootball) September 20, 2026
Bryce Young has also thrown six touchdown passes through two games, and looks like he might be taking another step in his development. The QB's progression has Carolina looking like a competent offense for the first time in years.
McMillan is getting both the high-value targets near the goal line and the explosive-play opportunities that can produce a touchdown from anywhere on the field. Competent quarterback play is another reason to buy in heavily at a reasonable number.
BET: 0.55 units to win 1.05 units.
Trey McBride, TE - Arizona Cardinals (+195, FanDuel)
McBride has been targeted 23 times on 65 Cardinals pass attempts, giving him a massive 35.4% target share through two games. He has turned that volume into 17 catches, 136 yards, and a touchdown in each game. He has also received six of Arizona's nine red-zone pass attempts, a remarkable 66.7% red-zone target share, accounting for two of the Cardinals' three offensive touchdowns.
The matchup is the obvious concern, as San Francisco has allowed only one passing touchdown through two games. Even against a defense that has been excellent at limiting passing touchdowns, six red-zone targets on nine team attempts is difficult to ignore. If that level of usage continues, McBride has a legitimate path to extending his touchdown streak.
BET: 0.55 units to win 1.07 units.
Bonus First Touchdown Scorer Bet
George Pickens, WR - Dallas Cowboys (+3000, FanDuel)
Pickens has seen 14 targets through two games, including eight in Week 2, when he caught six passes for 40 yards against Washington. He has yet to score, but the target volume is encouraging, particularly in a Dallas offense that has leaned heavily toward the pass.
Fellow WR CeeDee Lamb has stolen the show from a production standpoint, but let's not forget Pickens is coming off a monster season that saw him find the end zone 11 times.
Pickens owns a 37% share of Dallas' air yards through two games while being targeted on 25% of his routes. That combination gives him legitimate big-play and touchdown upside, even if his receiving yardage hasn't caught up to the opportunity yet. To suggest Pickens isn't involved in the offense this season would be a huge mistake.
BET: 0.1 units to win 3.0 units.
