College Football Betting Picks - Expert Predictions, CFB Picks Against the Spread: Week 4

September 25, 2026

Mike's Week 4 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, September 26, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.

I finally came out ahead last weekend. That's a good sign heading into conference play for many schools. We have 53 more games this Saturday, with fewer FBS vs. FCS matchups. There are only 11 today.

I only pick FBS vs. FBS games. The lines are too hard to nail down involving FCS teams, and many casinos/betting sites don't carry them anyway. If you have questions about those games, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny. I will tell you a couple of games that I like, even though I will not assign a wager for them.

I've done pretty well with the FBS vs. FCS picks so far this year, but I don't see anything that I really like this week. It's mostly ACC teams playing FCS teams, and I don't trust any of them.

CFB Betting Picks for Week 4

I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.

I've had trouble finding the articles from 2019 and 2020, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.

If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.

I took a chunk out of my deficit last week. It's time to make some more of it disappear.

(1) Texas (-4.5) at Tennessee

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Texas has never been to Neyland Stadium before. Arch Manning gets to play in front of fans that absolutely adore his uncle. Oh, and the president will be there.

I'm happy to be watching this on TV. The truth is that Arch still hasn't played well enough in a road game to have me believing heavily in him. The thing is, Faizon Brandon hasn't really been tested yet.

Texas is some sort of a first test. I wouldn't bet on this one. It should be a great game.

Pick: Texas -4.5

Illinois at (7) Ohio State (-26.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Ohio State hosts Illinois on Saturday, which means…

ILLIBUCK IS BACK, AGAIN!

Only in college football do you have a wooden turtle trophy (left) that is a replica of a live snapping turtle that, in folklore, suffered an untimely death from alcohol poisoning at a party (right). pic.twitter.com/WZsiHFTvq6

— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) September 23, 2026

The once-proud Illibuck isn't contended for enough anymore. There is a game this year, but it won't be a contest.

Pick: Ohio State -26.5

Sam Houston at (11) Texas Tech (-34.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Texas Tech hasn't covered anyone by this. Not even Abilene Christian. This is not the 2025 version of Sam Houston. If you watched Landyn Locke at the end of last year and watched him this year, you would swear that it wasn't the same person.

In a sense, it isn't. Locke isn't making mistakes. He grew a lot in the offseason. Texas Tech spent the offseason trying to outrun bad publicity and bad decisions. This is too many points.

Pick: Sam Houston +34.5

Wake Forest at (16) Louisville (-13.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Wow, Wake didn't even lose to Miami by this much. Either Louisville is better than we think or Miami isn't a juggernaut for beating up on bad teams. I don't trust this line, but I'm not going against Louisville. This offense is just as explosive as Miami's.

Pick: Louisville -13.5

Colorado at Baylor (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Is Baylor better or worse with DJ Lagway? We're about to find out.

Pick: Baylor -9.5

Virginia Tech (-14.5) at Boston College

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

You can get even odds at this number, but I still like it. Virginia Tech whooped a Maryland team that has been outstanding in non-conference games in the last three years. This should be ugly. People, including bettors, forget how good James Franklin was in games that he was supposed to win.

Pick: Virginia Tech -14.5

San Diego State at Toledo (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I understand this. The Aztecs are traveling to the Eastern time zone for a 9 a.m. West Coast time kickoff. I also watched Toledo need a miracle to beat Temple at the Glass Bowl last week.

Pick: San Diego State +2.5

Colorado State at UTSA (-13.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This line suggests that Hauss Hejny will not play. I tend to agree. It looked like a hamstring injury last week. It would be unusual to see him play a week later.

If Hejny plays, I'm changing the bet. Vegas will too, so make sure you keep an eye on this line if you're betting it.

Pick: UTSA -13.5

UNLV (-13.5) at Akron

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

There is no juice on this line. Usually that makes me nervous, but I think that UNLV just ran into two of the top 5 non-power teams in Memphis and North Texas. The Rebels should cover.

Pick: UNLV -13.5

Ball State at Kent State (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Ohio State beat Ball State 56-3. They beat Kent 59-3. That tells me that Kent is three points better, not 3.5.

Pick: Ball State +3.5

South Alabama at Kentucky (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

South Alabama still hasn't disclosed what is ailing starting QB Bishop Davenport. Since we don't know what it is, we can't even speculate on whether he will play or not.

Vegas obviously doesn't care. Kentucky is capable of winning this, but this is a perfect letdown game if a guy like Davenport is healthy on the other side. If we get news on Davenport, I may change this.

Pick: Kentucky -20.5

UCLA (-1.5) at Maryland 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is a 10 a.m. Pacific Time kickoff against a team that is almost bulletproof in September. I like what Bob Chesney has done at UCLA, but this looks scary. I'm old enough to remember what Purdue did to the UCLA secondary last week.

Pick: Maryland +1.5

(3) Notre Dame (-27.5) at Purdue

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Ryan Browne has been impressive for the Boilermakers this year. Purdue is in no danger of winning this game, but this line feels high.

Pick: Purdue +27.5

Northern Illinois at Georgia State (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Georgia State is 3-0 against the spread this year. NIU has played exactly one good quarter of football. I'll bet on it not happening again, but lower it because I don't like the half.

Pick: Georgia State -10.5

Hawaii (-3.5) at Wyoming

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is normally a massive trap for a team like Hawaii, but Wyoming is downright awful this year.

Pick: Hawaii -3.5

(24) Oklahoma at (2) Georgia (-13.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

There is no juice on 14.5. If you like the Georgia side, you'll love Hard Rock. They have Georgia -10.5 and very little juice on it. This line is under 14 at many spots now, meaning that sharp money is starting to come in on Oklahoma.

It's hard for me to be objective on this one. Our offensive line has been terrible. The defense has been great. Playing keep-away from Georgia might work, but for how long? I want to believe that Oklahoma has a chance, but I'm not sure I have it in me.

Brent Venables was fired up at his presser this week. You would think that Oklahoma comes out and plays with a purpose, especially since Georgia hasn't been tested.

I really don't know what to do with this. The sensible side says Georgia. The heart says Oklahoma. The wife says, "Don't you dare bet on that game." She's usually smarter than I am.

If I'm picking this for you, I'm saying take Georgia.

Pick: Oklahoma +13.5

(4) Mississippi at (21) Florida (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This line reflects that Kewan Lacy is likely out, but Makhi Frazier should be back for this one. Not like it matters. Mississippi has this guy named Trinidad Chambliss who is at his best in big games.

Trinidad Chambliss is SPECIAL ?

Can Ole Miss make it back to back ranked wins this weekend vs Florida?

Or will the Gators get to Trinidad and win in the SWAMP?!? ?

Check out the Ole Miss Offense in ALL-22 film on our website NOW ⬇️https://t.co/TP1PN9OAvy pic.twitter.com/u1T9TBeMTa

— Menace 2 Sports (@Menace2Sports) September 24, 2026

Pick: Mississippi +3.5

(15) Utah (-8.5) at Iowa State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Utes have never been to Ames, Iowa, before. I hope they like Busch Light and corn. And close games.

I'm on the fence about this one, but I do believe that Utah gets either Devon Dampier or Byrd Ficklin loose at least once.

Pick: Utah -8.5

(17) Iowa at (18) Michigan (-5.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I love the under on this, even at 38.5. I hammered it when it opened at 41.5. I see this finishing a lot like the Oklahoma game except -- and I can't believe I'm saying this -- Iowa might have the better offense. They definitely have a better run game.

This game should be decided by four points at the most. This is too many.

Pick: Iowa +5.5

TCU (-3.5) at Central Florida 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Jordan Dwyer's back and you're gonna be in trouble. Hey now, hey now, Jordan Dwyer's back.

Dwyer for the lead‼️ pic.twitter.com/9ks8gNLfL2

— TCU Football (@TCUFootball) November 8, 2025

Pick: TCU -3.5

Boise State (-7.5) at Western Michigan

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This Saturday we get the BRONCO BOWL.

2 of the most best G6 programs this year - Boise State vs the Western Michigan.

Stats coming in:
Record: WMU 2-1 (or 3-0), Boise 2-1
Off Yards: WMU 968, Boise 1385
Def Allowed: WMU 1037, Boise 1295

Who do you got to win? ? pic.twitter.com/6vcMzrWUx1

— CFBSelect.com (@CfbSelect) September 24, 2026

This is blatant disrespect for Western Michigan. The line has dropped to -6.5 at one spot, but it's drowning in juice. I'd say this closes at -7, which doesn't make it any easier to pick.

This is the kind of game that Boise usually excels in, and I trust Maddux Madsen more than Broc Lowry if Boise has to throw to win.

Pick: Boise State -7.5

Connecticut at Miami (OH) (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Kalieb Osborne vs. David McComb is a low-key good quarterback matchup. The Redhawks came to play against Cincinnati, but will they have that fire against UConn? If not, Osborne will shred them as Mason Heintschel did.

Pick: Connecticut +3.5

New Mexico (-11.5) at New Mexico State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

A rivalry...and on the road...and with a three-headed quarterback. I don't think so.

Pick: New Mexico State +11.5

(25) Houston (-18.5) at Georgia Southern

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is too many. I love the fact that Houston is going there to play, but this offense hasn't looked good enough to cover a line like this yet.

Pick: Georgia Southern +18.5

Vanderbilt at Auburn (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is going to be another high-scoring affair at Jordan-Hare. It's going to be a hostile road environment for a true freshman, but Jared Curtis made some throws last week that most starting quarterbacks in college (and some in the NFL) can't make.

This is WILD!

7-Up so Vandy goes full Sprint Protection and Jared Curtis casually flips a 50yd Fadeaway Back Shoulder on the run ?

Young buck is going to be a problem when he figures it out! pic.twitter.com/r1MGf7f7fY

— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) September 22, 2026

Auburn should be better than they are. This line still feels a bit high.

Pick: Vanderbilt +9.5

Wisconsin at (13) Penn State (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Bettors are smashing the Wisconsin side, causing the line to bottom out. I get it. The Wisconsin offense has looked good, and even looked good against Notre Dame for a quarter.

This feels like a bit too much of an overcorrection. Rocco Becht has bordered on elite this year. The loss of Koby Howard might change that. I would be willing to commit to Wisconsin if this line were still above 10. Now, I'm not sure.

Pick: Penn State -9.5

Nebraska (-5.5) at Michigan State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Michigan State's defense played the Irish tough, but Nebraska might be a little more explosive. We'll see just how much Anthony Colandrea grew in the offseason here.

Pick: Nebraska -5.5

South Florida (-17.5) at Bowling Green

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

The Falcons are going to fool around and get Eddie George fired.

Pick: South Florida -17.5

Delaware at Virginia (-19.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Virginia isn't built to cover lines like this, and Delaware is built to avoid being covered like this. This line feels out of whack.

Pick: Delaware +19.5

James Madison (-6.5) at Old Dominion 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

The James Madison and Old Dominion are playing for this new official trophy tonight in the Royal Rivalry (Dukes vs Monarchs): pic.twitter.com/doLjekZdfb

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 29, 2023

Old Dominion has never held that trophy and has only come close to winning it once. This isn't the year either.

Pick: James Madison -6.5

Central Michigan at (6) Miami (FL) (-41.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Believe it or not, this is one of Miami's better opponents...

Pick: Miami (FL) -41.5

Louisiana (-10.5) at Charlotte

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

By some miracle, Charlotte hung around with Appalachian State. Lightning never strikes the same place twice. It's Lunch (Winfield) time!

Dinner time ❌
Lunch time ✅ pic.twitter.com/d1RPoMQdlj

— Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns® Football (@RaginCajunsFB) November 21, 2025

Pick: Louisiana -10.5

South Carolina at (8) Alabama (-12.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I'm still not seeing the second coming of LaNorris Sellers that was promised in the offseason. We probably won't see it in Tuscaloosa either.

Pick: Alabama -12.5

Kansas State (-6.5) at Cincinnati

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

The K-State defense has been solid, and Avery Johnson has been almost unstoppable. I like this for anything under 10.

Pick: Kansas State -6.5

Oklahoma State at West Virginia (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

This should be a ranked vs. ranked matchup, but the AP Poll is voted on by a bunch of brainwashed plebeians. This might be the best game of the day.

Drew Mestemaker and company struggled on the road to open the season. Michael Hawkins Jr. didn't really start dominating until last week. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the game.

Pick: Oklahoma State +1.5

Southern Mississippi at Tulane (-18.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is Kadin Semonza's team now, and Tulane is better for it.

Pick: Tulane -18.5

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I liked what I saw from Kenyon Clay enough last week to know that Arkansas can cover this against Rickie Collins.

Pick: Arkansas State -6.5

Middle Tennessee State at Jacksonville State (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Ugh. I don't like the half, but I feel like this is an overcorrection for MTSU beating Nevada. Nevada is not a good team. They were dominated by Montana State at home the game before.

Pick: Jacksonville State -7.5

(23) Texas A&M at (10) LSU (-8.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Aggies haven't been able to run the ball or to stop the run. That is a horrible combination.

Pick: LSU -8.5

(20) Oregon (-3.5) at (12) USC

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

One Lincoln Riley choke game, coming right up! Courtesy of Dante Moore and that gaggle of talented offensive players. Jeremiah McClellan is an important piece, but Messiah Hampton will fill in nicely.

Another freshman finds the end zone.

First career TD for Messiah Hampton! #GoDucks

? @BigTenNetwork pic.twitter.com/GKNspJVrTs

— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) September 19, 2026

Pick: Oregon -3.5

Arizona (-10.5) at Washington State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Ismail Mahdi was a non-factor in his 2025 debut, but Arizona's offense is functioning just fine without major contributions from him. Tre Spivey stepped up, and Noah Fifita is playing like a guy who has spent five years in the same system.

Pick: Arizona -10.5

Troy at Utah State (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

The Aggies are getting way too much credit for hanging with Washington. I'm more impressed with Troy dominating Missouri for 20 minutes. Talk to me, Goose!

????'? ??? ??? ???? ?? ?? ?

TK Keyes cuts inside, and Goose Crowder finds him as he turns on the jets all the way to the end zone for the early lead - his third touchdown of the season. pic.twitter.com/OSSnETkkMs

— Troy Trojans Football 8x⚔️ (@TroyTrojansFB) September 19, 2026

Pick: Troy +3.5

Appalachian State at North Carolina State (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Oh, how I hate that half. It's enough to chase me off this line altogether.

Pick: North Carolina State -14.5

(19) Missouri at (24) Mississippi State (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

There has been a huge jump in this line. The public believes in Mississippi State and Kamario Taylor. So do I. MORE COWBELL!

Pick: Mississippi State -6.5

Tulsa at Arkansas (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I maintain that if Baylor Hayes were healthy that Tulsa would be favored. Do you guys remember Dexter Williams II? He's the architect of one of the best comeback victories of the last decade.

One of the craziest finishes of 2024

Georgia Southern down 23-3. Backup QB comes in late in the 4th quarter.

21 unanswered points, capped off by a game-winning TD with a minute left.

That backup QB was Dexter Williams, who starts for Tulsa at Arkansas this weekend ? https://t.co/0yoceYvJ6q pic.twitter.com/fEfh9wLjHy

— Top Tier Group of Six (@TopTierG6) September 23, 2026

I'm hyped just watching that! This is at least a half-point too high.

Pick: Tulsa +7.5

Florida Atlantic (-13.5) at Louisiana-Monroe

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I have the right to not let the Owls hurt me anymore. They're going to do it again, aren't they?

Pick: Florida Atlantic -13.5

Missouri State at (22) SMU (-34.5) 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

With the way Kevin Jennings is playing, this line is either too easy or too hard. I don't know...this still feels high.

Pick: Missouri State +34.5

Oregon State (-10.5) at UTEP

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Oregon State just beat the tar out of a really good Montana team. That half isn't much of a deterrent.

Pick: Oregon State -10.5

Massachusetts (-4.5) at Sacramento State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Pop Watson and Elijah Faulkner Connect Again
UMASS takes the lead 14-7 over Rutgers pic.twitter.com/RZ6K3Aa5Kn

— wok (@wokdior) September 3, 2026

POP POP! Okay, if you never watched Community, you probably won't get it. This is really low. UMass is 3-0 for the first time since 2007. That was also the last time UMass started 4-0. It's happening again.

Pick: Massachusetts -4.5

Rice at Fresno State (-13.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Fresno owns the distinction of being the only team to get dominated by the USC defense. They also embarrassed San Jose State last week. This is a tough one, but Fresno at home seems to be a thing.

Pick: Fresno State -13.5

Georgia Tech (-3.5) at Stanford

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I know that it's past Georgia Tech players' bedtime, but this is Stanford. Not even a good version of Stanford.

Pick: Georgia Tech -3.5

Air Force (-5.5) at Nevada

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The elevation won't bother Air Force. Neither will the Nevada football team.

Pick: Air Force -5.5

Minnesota at Washington (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

There is a lot of juice on 9.5, but no one has had the stones to push it above 10 yet. Many people are taking the 9.5 and paying the vig. I won't be one of them.

I understand the sentiment, but Minnesota hasn't looked like a good team yet. What are the chances that it starts here?

Pick: Washington -9.5

I have certifiably lost my mind this week. Not only did I pick Oklahoma, but I laid a max bet on UMass and have 10 four-point picks. If I bomb this week, I may be in a hole that I never get out of.

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