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Mike's Week 4 college football betting picks against the spread for Thursday, September 24, and Friday, September 25, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Week 3 featured the dumbest smart play ever. I've been watching college football for 42 years and have never seen anything like it. We'll cover that in the Week 3 results. Week 4 features fewer FBS vs. FCS games, so that's always good.
We have 58 total FBS vs. FBS games this weekend. There is one game on Thursday and four of them on an action-packed Friday night. What more can you ask for? That leaves 53 games for our Saturday enjoyment. I don't pick FBS vs. FCS games. It's too hard to get an accurate spread. Any online outlet will make a spread for you, but it usually doesn't have your best interests in mind.
If you have questions about those games, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny. I will tell you a couple of games that I like, even though I will not assign a wager for them. I've been right on five of the nine picks. Maine was the only one that helped us out last week. I don't see any that I really like this week, but Gardner-Webb +26.5 is tempting.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 4
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
I've had trouble finding the articles from 2019 and 2020, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.
If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.
I came out 26 points ahead last year. It has been a rough start for me this year, but I think I did better in Week 3. We'll check after I make the Thursday and Friday picks.
Liberty (-2.5) at Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Don't doubt Deuce Bailey at home.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +2.5
Army (-3.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A 3 pm game on a Friday? Sure, I'm down! This favors Army far more than Temple.
Pick: Army -3.5
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line reflects that Vegas doesn't feel like Braxton Woodson will play. I tend to agree, but UAB still can't stop the run.
Pick: Navy -6.5
Northwestern at (5) Indiana (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There is no juice on this number, which means Vegas is almost sure this will be a three-touchdown game. FanDuel is offering even odds on Northwestern +20.5. Someone is wrong.
In this instance, I usually side with the casinos over the online sites.
Pick: Indiana -21.5
Clemson (-1.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The weather won't save them this time.
Pick: California +1.5
CFB Betting Picks - Week 3 Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad?
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2021-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My results will follow.
Syracuse at Pittsburgh (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Syracuse throws interceptions vs. Pitt. It's what they do. No matter the year, no matter the quarterback. Steve Angeli was this year's victim.
(5) Miami (FL) (-20.5) at Wake Forest: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Miami got sloppy in the second half, but Darian Mensah's mastery of this game was a sight to behold.
Three weeks in and Darian Mensah is already rewriting the history books ✍️
✅ 24 straight completions Friday, tied for 3rd-most in a game in FBS history
✅ 35 straight completions over his last two games, an ACC record and one shy of the FBS record
✅ First FBS player in at… pic.twitter.com/cQ3uaOzyPT
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) September 19, 2026
I know that ESPN doesn't consider the ACC a real conference anymore, but the 24 straight completions were an ACC record. Mensah is going to set a lot more ridiculous records with this soft schedule.
(22) Houston at (13) Texas Tech (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Houston was this close to hitting my money line bet as well. What a great game!
That's the margin between elation & heartbreak.
It doesn't get closer than that, folks. pic.twitter.com/f6RZElqTUI
— Sansom Sports Media?? (@BracketNky) September 19, 2026
Coastal Carolina at Delaware (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Delaware run defense was impressive, and Sean Wilson couldn't be covered. He led the Blue Hens in receiving yards last year and has already tied his touchdown total from 2025.
(2) Georgia (-24.5) at Arkansas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't know what I was scared of. Arkansas is the Rutgers of the SEC. A morbid part of me wants to see them play each other. You know...for science.
Kent State at (6) Ohio State (-52.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Complain if you want, but Ohio State needed this after the gut-wrenching loss in Austin. Jeremiah Smith is already Ohio State's leading receiver. He still has at least 10 games left.
Buffalo at (14) Penn State (-40.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. This is the worst Buffalo team since before Turner Gill got there.
Tulane at Kansas State (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Avery Johnson hype train is just getting started. Can you imagine if ESPN still acknowledged the Big 12?
Bowling Green at Iowa State (-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That Bowling Green-Kent State game in midweek MACtion is going to be so blissfully awful. I can't wait!
Arizona State (-5.5) vs. Kansas at London: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was not a good game for Cutter Boley, but he didn't turn the ball over despite the weather not cooperating. That's growth from his 2025 season at Kentucky.
North Carolina at Clemson (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
North Carolina was driving down the field, looking like they were going to go up by two scores when there was a lightning delay under sunny skies. When the teams returned to the field two hours later, Clemson dominated the game. Weird, huh?
You know what's even more weird? Clemson has played three games this season. All three games have had weather delays. They're used to it by now.
Akron at Minnesota (-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I thought Akron was going to be a pretty good team after the way they finished 2025. I was wrong. Minnesota beat them without Darius Taylor.
North Texas at Texas State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This game was everything it promised to be. Both quarterbacks were perfect in the first quarter, but Torrance Burgess Jr. exploded for 214 rushing yards in this one. He had his first career 100-yard game last week. He liked it so much that he doubled it!
Former Indiana and Central Florida QB Tayven Jackson threw for 492 yards in the loss. North Texas racked up 605 yards of total offense. Man, this game was fun. Unless you like defense.
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin (-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Every conference has bad teams, but the MAC may have four of the bottom 10 teams in FBS. UMass isn't one of them!
Tyrell Henry set a Wisconsin record with 14 receptions in this one. Wisconsin has a quarterback who can throw with consistency. They haven't had that since Russell Wilson's one season in Madison.
North Carolina State at Vanderbilt (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You had to see this game to believe it, and even then, you still may not believe it.
A NEW MUSIC CITY MIRACLE! ?
Six seconds from a defeat, the unthinkable happens, and Vandy wins ? pic.twitter.com/ZDlDnQHv9i
— ESPN (@espn) September 19, 2026
Not only did Vanderbilt recover the fumble, but one more second got put back on the clock so they could kick the extra point to cover. I have never seen anything quite like this, and CJ Bailey may never recover from this.
Wyoming at Central Michigan (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's going to be a loooooooong year in Laramie. The Cowboys can't even run the ball this year.
Temple at Toledo (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The early afternoon games brought the heat in Week 3. If it weren't for the Vanderbilt game, this one would have grabbed headlines. Toledo scored two touchdowns in 15 seconds to tie the game and send it to overtime. Temple went for two and the win in their overtime possession and missed.
Kentucky at (9) Texas A&M (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Aggies again had trouble running the ball, and Marcel Reed couldn't bail them out. He would have thrived in a Mike Leach offense that relied on short passes. His deep passes need a lot of work.
This is the kind of win that Mark Stoops never got after his big win over Florida in 2018. It's a new, and likely better, era of Kentucky football. This is proof that they didn't spend all of their NIL money on basketball.
Florida State at (10) Alabama (-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There were two lightning delays in this one. Before the first one, Alabama was getting thrown around like a rag doll. After the second one, Alabama took over but still managed to blow the cover late.
(12) USC (-23.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The USC defense is going to have problems with teams that have good receivers. They play Oregon this week...
(16) SMU at (23) Louisville (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Kendrick Raphael gave SMU the run game that they desperately needed, but the Kevin Jennings interceptions really hurt the Ponies. Keyjuan Brown was an absolute monster for Louisville. Is there a changing of the Browns at running back?
KEYJUAN BROWN 58-YARD TD ?
? ESPN2 x @LouisvilleFB pic.twitter.com/QTKSA0xYkz
— ACC Football (@ACCFootball) September 19, 2026
Utah State at Utah (-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oh man, this was ugly. To add insult to injury, Utah State transfer Braden Pegan had 122 yards and two touchdowns against his former team.
UTEP at (19) Michigan (-35.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Man, I'm glad that UTEP led 14-7 at one point in the second quarter. It kept them from getting covered.
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was the sad end of this rivalry, especially since the Redhawks dominated the first half. Miami led 28-7 at halftime, then JC French IV happened.
Western Kentucky at (4) Indiana (-44.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
But how? We'll never know. It was relegated to Peacock. Why NBC pays all of this money for the Big Ten only to put them on Peacock is just mean. They won't even put a top 5 football team on network TV on a Saturday afternoon. This sport is so cooked.
Stanford at Duke (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Sheppard now leads the FBS in rushing yards, and he's a handful in the passing game. He looks like 2015 Christian McCaffrey.
Ball State at Liberty (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It was a nice game for Deshawn Purdie. It was a forgettable game for the Fighting Lettermans.
Louisiana Tech at Baylor (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
DJ Lagway got paid to come to Baylor, but it may have been a waste of money. Nate Bennett was amazing in this game for the Bears. He only had three incompletions, and he hit the receivers in stride. It will be interesting to see what happens when Lagway returns.
Mississippi State at South Carolina (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Kamario Taylor was erratic and threw an interception in the first quarter. He nuked the Gamecocks in the other three quarters.
Sit back and watch Kamario Taylor sling the rock https://t.co/X8RKUZagJX pic.twitter.com/8MWPeTU0NA
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) September 22, 2026
East Carolina at Old Dominion (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I knew this line was out of whack. What I didn't know was just how horrible both quarterbacks would be.
Florida International at Florida Atlantic (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The FIU defense was solid against Caden Veltkamp. FAU forced turnovers, but couldn't capitalize. This was an entertaining, yet sloppy, game.
Charlotte at Appalachian State (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Not covering Charlotte this year should count as a loss. What a horrible fourth quarter for App State.
Marshall (-4.5) at Missouri State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yeah, I lost the pick, but this was a really exciting game down the stretch. Marshall looks to be coming around.
Troy at (20) Missouri (-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Aside from the second quarter, Missouri did not look good in this one. The defense locked down on Troy in the second half, but the Missouri offense didn't look great.
Austin Simmons did a great job of taking care of the ball, though, and that is still the most important thing.
Florida (-2.5) at Auburn: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is this the year of the running back? After watching Jadan Baugh and Nate Sheppard, it just might be.
Jadan Baugh is one of the best PURE RUNNERS the NFL Draft has seen in a while.
Multiple NFL scouts reportedly believe Baugh could “finish” as a Top-15 overall player in the 2027 NFL Draft.
The Gators haven’t had a RB prospect like this in a LONG TIME ?? pic.twitter.com/eTvqB7PwgK
— Rookie Watch (@RookieWatxh) September 17, 2026
Georgia State at Central Florida (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The loss of Alonza Barnett III is a crushing blow for UCF and Barnett as well. Barnett returned from an ACL injury in 2024 to take James Madison to the CFP in 2025.
Keyone Jenkins looked good as the starter in this one, but he's no Barnett. The good news is that Jenkins was a lot better than what we saw last year.
Connecticut (-3.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
the 2027 qb class sucks so im looking for signs of life anywhere
UConn QB Kalieb Osborne has some pretty nice flashes on tape and is also a good athlete pic.twitter.com/qjgeA0RZjR
— Big Hank (@HankKnowsBall) September 20, 2026
We are seeing why Jason Candle brought Kalieb Osborne with him from Toledo. Honestly, it was the right move for both Osborne and John Alan Richter to stay at Toledo.
Western Michigan (-9.5) at Rice: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It turns out that I was right to be nervous about this. The Texas heat isn't for everyone (or anyone, for that matter).
Nevada (-3.5) at Middle Tennessee State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I did not have MTSU shutting down the Nevada run game on my radar. That was a strong defensive performance by the Blue Raiders.
Ohio at South Alabama (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It took a monster second half for Ohio to not get covered. They were outplayed for much of the game by backup QB Jared Hollins.
Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
JC French IV was close to elite in this offense. Max Johnson is looking better, but he's still no match for Caden Creel. Imagine saying something like that in 2020. Max Johnson was supposed to be an NFL Pro-Bowler by now if you listened to the Johnson hype in 2020 and 2021.
Michigan State at (3) Notre Dame (-29.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Michigan State is a lot better than last year. Cam Edwards is a big reason why. Why are we not talking about Nolan James Jr.? There is a non-zero chance that he's better than Aneyas Williams, at least in this offense.
The Notre Dame system runs much better with two strong running backs. Marcus Freeman has stacked that backfield again. If I were a running back, I would want to go play in this offense.
(7) LSU (-3.5) at (8) Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It's always nice when a game like this lives up to the hype. Mississippi stormed out of the gates, but LSU stormed back with a chance to win. At this point, we have to wonder if Mississippi overused Kewan Lacy last year.
Not that they used him frivolously. They needed everything they got from him, but it may have affected his versatility for this year. Fortunately for the Rebels, Trinidad Chambliss can do everything.
The thing that I found most fascinating about this game is that once it kicked off, it was all business. Most of Lane Kiffin's old players have little or no animosity for him. It's mostly (and understandably) from the fans. That differs from Lane's other departures.
(11) BYU (-17.5) at Colorado State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's tough to take this loss. If Hauss Hejny hadn't left the game on the second Colorado State drive, we'd be having a different conversation.
New Mexico at (24) Oklahoma (-21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Most of the Oklahoma fan base is willing to burn down the barn with the horses in it at this point, but what if New Mexico is just a good team? The Lobos were a sleeper pick by a lot of publications, mainly because of the defense.
Yes, New Mexico did this by playing three-card Monty with quarterbacks, but what are they supposed to do? This was Jack Layne's team. The system worked, and it kept the Oklahoma defense guessing.
That's actually a good thing for the defense going forward. I'm not sure why Oklahoma is not willing to run Lloyd Avant more. The offense has been nothing short of awful since the UTEP game.
West Virginia at (25) Virginia (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A lot of Oklahoma fans are watching Michael Hawkins Jr. with longing, especially with the continued struggles of John Mateer. I see this differently. I like Hawkins as a player, and I'm happy that he is in a system that knows how to use him. He was never a good fit in the Oklahoma scheme.
Had Hawkins stayed in Norman, he wouldn't be having this kind of success even if he had taken the job from Mateer (he wouldn't have). This couldn't be a more perfect fit for Hawkins, and anyone who knows college football isn't surprised by his success in this offense.
Michael Hawkins Jr. SHINED vs. no. 25 Virginia in Charlotte
?190 Passing Yards
?5 TOTAL TDS
?123 Rushing YardsHighlights?@WVUfootball pic.twitter.com/knYP9PPkkR
— Big 12 Studios (@big12studios) September 20, 2026
Colorado at Northwestern (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not surprised that Northwestern won, but I am surprised at how clueless some Colorado players still seem to be. The thing is...Deion Sanders may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he truly cares about his players.
He's teaching them so much more than football, and some just don't get it. Colorado is under a microscope because their coach is famous for a lot of things. He was supremely confident as a player, but always backed it up. Many want to watch him, and by association, his players, fail.
I hate that many in the media (and college football fandom) cheer for this, but the Colorado players need to know that the spotlight is always on them, waiting for them to do something. They never disappoint.
What I do get is the resurgence of Aiden Chiles, and I'm here for it. He got a raw deal at Michigan State, but that move has worked out well for both schools.
Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Maryland: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If you're surprised by the success of Ethan Grunkemeyer, I'll just assume that you stopped watching Penn State after the James Franklin saga ended. It's okay. I get it. Those who kept watching aren't shocked.
Kennesaw State at (15) Tennessee (-34.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was too swayed by ranked home teams covering monster spreads in the first two weeks.
UTSA at (1) Texas (-29.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Texas did not look like the top-ranked team in this one. They did when it counted, though.
Arkansas State at TCU (-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
TCU is going to be a really dangerous team when Jordan Dwyer comes back.
UAB at Louisiana (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ryder Burton had a rough game, but Lunch Winfield was a better runner than a passer. That led to the Cajuns not getting the cover.
James Madison at San Diego State (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
To understand how significant this is, you need to understand how good San Diego State has been at home. JMU allowed a ton of yards, but Camden Coleman made huge plays when he needed to.
Northern Illinois at Arizona (-33.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
An impressive first quarter by the Huskies kept them from getting covered.
North Dakota State (-26.5) at Sacramento State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bison get off to great starts, but teams have come back on them in the second half in back-to-back weeks. This might become a problem.
Purdue at UCLA (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It may have been different had Nico Iamaleava not left the game, but I doubt it. Ryan Browne has been nothing short of impressive for Purdue this year. Madden Iamaleava still ran the UCLA offense successfully. This is on the UCLA defense.
Fresno State (-6.5) at San Jose State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Luke Weaver did have a lot to say about this outcome, particularly with his four interceptions...
College Football Betting Season Results
This was around the time of the year that I started turning my 2016 season around. It's a marathon, not a sprint. I had a strong week, going 32-25 for my first winning week of the season. I'm still a disappointing 67-89, but a few more weeks like this, and I'll be fine.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 5-2 (10-11) = -1
2. 9-13 (25-34) = -18
3. 13-7 (25-20) = 15
4. 4-2 (5-17) = -48
5. 1-1 (3-7) = -20
I won 21 points this week, but am still down 72 for the season. It's a long road back, but I'm feeling optimistic. We've learned a lot in three weeks.
More College Football Analysis
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