Fantasy Football Tight Ends: Stats, Sleepers & Surprises You Need to Know

September 17, 2026

Rob breaks down the fantasy football tight end landscape by looking at snaps played, routes run, and targets earned to provide you with in-depth information about who to trust in Week 2 (2026).

The tight end position is often the noisest for fantasy football. It's incredibly common for random no-names to finish in the top 10 on any given week. Because of the lack of options and the position's general scarcity, fantasy managers often get caught chasing yesterday's points.

On the surface, adding a tight end who had 15 points last week and starting them doesn't seem like a terrible idea. Then you find out they ran only 10 routes and just happened to fall into the end zone twice, and suddenly you have a completely different opinion.

This article dives deeper into the tight end position to give you an edge in your fantasy football league by deciphering the box score and determining which performances we can trust and which are fool's gold.

The Mike Gesicki Mirage

Gesicki finished with 16.3 half-PPR points in Week 1, ranking TE4. He had seven targets (tied for fifth), five receptions (tied for fourth), and 78 yards (tied for third). He also found the end zone, something only 12 tight ends did. All those numbers make Gesicki look like someone to run to the waiver wire for, right? Well, not so fast.

More statistics paint his first game in a much different light than the simple box-score stats we've already established. While catches, yards, and touchdowns matter in fantasy football, predicting future production is best done by looking elsewhere.

Out of 34 tight ends who finished with at least three tight end targets, Gesicki's route-run rate ranked just 27th at 45.9%. This stat alone wipes out yesterday's production because route rate is incredibly important for future fantasy production. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

If you're not on the field running routes, you're far less likely to get targets, which ultimately leads to fewer catches, yards, and touchdowns. By all accounts, Gesicki's Week 1 was a massive outlier. These weeks happen, especially when your quarterback is Joe Burrow and teammates Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have lackluster performances.

Their lack of production allowed Gesicki to post an absolutely insane and completely unsustainable 41% target rate. For perspective, Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the league last year with a 33% target rate, and superstar tight end Trey McBride was at 25%.

This was an all-noise, no-signal kind of performance. Fantasy managers can largely chalk this one up to the randomness of fantasy football and small sample size. We'll keep an eye on Gesicki to see if his efficiency leads to more routes, but until then, he can safely stay on waivers.

Isaiah Likely Breaking Out

If you were lucky enough to draft Likely late in your league, you look to have unearthed a gem. None of this should be surprising, as offseason beat reports indicated Likely was operating as Jaxon Dart's favorite target in camp while Malik Nabers rehabbed from his torn ACL. Fantasy managers just couldn't predict how dominant Likely would be.

Likely's route share was 69.7%, ranking 14th among 34 qualifying tight ends with at least three targets in Week 1. We'd ideally like to see that number creep up to the 75% range, but this is a workable number fantasy managers shouldn't be put off by, especially given the rest of Likely's utilization.

Giants TE Isaiah Likely v. Cowboys

-8 Catches
-78 Yards
-2 TD
-100% Catch Rate
-4 3rd Down Conversions

Everything & more than what we expected in his Giants debut pic.twitter.com/GkPJVXSgLh

— Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinner_) September 14, 2026

Likely had a 31.8% first-read target share, second only to Trey McBride. This tells us that when Likely was on the field and running a route, the team was highly motivated and focused on getting him the football. This translated into a 27.6% target share and a 35% target rate, both numbers ranking in the top five. He's clearly a focal part of this passing offense.

Likely's utilization should give fantasy managers significantly more confidence than Gesicki's. While Likely won't always catch two touchdowns, the offensive game plan focused on getting him the football near the end zone.

He had four red zone targets, which paced all tight ends in Week 1. With the Giants' offense as well, and specifically Dart, looked, the Giants' offense may very well have been underestimated all summer because of Matt Nagy and Greg Roman on the coaching staff. However, the Week 1 game plan was extremely effective.

Likely is a set-it-and-forget-it TE1. He has legit top-five potential in 2026. There is no reason to believe this is a sell-high moment. Everything about Likely's performance, Dart's play, and the offense's efficiency should give fantasy managers plenty of confidence moving forward.

Dalton Kincaid League-Winner

Since his rookie season, Kincaid has been a breakout candidate. His advanced metrics and efficiency stats have consistently stood out. The problem has been health and playing time. Last year, he had a 37% snap share and a 44.2% route share. Injuries hurt a lot of that.

But injuries weren't the only factor behind his breakout. Last year, Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes played over 50% of the team's snaps in 12-personnel. In Week 1, Kincaid played over 50% of the snaps in 12-personnel. He also logged a snap rate over 66% in 11-personnel on early downs and over 50% in 11-personnel on third downs.

If Bills TE Dalton Kincaid can just stay healthy, he looks poised to have an All-Pro caliber season.

Discussed what makes him so good with @benjaminsolak. pic.twitter.com/jkMQO8qyS5

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) September 16, 2026

We've seen Kincaid be as effective and efficient, on a per-route basis, as he was on Sunday. We haven't seen Kincaid on the field as much, though. More importantly, reports out of Buffalo suggest this isn't a one-off trend, but something to watch.

Reports indicate Kincaid is the healthiest he's been since entering the NFL. They've also said Kincaid is bigger and stronger, and that there's more confidence in his run-blocking. In 2025, Kincaid was on the field for just 21.8% of rushing plays. In Week 1, that number was at 85%.

If Kincaid stays healthy and continues playing this much, he'll smash, just like he did in Week 1. While D.J. Moore had a very encouraging Week 1, Kincaid matched him in many stats.

Moore had seven targets, to Kincaid's six, but they each had the same 29% target rate. They finished with the same number of receptions (five), but Kincaid outpaced Moore in yards, 130-to-100.

Last year, when Kincaid was on the field, he led tight ends in yards per route run and target rate. He also led fantasy points per route run and first downs per route run. We never needed Kincaid to improve; we literally just needed him to play. Fantasy managers got that, and more importantly, he avoided the Wednesday practice report, indicating he came out of the extra workload unscathed, a great sign for future production.

Kincaid put his insane efficiency on display in Week 1 again, finishing with a 6.19 yards-per-route run average, which was first among tight ends. That number won't stay there, of course, but it's great to see the added snaps and volume didn't hurt his efficiency. He's a must-start tight end who looks to be on the verge of a true breakout, potentially a superstar-kind of season.

Jake Ferguson Is In Trouble

These signs were evident last year already, but CeeDee Lamb's missed ankle injury did its best to cover up these concerns. However, when Lamb and George Pickens were on the field last year, Ferguson's utilization and production dipped significantly. He averaged just a 14.4% target share and averaged just 7.4 half-PPR PPG during these contests.

Truthfully, Lamb and Pickens are the least of Ferguson's concerns. We know these two dudes are alphas. Given Dallas's pass-heavy offense and high pass volume, Ferguson could still be fantasy-relevant at tight end as Dallas's No. 3 target. The problem is Ryan Flournoy. Last year, he caught 40 passes for 475 yards and 4 touchdowns on 56 targets.

Reports indicate Flournoy had a great offseason, and his ascent is cutting into Ferguson's workload. These two guys will not affect Pickens and Lamb over the long course of the season, but they can cannibalize each other. This is more significant for Ferguson since Flournoy wasn't fantasy-relevant last year.

In Week 1, Flournoy had four targets. Ferguson finished with just two. Ferguson's 69.4% route share isn't a major red flag, but his target rate is. Last year, he had a 21% target rate. That fell to just 8% in Week 1. While it won't stay that low all season, it's worth noting that Flournoy earned more targets than Ferguson on two fewer routes.

Ferguson no longer seems locked into the No. 3 target in Dallas's offense, but rather the 3A or 3B with Flournoy on any given week. Since he was already a fade with Lamb and Pickens fully healthy, Flournoy earning more targets is close to a death sentence for Ferguson's fantasy value. Without better production in Week 2, Ferguson will find himself on the waiver wire soon.

What about Pat Freiermuth and Evan Engram?

A few oldies, but maybe a few goodies? We've seen Freiermuth and Engram be fantasy-relevant before. They're not bad players, but they're getting older, and recently, their roles have left quite a bit to be desired. However, both seem to have fallen on good fortune because their Week 1 roles and production are something fantasy managers need to keep an eye on.

Last year, Freiermuth had a 50% route and snap share. He was on the field for only 56% of pass plays and 49% of their red zone plays. He was largely an afterthought in Arthur Smith's offense. The Steelers brought in Mike McCarthy, who has often implemented pass-heavy offenses that utilize 11-personnel at a high rate.

This change in offensive operating structure led to a dramatic role change for Freiermuth. His snap share rose to 72%, and his route share to 70%. He also played 100% of the team's six red zone snaps. It doesn't take a fantasy football genius to see how much better those numbers are. He finished with five targets, five receptions, 46 yards, and a score.

The Steelers also had a 67.2% neutral pass rate, which ranked seventh in the NFL. None of these changes are unexpected given the switch from Smith to McCarthy, but it's good to see Freiermuth as one of the biggest beneficiaries.

I won't be surprised if Freiermuth puts forth a Juwan Johnson- or Jake Ferguson-type season. He should be viewed as a mid-TE2 with some upside if Aaron Rodgers can elevate this passing offense even a little.

Offseason reports indicated Engram would have a much larger role in the offense. Given just how putrid his utilization was last year, it was understandable that fantasy managers were skeptical, especially after the acquisition of Jaylen Waddle.

Last year, Engram had a 52% route share and a 42% snap share. He played on 58% of the pass plays in 2025 and just 40% of their red zone snaps. His route share increased to 61%, and his snap share increased to 64%. He was on the field for 73% of pass plays and 50% of red-zone snaps.

Bo Nix and Evan Engram answer back!

DENvsKC on ESPN
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/XqBqVgUH5C

— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2026

He didn't see the same uptick as Freiermuth, but it's notable nonetheless. He caught all four of his targets for 43 yards and a touchdown, putting him on the fantasy radar. His role still isn't great, but it's better!

Engram has firmly put himself on the watch list and is someone fantasy managers can consider for streaming matchups. His role could also grow if Waddle struggles in his new environment or if Courtland Sutton experiences an age-related decline.

Week 2 Rankings

1. Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks (Superstar)
2. Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions (Ascending Star)
3. Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings (Star, Ignore Week 1 Blip)
4. Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (Star, Major Rebound Candidate)
5. Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (Worried about Daniel Jones)
6. Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (Superstar, Slight Snap Reduction, Trending Up)
7. Isaiah Likely, New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (Ascending Star)
8. Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans (No. 2 Option, Strong Utilization)
9. Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (Fast-Paced Offense, No. 2 Target, Ascending Offense)
10. George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins (Superstar, Slight Snap Reduction, Trending Up)
11. Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Great Player, Putrid Offense, More Target Competition)
12. Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs New Orleans Saints (Zay Flowers Might be Out or Limited)
13. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts
14. Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
15. Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
16. Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals
17. T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
18. Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders
19. Hunter Henry, New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers
20. Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
21. Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers
22. Evan Engram, Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars
23. Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cleveland Browns
24. Kenyon Sadiq, New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers
25. David Njoku, Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

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