Adam Koffler's Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Week 1 Sleepers, Busts

September 12, 2026

Adam Koffler's fantasy football starts and sits for Week 1 of the 2026 season. His top sleepers and busts on the start-sit bubble, including Tre Tucker and Marvin Harrison Jr.

We are BACK! Last season, I had a weekly column on risers and fallers coming out of the previous week. This season, we're changing things up a bit, rolling with a weekly start/sit column for the week ahead.

If you're looking for advice on whether to start DeVonta Smith or Luther Burden III, this article probably isn't for you. Those guys are weekly starters, every week, until further notice. The goal of this article is to take buzzworthy players being talked about to give you my opinion on whether I'd start or sit them that week.

Here are my top trending starts and sits for Week 1, with some bonus names given for kicks. Let's dominate those fantasy football leagues this season!

Week 1 Fantasy Football Starts

Tre Tucker - WR, Las Vegas Raiders

Brock Bowers it out for Week 1. Michael Mayer slots in as the TE1, and he's a good bet to see a high target share against a Dolphins defense that allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season.

But what about everyone else? Without Bowers and his 25-30% target share, someone has to get targets. Why not Tre Tucker? He averaged 48.8 receiving yards on 5.8 targets per game in five games without Bowers last season.

Here's a guy new head coach Klint Kubiak has raved about all offseason.

Tre Tucker marked safe

has been the Raiders’ clear WR1 all offseason https://t.co/PHzVDjDWQs pic.twitter.com/UKURkCEFnt

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 23, 2026

But how do we know that? Well, Tucker mostly sat in the preseason while newcomer Jalen Nailor got snaps with the second-team offense.

Kubiak's offenses the last two seasons have produced a ton of explosive plays for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed.

Neither Tucker nor Nailor has ever earned a massive target share, but Tucker's the guy with a 40-point fantasy game on his resume (Week 3 last season).

He runs a 4.40-40, has a ton of burst, and will be moved around the formation by Kubiak in Week 1. Without Bowers soaking up double-digit targets, Tucker could be on the precipice of a mini breakout vs. the Dolphins.

Great example of how you build culture:

Clip 1: Tre Tucker motions into an insert on an IZ run and digs out the safety to help Jeanty get 10 yd run

Next play: Motion Tucker into an out route and get him an easy target that turns into an explosive

Kubiak knows what he's doing pic.twitter.com/MkQjVfsq5Q

— Dan Fornek ↗️ (@fornekdf) August 14, 2026

Christian Watson - WR, Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs won't play in this one as he remains on the Commissioner's Exempt List. That leaves the running game in the hands of MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks, and newcomer Kaleb Johnson.

Naturally, that means more passing for the Green Bay Packers as the trust lies in Jordan Love, Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, and Matthew Golden.

We've heard over and over again this offseason that the Packers hope to air it out more in 2026, putting the ball in the hands of their best playmakers. The target tree is condensed with Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks now gone.

Watson is going to play in two wide receiver sets alongside Golden, who has never broken a 19% target share in any one season dating back to his high school days. Watson, on the other hand, led Packer pass-catchers in numerous efficiency metrics after returning from ACL reconstruction last season.

And then there's Kraft, another weapon for Love. Despite saying he's good to go and not on any kind of snap count, he's returning from an ACL tear of his own. In Watson's first game back from a torn ACL, he played just 55% of the snaps.

This game should be close (MIN -1.5) and high-scoring (O/U 46.5). Watson won't come off the field much and is a good bet to go off against PFF's 22nd-ranked secondary.

LaFleur says Christian Watson and Green Bay's three main receivers need to be on the field for as many snaps as possible.

Matt LaFleur: “I think really what it's gonna be is gonna be more opportunity for everybody in that room—or I should say for our three main guys—and we need… pic.twitter.com/ae0ZBR7T6X

— MicNuggets (@micnuggetsnfl) September 9, 2026

Kenny Gainwell - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sean Tucker and Jalen McMillan are both doubtful for Week 1. That leaves Emeka Egbuka (who barely practiced in the last month), Ted Hurst III (rookie), Chris Godwin, and Cade Otton as the weapons at Baker Mayfield's disposal.

And then there's Gainwell out of the backfield. All camp, the buzz around the Bucs new weapon out of the backfield is that he's a "freak of nature." Mayfield was shocked at how polished he is as a receiver.

This offseason, the Bucs prioritized signing Gainwell over keeping Rachaad White. They handed Gainwell $10 million guaranteed. That's a lot of money for a "backup" running back. The thought here is that he'll be used in tandem with Bucky Irving, in what could become a true 50/50 split.

In Week 1, he'll face a Bengals defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs.

Heck, he might even be used around the goal line more than Irving (eyes emoji):

Kenny Gainwell Could Feature Prominently in Red-Zone, Goal-Line Situations https://t.co/SIa3vUME1e

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) September 8, 2026

Juwan Johnson - TE, New Orleans Saints

With Jordyn Tyson out for the start of the season, Johnson looks like the number two option in what should be an improved Saints offense in Year 2 under Kellen Moore.

Once Tyler Shough took over in Week 8 last season, Johnson had 7+ targets in five of 11 games and caught 4+ balls eight times. In those 11 games, he averaged 52.2 yards per game.

Johnson's 18.1% target share and 20.2% target rate last season were both career highs for the seventh-year tight end.

With Taysom Hill no longer lurking in the Saints' TE room, it'll be Johnson and Noah Fant opening in Week 1. Rookie Oscar Delp has already been ruled out with a hamstring injury.

The matchup against Detroit is a really good one too, with the Lions having allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends last season. The Saints are 7-point road underdogs and will likely have to air it out to keep up with a high-powered Lions offense.

Bonus starts: Dalton Kincaid @ HOU, Jaylen Warren vs. ATL, Quentin Johnston vs. ARI

Week 1 Fantasy Football Sits

Quinshon Judkins - RB, Cleveland Browns

I know you drafted Judkins in the fifth round, but this isn't the week to start him. The Browns find themselves as 8.5-point underdogs vs. a stout Jaguars run defense that yielded the fewest rushing yards to running backs last season.

Interestingly enough, they allowed the eighth-most receptions to running backs last season. That becomes a problem for a back like Judkins, who came off the field in obvious passing situations last season. Sure, there's a new play-caller in Cleveland, but Dylan Sampson profiles as the pass-catching threat in this backfield.

Last season, Judkins had three or fewer targets in 11 of 15 games and ranked just 51st among running backs with a 26.6% route participation rate. If the Browns get off to a slow start (as projected), it could mean more Sampson and less Judkins throughout.

D.J. Moore - WR, Buffalo Bills

In his first game as a Buffalo Bill, Moore draws an incredibly tough assignment against Derek Stingley Jr. and the Texans defense. Houston allowed the fourth-fewest receptions to opposing wide receivers last season.

While Moore has reportedly looked great this offseason, Josh Allen has a level of comfort with top pass-catching options Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir, who could find more success between the hashes than Moore does on the outside.

Bills new offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. has also hinted at more pass game involvement for James Cook III out of the backfield.

Nobody on the Bills eclipsed 100 targets last season, and Moore showed signs of decline last season in Chicago. Betting on him in his first game with his new team against a tenacious Texans defense is asking a lot.

MarShawn Lloyd - RB, Green Bay Packers

Everyone is amped up to get Lloyd into their lineups, and rightfully so. The former 2024 third-round pick has just seven career NFL touches in two years due to multiple injuries and is finally healthy to start a season.

Josh Jacobs remains on the Commissioner's Exempt List, so by default, Lloyd is the "next man up." But he's never been a true workhorse. Even in college, Lloyd eclipsed 15 carries in just three of 32 games.

Trusted back Chris Brooks and newly acquired Kaleb Johnson could play a role early as the coaching staff aims to preserve Lloyd's health for as long as Jacobs is out.

His chances of getting a heavy workload after not having played since Week 2 of the 2024 season seem extremely slim. Maybe he starts out hot, but chances are, the Packers lean heavily into the passing game in Week 1.

Marvin Harrison Jr. - WR, Arizona Cardinals

Sure, Harrison Jr. has made some acrobatic one-handed catches in training camp, but he might just be the fourth option in Cardinals passing game this season.

Trey McBride was a target hog last season. That continued into training camp. The team also drafted an uber talented back in Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick. And if that wasn't enough, the Cardinals just recently signed Michael Wilson to a lucrative three-year, $75 million extension after his performances down the stretch last season carried over into the 2026 offseason program.

New Cardinals head coach (and play-caller) Mike LaFleur even went so far as to compare Wilson's intangibles to Puka Nacua.

So, what's left for MHJ after the Cardinals feed McBride, Love, and Wilson? In two NFL seasons, he's caught over five passes in just five of 29 games.

Bonus sits: Tony Pollard vs. NYJ, Tucker Kraft @ MIN, Brian Thomas Jr. vs. CLE

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