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Adam Koffler's 5 fantasy football breakout players and potential league-winning picks for 2026. His top late round breakout candidates include Blake Corum, Kenny Gainwell and more.
In my last article of the "must-haves" series, I bring to you my favorite late-round targets. These will be guys going in Rounds 9-12.
Check out my early-round targets and mid-round targets for a good overview of the players I want to build my fantasy football teams around this season. You'll notice there are no quarterbacks, and that's on purpose. I will typically wait until the late rounds to draft a quarterback, especially in leagues that reward six points per passing touchdown, where mobility becomes less of a factor.
By Round 9, we've already built the core of our team. That's cool and all, but the late rounds are what separate the amateurs from the experts. Let's all be experts this season. Here are my five must-have late-round league winners for 2026 fantasy football.
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Blake Corum, RB - Los Angeles Rams
Yahoo ADP - 99.5 (RB34)
Corum is a stud. He's also in an elite offense. The only problem (in past years) is that he's been "stuck" behind Sean McVay's boy, Kyren Williams.
However, after posting the best Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush attempt last season (+0.11) and earning the trust of his head coach, one can reasonably expect Corum's workload to increase in 2026.
Blake Corum rumbles 48 yards for the TD!
LARvsAZ on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/aroS7jo0iI
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
Per PlayerProfiler, Corum was second among running backs in explosive rating last season (122.9), whereas Williams ranked just 25th (100.5).
Where Williams gets the edge over Corum, however, is in the receiving department.
In 2025, King Kyren ran 420 routes with a PFF receiving grade of 64.7 (26th among qualified running backs). Corum, on the other hand, ran just 157 routes and received the second-lowest receiving grade (36.9) among qualified backs.
While small, Corum's route participation did increase slightly after the Rams' bye week last season. He went from an 11.9% route participation rate to an 18% route participation rate.
His 27.8% route participation in the Conference Championship Game was a season high. Meanwhile, Williams' route participation that game was just 36.1%.
At a minimum, the trend was favorable for Corum as the season progressed. That's great, but he doesn't even need that receiving work to be successful in this offense.
The Rams have the highest projected implied total per game in 2026 and will play with the lead in most games.
That's awesome news for Corum, especially considering Williams is the back more likely to be on the field in trailing game scripts.
If this team is as good as we think they'll be in 2026, Corum is going to be a big part of that. And if anything were to happen to Williams during the season that would force him to miss time, you're looking at a league winner.
Let's give Corum 15 rush attempts per game and see what happens!
Some insight into the Kyren Williams and Blake Corum split for 2026
Kyren = LDD + pass catching + 50% rushing + Short Yardage (probably based on how it’s written?)
Corum = 50% rushinghttps://t.co/tyDwi9giR5 pic.twitter.com/mNGZXtvm14
— Zain Dhanani (@DhananiZain) June 25, 2026
Josh Downs, WR - Indianapolis Colts
Yahoo ADP - 108.7 (WR41)
For three years, Downs has been cast as a slot-only receiver playing in three wide receiver sets. He's eclipsed a 70% slot rate in each of those three seasons. But things appear to be changing in 2026.
Head coach Shane Steichen is on record saying they're going to play Downs more on the outside.
And that seems to be coming to fruition. In OTAs and Training Camp alike, Downs has played both inside and outside.
With Michael Pittman Jr. and Adonai Mitchell out, and an aging Keenan Allen in, it seems highly likely Downs will become more of a full-time player in 2026.
He told the media he'd like to get back to being the target hog he was in college.
Josh Downs WILL be playing inside and outside this season, this all but confirms his increased role w/o Michael Pittman
Says he wants to get back to being a high-volume target guy like he was at UNC when he caught 101 and 94 balls in his sophomore and junior years https://t.co/7GCTswFmih
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 2, 2026
Allen will certainly earn some targets, but everything from Colts beat writers suggests he'll be used in a more part-time role in his age-34 season.
That leaves Downs to compete mostly with Tyler Warren and Alec Pierce for targets. While he should be ready for Week 1, Warren is currently nursing a groin injury.
Meanwhile, Pierce is still recovering from offseason ankle surgery. While just removed from the PUP, he's still likely not anywhere near 100%.
And while Pierce is a weapon for the Colts offense, he's not a target hog. His career-high target share is 18%, with a career-best 18.3% target rate.
Just two years ago, in 2025, Downs posted a career-best 25.6% target share and 29.6% target rate. Not only was he a target hog that season, but he was efficient, posting 2.22 yards per route run (21st among wide receivers) and 0.113 first downs per route run (13th).
The passing attack will run through Downs and Warren in 2026, consistent with what we've seen and heard throughout Training Camp.
He's one of the cheapest WR1s out there in an offense that looked really good last year when Daniel Jones was healthy.
Kenny Gainwell, RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yahoo ADP - 118.4 (RB39)
Gainwell broke out for the Steelers last season. He finished as a low-end fantasy RB2, totaling over 1,000 scrimmage yards on a career-high 187 touches.
His career-best performance landed him a two-year, $14 million contract with the Buccaneers. This came with nearly $10 million fully guaranteed.
Certainly, Gainwell will fit nicely into the "Rachaad White" role for the Bucs, but he's obviously going to do much more than that considering all of the facts.
Head coach Todd Bowles has consistently referred to Bucky Irving and Gainwell as "1A/1B." And we're seeing that play out in Training Camp.
Bucs 1st team RB recap from today’s 11/11’s:
Solo snaps:
Irving = 13
Gainwell = 8Joint snaps = 12
Irving touches joint = 4
Gainwell touches joint = 5Big Plays:
Irving x 1 (screen)
Gainwell x 1 (rush)— RosterWatch (@RosterWatch) August 6, 2026
Baker Mayfield has been blown away by Gainwell in camp. He called him "much more than a gadget guy." He's been making plays all over the field, and he's caught a few touchdown passes this summer.
Bucs beat writer Greg Auman went as far as to say he thinks there's a chance Gainwell could lead this team in receptions. Talk about a vote of confidence!
Irving dealt with a multitude of injuries last year, and his efficiency fell off a cliff as a result. In order to keep him upright and healthy, the Bucs will likely limit his overall touches.
That's where Gainwell comes into play. And it sounds like he could get a lot of the high-value touches (receptions, red zone, etc.), especially if Sean Tucker becomes a camp casualty as widely speculated.
If you're playing in a full PPR league, Gainwell should be on your radar as a viable RB2 for those who want to go WR-heavy to start their drafts.
This is a Kenny Gainwell tweet:
✅ 2nd among RBs in RZ targets
✅ Baker/Wirfs complimenting pass-catching skills
✅ KG has 3 rec. TDs last 2 practices
✅ Bijan 3rd on list, OC Zac Robinson is TB’s new OC
✅ Rachaad vacates 9 RZ targets
✅ Sean Tucker might not make 53-man roster https://t.co/Z71cJKiOHP— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 26, 2026
Michael Pittman Jr., WR - Pittsburgh Steelers
Yahoo ADP - 120.0 (WR48)
Despite increased competition for targets last season (Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce used more in the passing game), Pittman still earned a 21% target share.
And with Daniel Jones under center, Pittman ranked 19th in fantasy points per game (14.1). Now he goes to Pittsburgh to play with Aaron Rodgers, alongside DK Metcalf.
His competition for targets goes from Pierce, Warren, Josh Downs, and Adonai Mitchell to Metcalf, Roman Wilson, Germie Bernard, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington.
That is a night-and-day difference.
Metcalf's role is locked in. He's an outside receiver with a high average depth of target (aDoT). Per PlayerProfiler, he played just 13.2% of his snaps from the slot and was rarely put in motion (1.2%).
Metcalf earned just a 22% target share despite minimal competition for targets. In fact, his biggest competition for targets was Kenny Gainwell, who logged a 16% target share.
Guess what? Gainwell is no longer there, which is great news for Pittman considering his skill set and his prowess on short and intermediate routes.
Steelers beat writer Nick Farabaugh believes it'll be Pittman as the "chain mover" for Rodgers. That's a valuable role.
In 2024, that was Garrett Wilson, who earned a 25.2% target share with a 9.3 aDoT. In 2023, Pittman was fifth among wideouts in target share (28.1%) with an aDoT of 7.8 yards. He finished as a top-15 wide receiver that season despite catching just four touchdowns.
Sure, that was a few years ago now, but Pittman has always been an above-average target earner. Now he enters a situation that should let him once again be the alpha in the room.
In the 10th round? Sign me up!
Terrance Ferguson, TE - Los Angeles Rams
Yahoo ADP - 126.8 (TE22)
Ferguson caught just 11 balls on 25 targets last season but finished with 231 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie.
This one takes some projecting due to his limited role, but the stars are starting to align.
For starters, Ferguson told reporters he's slimmed down and is learning all positions in the offseason (F, Z, X, Y).
Terrance Ferguson the ideal kind of later-round flier in deepish redraft leagues. Put him on bench, see if the reports about his role (see below) come true.
Also, some hype here on 33-year-old Davante Adams. He's too cheap if he still has it.
Via The Athletic: pic.twitter.com/uPXWRIMOxD
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) August 25, 2026
He's also running more intermediate routes, which should increase his target share. That'll be needed for every-week consistency, considering his aDoT was a massive 18.6 yards.
With a loaded tight end room and a really good run game, it's not likely Ferguson takes on an every-down role. But guess what? We don't need that from him in order to get spike weeks in fantasy football.
This guy will get deep targets. Per Fantasy Points Data, he led all tight ends in that category despite logging just a 35% route participation rate.
Ferguson won't be the number one or even number two target on his team; that's a given with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams on the field.
However, with such a thin wide receiver room, there's been a lot of talk about him being "WR3" in this offense. That's a valuable role, especially considering this team is projected to score the most points in football this season.
The contingency upside comes into play if Nacua or Adams are forced to miss any time. Ferguson averaged 43.5 yards and a touchdown on just a 57% route participation rate in two games Adams sat last season.
You could do a lot worse with your last pick in 2026.
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