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Doug's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/25/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Happy Tuesday, RotoBaller Family! After a rare swing-and-miss last week, my daughter suggested I only recommend players with a .275 batting average because they are “not the best hitters, but they can hit the ball, so maybe they can get a home run.” Thankfully, I didn't take her advice and will use deeper analysis for this week’s picks.
The bigger message is to trust the process, even if you have a bad run. The best hitters in the game only get a hit three out of 10 times, so you’re going to be wrong more than you’re right. You made it this far with a process that works; stick with it. That’s what I’m doing this week! On with the picks.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/25/2026)
Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400, Hard Rock)
OK, so maybe I am taking the easy way out with my first pick since I’d like to get on the board again. But just because Pete Crow-Armstrong is the best bat in the game right now doesn't mean he isn’t also in a good position according to the data. Speaking of his bat, the man is an absolute beast. The NL MVP favorite has continued his monster season with a whopping six home runs over his past 10 games. He has hit at least one dinger in five of his past eight games.
Few batters have hit right-handed pitching with as much success as PCA, who has a team-leading 24 home runs, .298 ISO, and a .566 SLG against righties. He hits home runs more frequently at home (1 every 13.2 at-bats vs. 1 every 17.5 at-bats on the road), and is simply the best bat in baseball.
Meanwhile, Brandon Pfaaft has been nearly 50% worse against left-handed bats than he is against right-handed bats. That’s not even an exaggeration, as his slugging percentage allowed is 157 points higher against lefties. Although he has been solid as it pertains to allowing home runs, Pfaadt did allow three the last time he was on the hill.
I will happily take my swings with Crow-Armstrong in the hopes that this was more than a one-game anomaly for Pfaadt. A second bet I would consider is Michael Conforto for over 1.5 bases. He has two home runs and a .894 OPS against Pfaadt in 15 career at-bats.
Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280, FanDuel)
Let’s take one more easy swing with the MLB home run leader, Kyle Schwarber. Heading into Monday night‘s game, Schwarber seems to have busted out of his post-All-Star Game slump, blasting home runs on Saturday and Sunday. On the season, he has been a menace against right-handed pitching.
He leads the team with 27 home runs and sits behind only Bryce Harper with a .302 ISO and a .606 SLG against righties. While both are good bets, Schwarber is far more reliant on the home run. I trust him more to go yard in any single game than Harper, who has as many home runs since August 4 as Schwarber has in the last two games.
KYLE SCHWARBER WALK-OFF HOMER!
6 RUNS IN THE 9TH
9 STRAIGHT WINS
THE @PHILLIES!!! pic.twitter.com/PNwVEQveCN— MLB (@MLB) August 23, 2026
George Kirby is scheduled to be on the bump for the Mariners in this game, and he hasn’t quite been the stud everyone expected him to be this season. He hasn’t been entirely home run prone, but he’s allowed at least one in five of his last eight games, and his 4.18 ERA speaks volumes.
When Kirby struggles, it is usually against lefties, who have only struck out 17% of the time and have a combined .459 slugging percentage against him. If he’s not missing bats, and he’s getting hit hard, that is going to spell doom against a guy like Schwarber, especially when he is locked in.
