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Doug's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/11/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Schwarber, and others!
Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers! We have a full major league baseball slate today with a plethora of options for home run bets. There are so many gas cans on the mound that it made it hard to narrow down our four best bets for the night.
Just missing the list today were Teoscar Hernandez and Freddie Freeman, both of whom have hit Michael Wacha hard in their career. If I were to have written up five guys, Hernandez would have been the guy. Consider them a bonus play of sorts.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/11/2026)
Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+332, DraftKings)
Let’s dip our toes in the water with the frontrunner for the National League MVP, Pete Crow-Armstrong, who will take his shots against Washington’s Jake Irvin. PCA has hammered right-handed pitching this year, blasting a team-leading 19 Home runs with a .554 SLG and .279 ISO. His success comes from how hard he’s hitting the ball, with an astounding 47.7% Hrd% against righties.
Crow-Armstrong is on fire at the moment, compiling a .417 AVG with four extra-base hits over his past seven games. In nine career at-bats against Irvin, he has three hits, two of which went for extra bases.
Meanwhile, Irvin has allowed at least one home run in five of his past six starts. The six home runs he’s allowed during that stretch account for 60% of the long balls he’s allowed all year. Irvin has allowed more fly balls than ground balls in each of his past five starts, which makes it hard to keep the ball in the park.
This is especially true in Washington, which has been the most generous stadium for home runs this season, per Park Factor. Not only will I be betting Crow-Armstrong for a home run, but I will also parlay him with Ian Happ, who has also had success in his career against Irvin.
Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+317, Novig)
As crazy as it is to say, Kyle Schwarber went 17 straight games without hitting a home run to close out July and start August. That slump came to a crashing halt on Sunday when Schwarber blasted two against the Blue Jays. Given the streaky nature of Schwarber's season, I’m happy to hop on board for another run of home runs now that he’s back on the wagon.
Kyle Schwarber waited 17 games for this.
Then he hit two home runs Sunday.
The Phillies still needed Derek Hill’s walk-off hit in the 12th to beat Toronto, 7-6, after blowing a three-run lead in the eighth.
A much-needed win, in every sense. pic.twitter.com/nO0vk1WVQh
— Yirsandy Rodríguez (@Yirsandy) August 10, 2026
It helps that he’ll be facing Andre Pallante, against whom Schwarber has a .444 AVG and two extra-base hits in nine career at-bats. Pallante has only allowed 10 home runs on the season, but 60% of them have come at home, where his ERA is two full points higher than it is on the road.
He also doesn’t miss too many bats, striking out just 16.7% of the lefties he’s faced this year, and if Schwarber gets his bat on the ball, it’s as likely to go out as it is for any player in the league. He possesses a 44% Hard%, a .292 ISO, and has a team-high 23 home runs against right-handed pitching on the season.
