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Doug's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/28/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Shohei Ohtani, Jordan Walker, and others!
I don’t normally love massive slates of baseball games because it’s so hard to narrow down who I want to write about. Today, I didn’t have the problem at all, as there are a handful of pitchers I wanted to target with home run bets.
There are two plays in particular that I’m as excited about as I’ve been all season, and I can’t wait to place my wagers for these bats to go yard. I also love the countless parlay possibilities that this slate provides, and I will be responsibly suggesting some of those bets to you as well.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/28/2026)
Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+239, Novig)
While Luis Castillo hasn’t been great all season, it looked like he started to turn things around in late June, but he may have lost the plot right as the calendar hit July, allowing five total home runs in 12 innings over his past two starts. Castillo has been particularly bad on the road, giving up 71% of his home runs away from Seattle.
Today’s game takes place in Los Angeles, which has been the most home run-friendly park in the majors over the past three years by Park Factor. He’s been especially weak against left-handed batters, giving up a .495 SLG and a 38.2% Hard%. The Dodgers happen to employ some of the best left-handed power bats in the game with Max Muncy, Dalton Rushing, Freddie Freeman, and the best player in the game, Shohei Ohtani.
Ohtani has a history of success against Castillo, accumulating three extra-base hits in 11 career at-bats. Like Walker, Ohtani hasn’t produced a home run since the All-Star break, but he’s hit right-handed pitching very well all year, posting a .224 ISO and a .508 SLG. There’s no such thing as a player being “due”, but this is a great situation for Ohtani to break out of his mini-slump and get back on the wagon.
Jordan Walker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500, Bet365)
If you’re going to place a wager on someone to hit a home run, it might as well be the reigning Home Run Derby champion, Jordan Walker. He’s yet to go long since the Derby, but that doesn’t mean that he’s not hitting the ball well. Walker has an extra-base hit in four of his past eight games; it’s just that none of them have found their way over the fence.
For the season, he’s been awesome against right-handed pitching, hitting 16 of his 22 home runs and posting a strong .502 SLG and .219 ISO. Only Alec Burleson has had more success on the team against righties, but he has the advantage of being a left-handed hitter. In this matchup, that advantage goes away as Colin Rea has shown to be a reverse-splits arm.
Every Jordan Walker Home-Run This Season Contact Only. pic.twitter.com/6VuCbVP97G
— Baseball Performances (@MLBPerformances) July 15, 2026
He’s allowed a .479 SLG against righties, a number that is 50 points higher than he’s given up to lefties. He also strikes out a smaller percentage of righties, just 16%, meaning far more balls get put into play against him than an average pitcher.
Rea has really struggled over his previous four starts, giving up five home runs (1.7 HR/9). This game takes place in St. Louis, and Rea has allowed at least one home run in seven of his past nine road starts.
If Rea were to get yanked early, Walker will get to face a Cubs’ bullpen that has allowed more home runs than all but two teams this season. A smart hedge for a home run bet would be taking Walker for two or more total bases, and maybe even parlaying that with an RBI. If he goes yard, you sweep all the bets, but you’ve still got some outs if he merely hits one to the wall and drives someone in.
