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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/25/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Riley Greene, Pete Alonso, and others!
Welcome to another full slate of Saturday baseball, RotoBallers! We've got a ton of interesting angles to consider with tricky matchups all across the board. But I've still found four batters I like to go deep, so we'll have plenty of action to follow.
In this article, I'll be going over my four favorite home run props. We'll back two lefties, two righties, and of course, you know I'm mixing in a same-game parlay. Make sure to also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, July 25, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/25/2026)
Riley Greene OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+375, theScore Bet)
I always start off my research for these home run bets by simply looking at who's barreling the ball a ton and who's hitting the ball hard. Greene, one of my favorite lefties to consider, has been absolutely smoking the ball over the last two weeks. That makes him a perfect target to back.
Riley Greene goes deep for the 2nd time tonight 💪 pic.twitter.com/uhv9FkD3T5
— MLB (@MLB) June 30, 2026
He's posting a 27.3% barrel rate and a 63.6% hard-hit rate over the last 14 days. That's added up to just two homers, which feels very light. A high walk rate and strikeout rate will affect that, but he's keeping the ball off the ground. That should mean more longballs are coming for him.
He gets a matchup against Michael Wacha of the Royals. Wacha hasn't necessarily been struggling, but he has started to have some trouble with homers as of late, giving up five homers over his last three starts.
While he's been solid over the past couple of seasons against the Tigers, I can't help but back the really hot hitter here. The quality of contact that Greene's getting can't be ignored.
Wacha is likely to attack Greene with a mix of changeups, four-seamers, cutters, and curves. We'd love for Greene to get a hold of a cutter or curve, as he's hitting both off righties for an xwOBA of .464 or better. A four-seamer would be great, as well as Greene's having hit seven of his 15 homers off four-seamers.
The pitch to fight off will be changeups. It's Wacha's best pitch and a weakness of Greene's. But if he's able to foul off enough of them, then he'll get to another advantageous pitch, and we'll have a shot at cashing this bet.
Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+325, Bet365)
Let's move on to Baltimore, where we're looking at some right-on-right action here. Alonso gets a matchup against Bryce Elder of the Braves, whom he has some familiarity with from his time with the Mets.
Pete Alonso to dead center for his 19th homer of the year! pic.twitter.com/dhHe4LA41k
— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 28, 2026
Alonso's season-long stats look really solid, posting a 12.0% barrel rate (78th percentile) and a 54.7% hard-hit rate (97th percentile). Over the last 14 days, Alonso's hard-hit rate is up to 66.7%, but that's only amounted to one barrel and one homer. You'd have expected him to have hit more balls in the air to get more barrels, so let's bet on him returning to his norms.
Elder makes for the perfect bounce-back fade for Alonso due to his recent struggles. He's currently allowing hitters to post an 18.2% barrel rate against him over the last 30 days. That's amounted to seven homers over 14 IP in three starts. Go back a little further, and you'll see he's given up two or more homers in four of his last five starts. There's opportunity here.
Elder also has fared worse against righties than he has lefties. Elder's allowed a 20.0% HR/FB rate against righties on the road, a very attractive number for us to support a fade.
Facing righties at home is also Alonso's best situation, as he's hitting them for a 158 wRC+ for ten of his 21 homers.
Elder normally attacks righties mostly with a sinker and slider combo. Alonso has crushed both of these pitches this season for a .394 and .409 wOBA, respectively. If he gets under either of these pitches, with how hard he's hitting the ball, it will go a long way.
With Elder being as homer-prone as he's been lately, I really like the chances Alonso goes deep. Now on to the next hitter we're backing in this game.
