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Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/18/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Miguel Vargas, Jared Young, and others!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am back after a little mini vacation. I have been itching for the past few days to get back to it, and I'm excited to dig into this Thursday slate. We have nine games on deck for us, as some MLB teams have their scheduled day off. We have some great hitting weather in a few spots today, which should give us a little extra boost.
In this article, I'll be going over my four favorite home run spots, as well as advising on a couple of other plays that I like within those games. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, June 18, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/18/2026)
Miguel Vargas OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 HardRock)
I wish these odds were a bit higher, but this spot is just too juicy to pass up. Miguel Vargas has crushed lefties this season and should be able to take advantage of a struggling Ryan Weathers, who has given up 13 of his 15 home runs to righties. That being said, it's for good reason that the odds are lower in this spot, as it's the best spot on the whole slate!
On top of Weathers being very prone to righties, we are getting some excellent wind blowing out towards left-center. It should be a balmy 90 degrees and close to 18 mph winds towards the beginning of the game. Righties have hit Weathers to the tune of a .432 SLG, .212 ISO, 16.7% Barrel%, and a 41.4% HardHit%. This is lining up to be an elite spot for Vargas.
Vargas is sporting an absurd .343 AVG, .700 SLG, .357 ISO, 20% Barrel%, and a 56.7% HardHit% against lefties this season. He has utterly dominated them, and with the weather, it is only making it easier for Vargas to crush one out of an already easy Yankee Stadium that has seen the second most home runs from the right side of the plate in the last three years.
Vargas is easily the best spot, but I think Randal Grichuk and Chase Meidroth both are solid options as well. Meidroth at +850 is an incredible value spot, and is just coming off a home run against a lefty just a couple of days ago.
Jared Young OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 Fanatics)
This is gearing up to be a great spot for the lefties in the lineup; unfortunately for us, the Mets have looked awful recently. I think the choice really comes between Jared Young and Juan Soto, and I'm just not going to play Soto at sub +250. I will gladly take the longer shot on Jared Young, who has been very good this season. He is up to four home runs on the season, all of which have come against RHP, including one against Aaron Nola, whom he lines up against tonight!
Aaron Nola has had a rough season; he has given up 13 home runs on the season. Seven against LHH, and six against RHH. The lefties have a slight advantage here as we are getting some great hitting weather. It's going to be pretty warm, and we are getting 13+ mph winds out towards right field. Lefties are sporting a .489 SLG, .203 ISO, 11.7% Barrel%, and a 43% HardHit% against him.
In a limited time this season, Young is already up to four home runs, while sporting a .473 SLG, .216 ISO, 15.3% Barrel%, and a 49.1% HardHit%. Most of those are good for second best on the team, and it just goes to show how hard he has been hitting the ball. Young has only had two ABs against Nola and already has a home run against him.
Nola loves throwing the four-seamer and knuckle curve, which have resulted in all of his home runs. Good thing for us, Young has hit both of those well, and at +500, that is too good a value to pass up on. If you want the safer pick, then Soto is also extremely viable. I just don't love taking guys with odds that low.
Young leaves the yard! 😤 pic.twitter.com/2394vxSmQN
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 11, 2026
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