MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (4/1/2026)

April 1, 2026

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/1/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including

We are finishing up the first week of the season, and we have many opening day starters back on the bump today for their second start of the year.

That makes my job of tracking down home runs a bit more challenging, but who's to say we can't attack these top pitchers, too? I was able to dig in and find four home run props that I like, with three of them having very favorable odds today.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, April 1, 2026. Today, I'll exclusively feature odds from our partners at Novig sports prediction markets.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (4/1/2026)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, April 1.

Jackson Merill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+446 Novig)

I want to try to target the warm-weather-hitting environments when I can here early in the season. While Petco Park isn't the best park for hitters, it should be close to 70 degrees in San Diego today, with winds possibly blowing out to right field around 11 to 12 mph.

Enter lefty Jackson Merrill, who hit his second home run of the season already last night off Giants closer Ryan Walker. I hope he doesn't wait until his final at-bat today, as I like his matchup a ton here against Giants starter Adrian Houser.

Houser has always had issues with lefties, and even in a pretty solid 2025 season with Chicago, he still allowed a .456 SLG and 9.3% Barrel% to LHH. He's primarily a sinker pitcher, which is good news for Merrill, as he had a .538 SLG and .308 ISO against sinkers from RHP last season.

Byron Buxton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 Novig)

Buxton is a guy who has had elite splits against LHP throughout his career (.232 ISO, 118 wRC+), and I want to attack lefty Noah Cameron, who allowed 13 of his 18 home runs to RHH last season.

The Kansas City outfield fences were moved in this offseason, and it looks like we are going to get a pretty substantial wind blowing out to left field today, setting Buxton up for a great chance at a home run if he can pull one in the air. Cameron is not a high-velocity pitcher at all, so I think Buxton could easily sit back on his low-90s fastball or his variety of offspeed offerings.

Buxton's profile against Cameron's pitch mix is probably the best of any of my picks today. He crushed fastballs, changeups, cutters, and curveballs from lefties last year, smacking 10 homers off LHP in total. The odds are lower than most of my other picks, but for good reason, as Buxton has elite power and a pristine matchup here.

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Drake Baldwin OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+488 Novig)

The Atlanta youngster has already left the yard three times this season, including a solo shot in last night's game. Two of those home runs have come off right-handed pitchers, and Baldwin will face righty veteran Luis Severino on the mound today.

Sevvy was much better on the road last season, but he still showed very traditional splits, allowing a better average and more barrels to left-handed hitters. The weather in Atlanta isn't all that favorable for hitters, but the ballpark is built to benefit lefties with a very attainable right field fence and a fairly shallow power alley in right-center.

As you have seen by now, I love to get into the pitch mix breakdowns and matchups for hitters. Baldwin has never seen Sevvy before, but last year he had tremendous success against his three most-used pitches against LHH. Between the elite results here and Baldwin's hot start, I feel like he's a really good value at odds near +500 today.

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Longshot: Isaac Paredes OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+675 DraftKings)

Do I dare pick on Garrett Crochet today? Why not? Crochet allowed 24 home runs last season, even in a season where he was dominant in terms of his strikeouts and overall run prevention. Like any pitcher who throws as hard as Crochet does, there's the potential for hitters to turn those pitches around just as quickly and do some major damage.

I like this spot for Parades for a few reasons. For one, he's a dead pull hitter who is playing in the absolute best park for pull-happy righties, with the Crawford boxes in Houston providing a short porch. He should also have the wind at his back, with 15 mph winds projected to be blowing out to left-center.

I'll break the cardinal sin here of citing BvP (batter vs. pitcher stats), as Paredes faced Crochet twice in 2024 and crushed the baseball in both at-bats. One of those was a line drive single that had a 104 mph exit velocity, and the other was a 406-foot home run that had an eV of 102 mph.

If we take Crochet's name off this pitch mix and profile and pretend it's a no-name lefty who throws hard, we'd be all of some Houston righties today. Don't fall victim to avoiding big-name pitchers every time; they give up home runs, too!

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