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Expert Week 3 NFL betting picks and analysis for Sunday's slate (2025). Get the best bets, point spreads, and for early and afternoon NFL games on 9/21/2025.
Can you believe we're already in Week 3? The NFL season always just flies by. We've learned a couple of things so far about who's good and who's not, but it's also important to remember that it's still such a small sample size of games compared to a full season.
Last week, I got absolutely cooked in this article, going 0-5, with losses on the Cowboys -5.5, Dolphins -2.5, Broncos -1.5, Cardinals -6.5, and Chiefs +1.5. Just a disgraceful performance, so we'll look to bounce back here.
Let's get back on track with my Week 3 expert betting picks. Find out why I'm riding with the Los Angeles Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, Houston Texans, and Arizona Cardinals.
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Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
The Pick: Los Angeles Rams +3.5 (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I'm riding with the Rams to get revenge on the Eagles for last season's NFC Divisional Round loss.
For one, I love getting past the key number of three here, meaning that we still win if the Rams lose by a field goal. I like Los Angeles to win outright, so the number looks quite favorable to me.
The main edge I see here is in the passing game, where the Rams are clicking and the Eagles have been lethargic.
Matthew Stafford is off to a fantastic start this season, completing 71% of his passes at 8.8 yards per attempt.
Davante Adams has unlocked another level in this passing game, as a clinical route runner who can beat man coverage on the perimeter. Simply put, Adams does much more than Cooper Kupp at this stage of their career, so we could see a huge year from this group.
Matthew Stafford & Dan Marino are the greatest God-given throwers of the football that have ever lived.
Like you would write about in a textbook.
— Clint Goss (@NFLDraftDome) September 16, 2025
On the other side, the Eagles have looked completely vanilla through the air. New offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo is deploying much less motion than Kellen Moore. Jalen Hurts has combined for only 253 passing yards in two games.
If you look at the Eagles' two wins -- which have been by a combined seven points -- they have benefited from a Miles Sanders fumble in the red zone and a Travis Kelce drop in the end zone that turned into an interception. This team could easily be 0-2 right now.
With that in mind, give me the Rams +3.5 as they look to avenge last year's postseason defeat.
Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders
The Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
My next pick involves fading my favorite team in the Commanders.
We're getting the Raiders past a key number of three despite the fact that Jayden Daniels looks likely to miss this game.
While Marcus Mariota looked good in relief of Daniels last year, don't let that performance fool you. For one, it was against an abysmal Panthers defense. Secondly, Kliff Kingsbury's offense was firing on all cylinders last year, but that's not the case right now.
Not only have the Commanders struggled against the Packers, but they weren't great against the Giants either, putting up only 21 points against a defense that just got shredded by the Cowboys.
Even though the Raiders looked dreadful vs the Chargers on Monday Night Football, they should get back on track against a Commanders defense that got torched for 124 yards against Tucker Kraft.
The Washington #Commanders struggled on defense against the Packers last week, but their main issue was covering TE Tucker Kraft. I broke down the individual errors that led to Krafts big day: https://t.co/BVMUIa8MdU pic.twitter.com/JZCOk6q4pM
— Mark Bullock (@MarkBullockNFL) September 16, 2025
That's bad news against the best tight end in football in Brock Bowers.
Look for the Raiders to get back to basics by featuring their best players. Along with emphasizing Bowers, I expect Vegas to give more touches to rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, who spoke publicly about wanting more work this week. This has the look of a close game that the Raiders have a chance to win outright. I just can't pass up fading Mariota with a +3.5 spread.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Pick: Houston Texans +1.5 (-112 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
My third pick is in a divisional game in the AFC South, betting that the Texans finally get on track.
The key for me in this game is the return of Texans' wideout Christian Kirk, who makes his debut with the team, taking on his former squad in the Jaguars.
What I like most about getting Kirk back is that he is a dependable veteran who can act as a safety valve for C.J. Stroud in the short to intermediate passing game.
This is huge because the Texans have had major pass protection issues, so they need to get the ball out of Stroud's hands quickly.
With Kirk out, Houston was rolling out the likes of Xavier Hutchinson and Justin Watson next to Nico Collins. For whatever reason, the coaching staff wasn't ready to trust rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, so there wasn't enough help for Collins. With Kirk back, that won't be the case anymore.
The Texans deserve better so far, as they've been able to hold the Rams to 14 points and the Bucs to 20 points. It's a terrific defense that has an imposing pass rush led by Will Anderson Jr. and a terrific secondary with stud corner Derek Stingley Jr.
While Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has made some good plays, he's prone to ill-advised turnovers, including a couple of interceptions last week. Don't be surprised if more of that happens against this tough defense.
Simulated pressure, Bengals only bring 4. Trevor throws it high, BTJ doesnt go for it for his own safety leading to another INT pic.twitter.com/ig5EYKymFQ
— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) September 14, 2025
Bet on this unit stepping up to help Houston to their first win of the season.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
The Pick: Arizona Cardinals +3 (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
My final pick is in the NFC West, where the Cardinals take on the 49ers in a pivotal divisional showdown.
The biggest key for me here is that Brock Purdy (despite practicing on Thursday) is likely to be out for this game.
While Mac Jones performed well vs the Saints, and I expect him to be a competent backup in the long run for this offense, this feels like a tough spot vs. an underrated Cardinals defense.
This is a well-coached group by Jonathan Gannon and Nick Rallis, the latter expected to be the next hot head coaching candidate. It's a defense that is able to disguise its looks effectively, which is likely to cause problems for Jones.
Pretty neat design by #AZCardinals DC Nick Rallis on the INT.
- Zaven Collins and Baron Browning end up dropping into coverage after showing blitz look
- Mack Wilson Sr. and Budda Baker blitz from the same side and put Rico Dowdle in bad spot
- Wilson finds the gap to force INT pic.twitter.com/Yo5A0gCevQ— Zach Gershman (@ZachAZCards) September 15, 2025
I think you're going to see a low-scoring game here, where the Cardinals can at least keep it within three points.
I can see Arizona winning this game outright, helped by a couple of Jones turnovers in this spot.
It also helps that Jauan Jennings is banged up, so there's still an extremely limited group of pass-catchers in this offense.
On the other side, the Cardinals are completely healthy on offense, giving them an edge here.
