Best Thursday Night Football Bets, Props and Expert Picks - Week 1 TNF Analysis (2025)

September 4, 2025

Expert Thursday Night Football betting predictions, best TNF prop bets, and odds analysis for Week 1. Free Thursday Night Football picks and player props for tonight's game.

Football is finally back. The 2025 NFL season opens with a classic NFC East battle between the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys sit as an 8.5-point road underdog against the Eagles, a week after shocking the sports world by trading superstar edge rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers. Philadelphia remains a machine and boasts the best roster in the league. That's reflected in the futures market, with them being tied with the Ravens for the highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +700 according to FanDuel.

Can the Eagles cover at home in their first game since winning the Super Bowl? Or will the Cowboys be able to keep this one close with their upgraded passing attack? With any further ado, let's get to the picks.

Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread

Dallas Cowboys +8.5 (+320 ML) at Philadelphia Eagles (-410 ML)

Over/Under (47.5)

Dallas is looking to get back to form offensively after its offense struggled due to injuries and poor performance last season. Even when healthy, Dak Prescott had a 44.3% Success Rate on his dropbacks, which ranked 24th out of 35 QBs in Weeks 1-9 (minimum 150 plays).

Insert the dynamic George Pickens opposite CeeDee Lamb into the passing attack, and things can get cooking again. We'll see if the Dallas offense can break through against the tough Eagles defense that humbled the Kansas City Chiefs in a big way the last time they took the field.

Saquon Barkley is coming off a season for the ages and will be the focal point of the Eagles' running attack. The Cowboys will attempt to slow him down and force the Eagles to beat them through the air, but few teams were able to do so last season.

Thursday Night Football Game Picks

Since 2004, defending Super Bowl champions are 15-5 in next season's Week 1 matchup. It's a pretty wide spread for a duel between division rivals, but it is perhaps justified. The Eagles swept the season series 2-0 in 2024, with an average margin of victory of 31 points.

Despite both being in the NFC East for five seasons, Prescott and Hurts have only faced off four times against each other in their careers. Unfortunate timing with injuries has led to that, but Prescott has performed favorably against division opponents historically with a 29-12 record against the spread. That isn't very relevant to what is happening in 2025, and now, there are all kinds of questions surrounding the team.

The Cowboys are +8.5 underdogs for their season opener vs. the Eagles 🤠 pic.twitter.com/MZkk8hSNtw

— ESPN BET (@ESPNBET) September 4, 2025

The Cowboys hope to be better in the trenches this season after taking guard Tyler Booker out of Alabama with their first-round pick and making multiple additions on the defensive side. Their defensive line room is still undersized, and their issues against the run will likely persist.

They were able to run the ball decently efficiently last season, but Rico Dowdle lacked major juice. How much of rookie running back Jaydon Blue do we see in this game? Blue is a walking explosive play, and Dallas would be wise to deploy him in several different ways.

Philadelphia lost a few pieces on defense, but largely retains its core and has the depth to cover for the departures. The offensive line is still the best in football. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are still among the best wide receiver duos.

You can try to prod at Saquon Barkley, given he had 482 touches in 2024 and the uneasy history of running backs with that high of a workload in the following seasons. And they only lost one coordinator this time, with Vic Fangio remaining as the defensive coordinator and Kellen Moore leaving to become the New Orleans Saints head coach.

The spread feels too wide here for this one. Week 1 typically yields some unexpected results, and I expect Prescott and the Cowboys' offense to put up points and keep the outcome within shouting distance. I predict that the Cowboys cover, but the Eagles win 31-24.

The Picks: Cowboys +8.5, (-115), Over 47.5 (-110)

Thursday Night Football Player Props

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+112)

Prescott will likely need to air the ball out at a high rate in this one for the Cowboys to have a chance. The Eagles' run defense projects to be dominant, and the Cowboys want to chuck the ball anyway. Cowboys' new head coach Brian Schottenheimer has been the team's offensive coordinator for the past two seasons, and Prescott has finished top five in passing attempts per game in each season.

There's value here with the plus odds. Dallas projects to play from behind, and Philadelphia didn't allow many rushing touchdowns last season. They allowed only nine all season, second behind only the Chargers. In addition, the Eagles also showed a tendency to play soft coverage in two-minute situations and allowed multiple touchdowns last season. That could be something to watch for if the Cowboys get the ball late in a half.

DeVonta Smith Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Smith has averaged more yards per game in each season of his career than this line is set at. Despite missing four games and the Eagles having their lowest pass volume season with him, he still put up over 800 yards and eight touchdowns.

There's been consistent talk during Eagles training camp about how sharp he's looked in addition to his connection with Jalen Hurts. He'll often line up against Cowboys corner Kair Elam, who came over from Buffalo in a trade this offseason. He was famously hunted by the Chiefs in last year's playoff game and did not have a good day. When Elam is not on him, it will likely be Trevon Diggs who is expected to be on a pitch count coming off injury. He's also a boom-or-bust corner and could concede a big play for us.

George Pickens Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Pickens feels primed to make an immediate impact with his new squad. He fits perfectly into the Cowboys' offense as a vertical threat that can help create space for Lamb underneath, while also being a dominant ball-winner at the catch point. The Eagles' second boundary corner spot is a potential spot to put a magnifying glass on, and Pickens at the X receiver spot could be feasting all night. It was Kelee Ringo, partly in the preseason, who did not have a good showing. Veteran Adoree' Jackson is in the mix, and they also traded for Jakorian Bennett from the Raiders during training camp.

There's also the narrative element, where it's the first game of the season and everyone in the country is watching. The Cowboys might want to flaunt and show off the big-time weapon they acquired this offseason to try and get back in good graces with the fans. Either way, it's a solid spot for Pickens to have a good first start to the season.

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