MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/26/2025)

August 26, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/26/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Aaron Judge, James Wood, Taylor Ward and Nick Kurtz.

We have 15 games this Tuesday in MLB. What better day for a home run article than "Dinger Tuesday?" We will be attacking my four favorite spots for home runs today, including great environments for hitting because of matchups, park factor, and favorable weather conditions. I am leaning more into pitch mix and BVP data to give us more advantages on our home run bets tonight.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than three home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

In this article, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, August 26, 2025. Odds for each pick are from FanDuel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/26/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, August 26:

• Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
• James Wood, Washington Nationals
• Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels
• Nick Kurtz, Athletics

Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+182 FanDuel)

Our first home run bet of the day is breaking my own rule by attacking a home run at less than +250 odds, but the matchup is too good to pass up. It will be in the upper 70s with a 10+ mph wind blowing out in the Bronx tonight at Yankee Stadium.

MacKenzie Gore will toe the rubber for the Nationals today. The southpaw has allowed a 4.20 xFIP, 2.19 HR/9, 39.0% FB, and a 41.6% Hard Hit over his last 30 days. Over his previous two starts, he has a 1.74 HR/9, 51.9% FB, and a 51.9% Hard Hit.

Aaron Judge has crushed left-handed pitching in 2025. He is slashing .310/.483/.759 with a 1.241 OPS and 11 home runs. He has tremendous numbers against Gore in his lifetime. In his five at-bats, he is slashing .600/.667/1.800 with a 2.467 OPS and two home runs.

Gore has allowed 11 of his home runs this season against this four-seamer. He has a .506 SLG against it. Judge is slashing .265/.286/.706 with a .992 OPS against four-seam fastballs from left-handed pitching this season. He has five home runs off this pitch.

I know the odds are not great, but does it matter when he hits one?

James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 FanDuel)

We are staying in the same game for our second home run bet of the day. This time, we are attacking Luis Gil, who is due for some serious regression.

Gil has allowed a 34.5% FB and a 34.5% Hard Hit over his last two starts. During that span, he has a 1.74 ERA but a 6.42 SIERA. The Nationals are starting to heat up against right-handed pitching, and with the wind blowing out, this is a spot we could see multiple home runs from the Nats' lefties.

James Wood on the season is slashing .243/.362/.469 with an .831 OPS. He has 16 home runs against the split in 2025. Over his last 11 plate appearances against the righties, he is slashing .222/.364/.556 with a .919 OPS.

99.9 MPH in, 109.1 MPH out 😳

James Wood turned this fastball around real quick! pic.twitter.com/I53U7a5U9u

— MLB (@MLB) August 21, 2025

The underlying numbers on Gil's four-seamer scream regression. He has a .489 xSLG on his four-seamer while only allowing one home run on the pitch. He throws it 46.2% of the time. Wood is slashing .273/.365/.556 with a .921 OPS and seven home runs against it this season.

Look for Wood and Judge to both go yard tonight and start our card off hot.

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Taylor Ward OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+420 FanDuel)

The Angels and Rangers will square off in Arlington, Texas, at Globe Life Field with the roof closed. With the weather starting to cool down on the East Coast, these types of atmospheres become the best place to attack home runs.

Southpaw Patrick Corbin will get the rock for the Rangers against this Angels lineup. Corbin has struggled with the long ball, especially as of late. Over the last 30 days, he has allowed a 1.96 HR/9, 39.7% FB, and a 42.2% Hard Hit. He has a 3.00 HR/9, 40.0% FB, and a 50.0% Hard Hit over his last two starts.

Right-handed hitters have been the best way to get to Corbin with power. He has allowed a .286 AVG, .177 ISO, .463 SLG, and 13 home runs to the split this season. The Angels are red hot with a .833 OPS and a 127 wRC+ vs. LHP over their last 30 days.

On the season, Ward is slashing .267/.350/.593 with a .944 OPS and six home runs against left-handed pitching. He is also red hot against the split. Over his last 14 plate appearances, he is slashing .273/.429/.636 with a 1.065 OPS.

Taylor Ward reaches the 30-homer mark for the first time in his career! pic.twitter.com/PLmkWnvvGq

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) August 24, 2025

Ward has a tremendous history against Corbin as well. In 12 career at-bats, Ward is slashing .500/.538/.833 with a 1.372 OPS and one home run against Corbin.

Corbin has allowed most of his power to three pitches this season. His slider has allowed a .429 SLG and six home runs, his sinker has a .428 SLG and seven home runs, and his cutter has a .505 SLG and five home runs against it. Taylor Ward is slashing these marks below against those pitches.

Ward is demolishing the pitch Corbin has thrown the most this season, which is his slider. He is slashing .304/.407/.870 with a 1.417 OPS and four home runs against it.

Ward checks all the boxes for me to leave the yard this Tuesday.

Nick Kurtz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 FanDuel)

Our last home run bet of the night comes in Sacramento at Sutter Health Park as the Athletics host the Tigers for game two of their series. It will be in the mid-80s with a 15+ mph wind blowing out to center field tonight in a park that doesn't block wind well.

On the season, Charlie Morton has been relatively good at sustaining power. He has allowed a 1.38 HR/9, 36.1% FB, and a 33.5% Hard Hit. The regression monster is coming here for Morton, and the power is where it's coming. Pitching in this park is going to be a disaster for him.

Over his last two starts, Morton has a 1.50 ERA and a 4.25 SIERA. He has allowed a 0.75 HR/9, but a 50.5% FB and a 35.7% Hard Hit. Now he's pitching in a minor league ballpark with home run regression due. This is not a good spot for old man Morton.

Morton has allowed pretty equal power to both sides of the plate. He has allowed a .441 SLG and 10 home runs to righties and a .436 SLG and nine home runs to lefties.

Nick Kurtz will be our target here tonight, and it has everything to do with how he hits the pitch mix of Morton. On the season, Kurtz is slashing .353/.451/.737 with a 1.188 OPS and 22 home runs against the split.

As mentioned above, the pitch mix of Morton is my target here, and the main pitch I am looking to attack is his curveball. He throws it 38.0% of the time and has allowed eight home runs against it. His four-seamer has allowed seven home runs as well.

Kurtz crushes the curveball. He is slashing .235/.381/.647 with a 1.028 OPS and two home runs off it this season. He is slashing .373/.486/.780 with a 1.266 OPS and six home runs against the four-seamer.

I love this spot for Kurtz to bring us home on a hopeful, perfect card.

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