DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The BMW Championship (2025)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the BMW Championship (2025). His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 BMW Championship. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.

New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings - The BMW Championship

Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows users to input data to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide on everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The BMW Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
• In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
• Units: +340.903 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2025
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record:
• (300-200-55) 60.00%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles

• Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look at a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

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TeeOffSports membership

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You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!

Let's Look at the Stats

Field

Field Size: 49
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 18

Last Five Winners of The BMW

Expected Cut-Line

Caves Valley

7,542 Yards - Par 20 - Greens Bentgrass

Course breakdown will land in my Vegas Report this week

First Look Into Outright Bets

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Favorite Plays

Ludvig Aberg ($10,200)

While it goes without saying that Scottie Scheffler is good at golf and should be played/considered this week at Caves Valley, the most interesting takeaway I had when running the numbers on Monday afternoon was how Ludvig Aberg graded a little below Rory McIlroy and slightly above Xander Schauffele when it came to projected price tag on the DraftKings slate.

My numbers loved Aberg's potential to thrive off-the-tee and from the anticipated second-shot yardages, ranking as one of only three golfers to crack the top-10 of this field for Projected Driving and Weighted Approach (Scheffler/Kitayama are the other two).

While Kitayama does see a decline in his putting to remove himself from climbing into that same projected range as the elite golfers in this field, Aberg's Bentgrass splits should leave room for optimism since he climbs 18 spots in this field when faced with a similar surface over his baseline projection elsewhere. If that putter does happen to come to life, the sky is the limit for him this week.

Here are the only two golfers in the field to crack the top-15 in all categories:

Kurt Kitayama ($7,600)

I once swore off playing Kurt Kitayama earlier this season, but all it took was for Daniel Berger to overtake him on that list for the American to re-enter the fray of consideration.

Kitayama has been brilliant over the last two months, posting four top-15 finishes over his last five events, including his victory at the 3M Open a few weeks back.

As I mentioned above, Kitayama's putter has more red flags than you would care to see, but this is a price tag that allows his ball-striking to create value as one of the best options on the board. We see that with him being the best value of any golfer priced $7,000+ and someone who is playable in all markets.

Chris Gotterup ($8,500)

If you are worried about Chris Gotterup's performance last week, I would chalk it up to a lousy course fit.

Gotterup ranked 12th in my model at easy-scoring courses when diving into Caves Valley, 13th for expected ball-striking and sixth for weighted scoring.

From a pure data perspective, my model at TPC Southwind had him as one of the more significant fades entering the playoffs, but we see that flip here, as Gotterup now shows as a value at this $8,500 price tag.

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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