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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/16/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Brent Rooker, Ryan McMahon, and Jesus Sanchez.
We've got a small slate of MLB action on Monday, which means that we need to dig deep to find spots for our home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include Brent Rooker, Ryan McMahon, Jesus Sanchez, Brandon Lowe, and Josh Lowe. Each of these players is either swinging a hot bat or in an exploitable matchup.
The process behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to make sure we're getting a favorable price in terms of betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, June 16, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/16/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, June 16:
- Brent Rooker, Athletics (+295)
- Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies (+360)
- Jesus Sanchez, Miami Marlins (+400)
- Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays (+425)
- Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays (+475)
Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+295 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Rooker has evolved into one of the best power hitters in baseball, homering 39 times last season. This year, the A's slugger has 15 home runs in 320 plate appearances, including two in his last four games. Tonight looks like a good spot against Lance McCullers Jr., where we could see Rooker go yard once again.
Brent Rooker clubs his 14th homer of the season 💪 pic.twitter.com/rzjzvHWc0V
— MLB (@MLB) June 11, 2025
For one, the game is in a hitter-friendly environment at Sutter Health Park. This minor league venue has been one of the best spots for home runs this season. This game has a 10.5-run total, so it's expected to be a high-scoring affair.
On top of that, McCullers hasn't been as good against right-handed hitters, allowing a .416 wOBA with three home runs in 13.2 innings. That's bad news against a power hitter like Rooker.
When you consider how hard that Rooker hits the ball (13.5% barrel rate), you have to like this matchup for him, especially at home in this bandbox that the A's play in.
Even though this is an expensive price at (+295) odds, I'm willing to take the plunge due to the combination of skills and matchup in this one.
Ryan McMahon OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DraftKings Sportsbook)
McMahon is currently slashing .221/.333/.400 with 10 home runs in 282 plate appearances. While these are underwhelming numbers, we've seen the veteran corner infielder get going lately, homering four times in his last eight games. Tonight looks like a great spot to keep the good times rolling against Jake Irvin.
Ryan McMahon puts the Rockies on top! pic.twitter.com/OBmATIMrjG
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 15, 2025
The veteran right-hander has had a tough time against lefty bats this season, allowing a .354 wOBA and 1.88 HR/9. This also includes a 12.9% barrel rate, which ranks in the 6th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. We've seen McMahon homer once in nine plate appearances against Irvin, including a .397 xwOBA.
Even though this price is a bit expensive at (+360) odds, it's worth taking a shot considering how well McMahon is swinging the bat lately, along with Irvin's struggles against lefties.
Bet on McMahon to hit his 11th home run of the season in this spot.
Jesus Sanchez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sanchez is slashing .257/.332/.408 with only six home runs, but he's been a lot better against right-handed pitching, as highlighted by a .774 OPS (.583 OPS vs lefties).
Jesus Sanchez got every stitch of that one pic.twitter.com/YQuEhme8HJ
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 14, 2025
It's also encouraging that Sanchez has homered twice in his last seven games, including one against the Nationals on June 14th. Not to mention that Sanchez has a 92nd percentile bat speed, per Baseball Savant. There's a chance that this is a 25-homer bat, so perhaps he can get on a power binge soon.
Why not tonight against Phillies' rookie righty Mick Abel? This pitcher has given up a lot of hard contact, as highlighted by an 11.4% barrel rate, which is among the worst in MLB.
When you consider Sanchez's recent performance along with Abel's struggles, you come away finding the price of (+400) odds looking quite appealing.
I'm willing to bet on Sanchez to go yard for the seventh time of the season in this spot.
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Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lowe has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball for the last couple of months. Since May 1st, Lowe is slashing .288/.348/.534 with nine home runs in 161 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 12.8% barrel rate.
Brandon Lowe - Tampa Bay Rays (12)
pic.twitter.com/qXfh2ahtcr— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) June 5, 2025
As a left-handed hitter, Lowe does much better against righties, as highlighted by a .291/.341/.505 slash. As you'd expect, 11 of Lowe's 13 home runs have come against right-handers.
That's why you have to be intrigued by the matchup against Zach Eflin. Even though the veteran has performed much better lately, he's struggled against lefties this year.
Eflin has allowed a .349 wOBA and eight home runs against lefties, compared to a .287 wOBA and two homers vs righties.
Lowe's numbers against Eflin are respectable, including a .385 xwOBA in seven plate appearances.
We should also acknowledge that this game is in a hitter's park at George Steinbrenner Field, which also bodes well for Lowe in this spot. When you put these factors together, it's worth taking a shot on Lowe to homer at (+425) odds.
Josh Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I'm doubling down on my Eflin fade by riding with another Rays' lefty bat in the other Lowe, who is currently slashing .238/.310/.381 with three home runs in 28 games this season.
Even though these numbers are underwhelming, I'm trying to capitalize on the lefty-righty matchup vs Eflin.
Josh Lowe’s walk rate per season the last 3 years:
2023: 6.2%
2024: 8.3%
2025: 9.6%Very encouraging trend for JLowe… He had a .835 OPS in 2023 with only a 6.2% walk rate. It’s also great to see this considering he’s now leading off. This is the best version we’ve seen of him. pic.twitter.com/9NenxnRwDR
— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) June 5, 2025
There's a good chance that Lowe's slow start is merely due to his return from a long layoff caused by injury. Remember that this player put up double-digit barrel rates in each of his last two seasons.
There's 20-homer power in this bat, so we'll take a shot that he can hit his fourth of the season against Eflin.
There are two other factors in his favor, including the hitter-friendly environment in George Steinbrenner Field, along with the fact that Lowe has been entrenched in the leadoff spot for the Rays.
Batting first in the lineup will give Lowe a chance at getting to five plate appearances in this matchup. Considering these factors, the value looks good at (+475) odds. Let's take a shot on Lowe to hit his fourth homer of the season in this matchup.
Good luck if you're tailing these bets, and thanks for reading!
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