MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/27/2025)

May 27, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/27/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.

We have a full slate of MLB games on tap today, the day after Memorial Day. It’s Dinger Tuesday, so let's try to find some winners to use on the promotions scattered across sportsbooks. We at RotoBaller have been extremely hot in this article over the last few weeks, so let's keep the trend going tonight.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need one of our four hitters to go deep to break even or make a profit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props for MLB games on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/27/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Tuesday, May 27:

• Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox
• Cam Smith, Houston Astros
• Jonah Heim, Texas Rangers
• Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees

Wilyer Abreu OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Our first stop this afternoon will be between the Red Sox and Brewers. American Family Field in Milwaukee is in the middle of the pack regarding hitter or pitcher advantage, and this game is played in a dome. There is no real park or ballpark advantage.

I love this spot because of how the lefties for the Boston lineup with Aaron Civale, particularly Wilyer Abreu. Civale has a 6.24 xFIP, 5.14 HR/9, and a 60.9% FB this season. Over his last 30 days, he has a 6.34 xFIP, 2.25 HR/9, and a 58.3% FB. Lefties have crushed Civale in 2025. They have a .525 wOBA, .750 ISO, and 1.000 SLG. He has already allowed three home runs through two appearances this season.

As mentioned earlier, the Boston lefties line up great in this spot. Rafael Devers and Abreu were both intriguing options. If the park were better, I would bet both, but ultimately, I went with Abreu because of how he hits the cutter, which we will get into in the next section. Abreu has a .381 wOBA and a .277 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He has 12 long balls this season.

Civale has given up most of his power to one pitch. Lefties have hit all three home runs this season against his cutter. It has a 1.182 SLG against it so far in 2025. Abreu destroys this pitch, and it's the main reason I love him in this spot. He has a .510 wOBA, .500 ISO, and two HRs in 42 pitches this season against the cutter.

Look for Abreu to get us started with a bomb tonight in Milwaukee.

Cam Smith OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Our second bet of the day is a showdown in Houston between the Astros and Athletics. The Astros will square off against the southpaw JP Sears tonight. This game will be played in Daikin Park, and the roof will be closed, making for neutral hitting conditions.

Sears has a 4.40 xFIP, 1.67 HR/9, and a 47.6% FB this season. Over his last two starts, he has a 5.46 xFIP, 5.0 HR/9, and a 48.6% FB. He has given up 10 home runs this season, nine of which have come against right-handed hitters. He has allowed a 48.3% FB and a 30.5% Hard Hit against the split.

It is interesting to me how much guys like Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, and Jeremy Pena struggle against left-handed pitching this season. Instead, some lesser names like Cam Smith and Yainer Diaz have hit the split well. So instead of hoping one of them gets hot in this matchup, we are going to pivot to the rookie who has proven to hit lefties well this season.

Smith has hit three home runs this season, two of them against lefties. He has a .333 ISO and a .524 SLG against the split. He has been the best right-handed bat against lefties in this lineup.

Sears throws to pitches primarily to right-handed sticks. He throws a four-seamer and a sweeper. The four-seamer has a .541 SLG and five home runs against it. The sweeper has a .294 SLG and two home runs against it. Although I like the four-seamer more for home runs, let's see how Smith profiles against these two pitches.

• Four seamer: 8 Pitches, 2.074 wOBA, 3.000 ISO, 24 LA, 1 HR
• Sweeper: 16 Pitches, 1.037 wOBA, 1.500 ISO, 30 LA, 1 HR

Although it is a small sample size, those numbers are exceptional. I love Smith tonight, and the value on this bet makes it my favorite play on the Astros.

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Jonah Heim OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 FanDuel Sportsbook)

I had a tough time with this one here, but I want to attack Bowden Francis for home runs every time he pitches. He has allowed 15 home runs in 2025. So far, 12 of those home runs have come against left-handed hitters. Searching for a lefty Rangers bat to attack Francis is hard to come by with Corey Seager and Joc Pederson on the IL.

Jonah Heim is the top option for the Rangers' power from the left-hand side with the current state of the Rangers' roster. Heim has six home runs this season, which leads all lefties on the Rangers. He has a .289 wOBA and a .134 ISO against the split this season.

Francis has a 4.62 xFIP, 2.68 HR/9, and a 44.3% FB this season. He has a 4.84 xFIP, 3.12 HR/9 and a 46.2% FB over his last two starts. The two pitches he throws to lefties have incredible numbers against them. His four-seamer has a .444 SLG and seven home runs against it, and his splitter has a .612 SLG and five home runs against it. Below is how Heim performs against those pitches.

• Four seamer: 139 Pitches, .258 wOBA, .152 ISO, 19 LA, 1 HR
• Splitter: 14 Pitches, .733 wOBA, .750 ISO, 17 LA, 1 HR

I don't love the hitter, but the matchup with Francis means at least one lefty for the Rangers is going deep tonight, my best bet is Heim.

Cody Bellinger OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+420 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Our last stop will be the West Coast, where the Yankees and Angels will play. The Yankees will face the home run-prone Tyler Anderson in a good hitting environment. Angel Stadium is a top-5 stadium for home runs over the last three seasons for both sides of the plate.

I like attacking Anderson with lefties for power, as I mentioned last week. Cody Bellinger will be our top lefty bat for the Yankees. He is one of the best left-on-left hitters in the big leagues. He has a .459 wOBA and a .273 ISO against lefties this season.

Tyler Anderson has a 5.18 xFIP, 1.64 HR/9, and a 53.0% FB this season. He has a 7.40 xFIP, 3.79 HR/9, and a 52.6% FB over his last two starts. He has given up 10 home runs this season. Four of those have come against lefties in a fourth of the at-bats he has had against righties. He has allowed a .589 SLG, 2.6 HR/9, 52.4% FB, and a 23.3% Hard Hit against lefties this season.

Anderson has a five-pitch mix for lefties, but he throws two of them over 60% of the time. His four-seamer has a .389 SLG and five home runs against it, and his cutter has a .344 SLG and one home run against it. Below is how Bellinger handles those pitches from lefties.

• Four seamer: 20 Pitches, .866 wOBA, 1.500 ISO, 26 LA, 1 HR
• Cutter: 52 Pitches, .471 wOBA, .438 ISO, 21 LA, 2 HRs

Bellinger has had a ton of success against the two pitches he primarily throws to lefties. Bellinger is a great bet to leave the yard tonight.

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