Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Shane Smith, Stephen Kolek, Lucas Giolito

Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 7 in 2025, or just mirages.

Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 7 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take a look at starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.

We've got some exciting arms to look at this week! First, we'll look at Shane Smith's strong start against Miami. Then, we'll deep dive into Stephen Kolek's complete-game shutout in Coors Field on Saturday. We'll finish it off by breaking down the possible resurgence of Lucas Giolito in Boston.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of May 12.

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Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

26% Rostered

2025 Stats (prior to this start): 37 1/3 IP, 2.41 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 10.3% K-BB%

5/10 vs. MIA: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

Smith has been rolling as of late and put up his best start of the season on Saturday against Miami. Smith blanked the fish for six innings while striking out seven in a tough no-decision. Smith now has a sparkling 2.08 ERA on the year, and has plenty of fantasy managers wondering if there’s any value to be had with this south-sider.

Originally an undrafted prospect, Smith came up through the Brewers’ system before being selected in the Rule 5 draft by Chicago ahead of the 2025 season. A well-built 6-foot-3 right-hander, Smith works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, curveball, and sinker.

He was on fire against Miami with his stuff, racking up a whopping 17 whiffs on 87 pitches. He primarily earned those whiffs with two pitches, the four-seamer and the changeup.

Let’s start with Smith’s changeup, which has been downright nasty for him this season. On the year, opponents are hitting just .143 with a .200 SLG and .231 wOBA off Smith’s changeup, along with an impressive 34.7% whiff rate. Smith notched six of his 17 whiffs with the pitch in this start.

A 90.1 mph offering, Smith’s changeup is characterized by extreme vertical drop and a low 1,613 RPM spin rate.

Shane Smith's Changeup is an absolute weapon. pic.twitter.com/rqM54nvw10

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2025

It looks rather filthy, and I think Smith’s changeup has the makings of a strikeout pitch. In addition to the poor outcomes against the pitch, batters also have a 16% swinging-strike rate and a 29.8% chase rate against Smith’s changeup this season. Smith’s changeup was often viewed as his best pitch coming up, and that bears out in the numbers.

Smith routinely had strikeout rates better than 25% in the minors, and while he may not be able to maintain that number exactly, I do think he’s capable of putting up a better strikeout rate than his current 7.89 K/9 going forward. He does have a 26.4% strikeout rate over his last four starts, along with an 18.4% K-BB% and a 2.07 FIP.

Changeup leading the way, Smith has been rolling lately.

Then there’s his fastball, which Smith throws decently hard at 95 mph on average, with the ability to touch 97. With a slightly below average drop and break, Smith tends to live up to his four-seamer, targeting the middle and upper parts of the zone. The Marlins were chasing high heat all day in this game, and Smith earned nine of his 17 whiffs on the fastball in this start.

Opponents have really struggled against Smith’s fastball this season, hitting just .194 with a .274 SLG and .268 wOBA.

Smith has excelled by limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in the air. He has an 88.1 mph average exit velocity against his four-seamer this season, along with a 23-degree average launch angle. Batters have really struggled to square Smith’s fastball up, posting a 51.1% flyball rate compared to just a 14.9% line drive rate.

Flyballs are the most likely batted ball type to go for a home run or extra bases, but flyballs are also the least likely batted ball type to fall for a hit. If it’s not out or over the outfielder’s head, it tends to be caught. Therefore, it can actually be seen as a positive for Smith to allow all these flyballs, as he’s limiting hits and baserunners against himself.

The obvious fear when it comes to an approach like this is home runs, but Smith has done an excellent job of limiting the long ball thus far. He’s allowed one, yes, just one, home run all season and has an impressive 0.21 HR/9. Of course, there’s no way Smith sustains an HR/9 that low all season, but this is something Smith has excelled at throughout his minor league career.

He’s regularly had HR/9 rates below 1.00, and I think limiting home runs is something Smith could be capable of at the major league level. He’s shown us as much so far, and even when the 2.3% HR/FB ratio regresses, he should have a solid home run rate. He does pitch home games in a hitter-friendly ballpark, which is a little scary, but again, Smith has shown us he can limit the long ball.

Then, of course, there’s the luck factor. Smith has pitched well, especially recently, but Lady Luck has been on his side throughout. In addition to the unsustainably low 2.3% HR/FB rate, Smith also has a .263 BABIP and 79.1% LOB rate against on the year. These aren’t egregiously lucky numbers or anything, but they likely will regress, and Smith’s 2.08 ERA will rise when that happens.

I don’t know if it’ll regress all the way to 4.15 like his xFIP suggests, but regression will come for Smith.

The last concerning factor for Smith just happens to be the team he plays for. Yes, we’ve seen pitchers like Garrett Crochet last season transcend their awful surroundings for a strong fantasy year, but Smith is not Crochet. He does have what it takes to be a useful fantasy arm with some strikeout upside thanks to that changeup, but you can rarely expect a win or even major league caliber defense behind him on any given day.

This shouldn’t scare anyone off Smith completely, but you do sort of wish he were on a different team (not the Rockies).

Verdict:

The White Sox may have something in their Rule 5 draft pick this year. Smith throws hard and limits hard contact with his fastball, leading to strong outcomes, even if they’re inflated by an artificially low BABIP. His changeup is the jewel of the arsenal, and should be a pitch Smith can use to rack up whiffs and strikeouts.

Overall, I like what I see with Smith. The biggest drawbacks are the team he plays for and the good fortune that’s propelled his early-season success. Make no mistake, Smith has had good luck to get to his 2.08 ERA. Still, there’s enough here to make him worth an add in 12-team leagues or deeper.

He should be better in quality start leagues, seeing as he’ll rarely get wins on the White Sox.

Stephen Kolek, San Diego Padres

17% Rostered

2024 Stats (bullpen): 46 2/3 IP, 5.21 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 12.8% K-BB%

5/10 @ COL: 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

The Padres may’ve given Kolek 21 runs of support on Saturday, but that was 20 more runs than the right-hander needed. Kolek went the distance, tossing the rare complete game shutout en route to his second straight victory. Kolek has yet to allow a run in his first two starts of the season and seems to be filling in nicely at the back end of San Diego’s rotation.

He should at least have a job until Yu Darvish returns, but if Kolek continues to pitch well, he could carve out a permanent role for himself. Randy Vasquez’s spot in the rotation is hardly secure. Is there anything here with Kolek, or is he someone to ignore?

Originally an 11th-round draft pick by the Dodgers back in 2018, Kolek was never much of a prospect. He was traded from Los Angeles to Seattle for cash, and then selected by San Diego in the 2023 Rule 5 draft. Not much prospect pedigree, and his organization hardly seemed to think much of him.

Kolek works with a six-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, cutter, slider, and sweeper. He’s only thrown a handful of sweepers thus far, but he’s used all other pitches at least 10% of the time through two starts.

Kolek’s most-used pitch has been his four-seam fastball, and his second-most-used pitch has been the sinker. Together, he’s thrown the pitches a combined 60.7% of the time. Kolek averages 94.4 mph with his fastball and can touch 96. With below-average drop, break, and average spin, Kolek’s fastball doesn’t stand out from a measurables perspective.

One thing Kolek does well with the pitch is induce groundballs. Kolek had a 54.5% ground-ball rate with the pitch last season, and a 53.8% ground-ball rate with it thus far. Throughout his minor league career, whether as a starter or reliever, Kolek has routinely been a strong groundball pitcher, and his fastballs play a big part in that approach.

Batters have struggled against Kolek’s four-seamer thus far, hitting just .222 with a .278 SLG and .288 wOBA against, though Kolek has only made two starts. In addition to the four-seamer, Kolek’s sinker has proven to be an excellent groundball pitch as well. Kolek used his sinker a lot more out of the pen last season (41.2%) than as a starter this season (26.1%), but it has the makings of a great groundball offering.

Kolek has a plus drop with the pitch, which can cause hitters to swing over the pitch and into ground-ball outs. Kolek had a -3-degree average launch angle with the pitch last season and a -12-degree average launch angle against with the pitch this season. He also has a monster 83.3% ground-ball rate through two starts after posting a 63.5% ground-ball rate with the pitch last season.

Opponents are hitting .357 off the sinker thus far, but one would expect the .417 BABIP against the pitch to drop significantly over time.

So, Kolek is a good groundball guy with perfectly average velocity. What about his secondary stuff? His most prominent secondary offering may be the cutter, which he’s only thrown 10.1% of the time this season, but used 19.1% of the time last season. A 90.8 mph offering, Kolek’s cutter is characterized by rather average movement and spin.

Like a lot of cutters, it’s sort of a harder, less sweepy version of his slider.

The pitch does have the best whiff rate of any of Kolek’s pitches at 37.5%, but I’m not sure that’ll hold. He only had a 19.8% whiff rate with the pitch last season, and he only got one whiff with the pitch in this start despite throwing 104 pitches and 11 cutters. The two whiffs he got on three swings in the start before Saturday are likely juicing the numbers a bit.

When it comes to strikeouts, Kolek may be lacking, and that’s despite having a name that’s bookended by the letter K. Kolek only had an 18.5% strikeout rate last year while pitching out of the bullpen and throwing a full mph harder. The cutter isn’t a strong strikeout pitch, but neither are the rest of his secondary offerings.

He only has a double-digit swinging-strike rate with one pitch this season—the cutter—and he doesn’t have a single pitch with a swinging-strike rate higher than 11% for his career. Kolek did put up some better strikeout numbers in the minors, but I’m just not seeing it with his stuff. His stuff doesn’t seem to be able to miss bats at the major league level.

Verdict:

A CGSO is always impressive in 2025, even more so when it comes in Coors Field. Less so when the opponent is the Rockies, but an impressive outing from Kolek nonetheless. Kolek throws with mid-90s velocity and takes a ground-ball heavy approach. His four-seamer and especially sinker are great at inducing groundballs, and this is a skill that Kolek should possess, whether he’s working as a starter or reliever.

His secondary stuff leaves something to be desired, and Kolek does not possess the big strikeout upside we like to see in waiver wire arms. Even though this most recent start was terrific, we can’t expect nine innings or even him going past six with any regularity.

He’s a low-ceiling streamer on a good team that could snag him some wins, but there doesn’t seem to be another level here.

Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox

18% Rostered

2025 Stats (prior to this start): 9 2/3 IP, 8.38 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 13.3% K-BB%

5/11 @ KC: 6 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 5 K

Giolito had his best start of the season on Sunday, allowing just one unearned run over six 2/3 innings while picking up his first win of the season. Giolito was once considered a fantasy asset, posting a 3.47 ERA. 3.54 FIP, and 22.7% K-BB% in 72 starts between 2019-2021, but injuries have derailed his career, and he’s pitching in his first action since 2023 this season.

Can Giolito return to past glory, or are those days long gone?

Originally a first-round pick by the Nationals back in 2012, Giolito was a huge prospect coming up. He was considered one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball in the mid-2010s and was a key piece in the Adam Eaton trade between the Nationals and White Sox. Giolito works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. It’s a classic arsenal, and one that Giolito used to mow down the Royals on Sunday.

His most used pitch on Sunday is his most used pitch in general, the four-seam fastball. Giolito averaged 94 mph with his heater in this one, which is a big improvement because he averaged just 91.6 mph on the gun in his previous start against Texas, a start in which he was lit up for six runs on 10 hits in three 2/3 innings.

During his heyday of 2019-2021, Giolito averaged 94 mph with his four-seamer, so seeing the velocity tick back up is an encouraging sign. He also had a spin rate of 2264 RPM in this start, which is creeping back up towards his 2019-2021 levels. Giolito’s fastball averaged about 2300 RPM in those days, but he had just 2172 RPM with the pitch last season.

It’s nice to see the measurables improve on this pitch, and it suggests that Giolito is on the right track.

Giolito’s second-most-used pitch in this start is one that he hadn’t been throwing as often before Sunday, and that’s his slider. Giolito threw the slider 22% of the time against Kansas City, but has just a 9.9% usage rate on the year. While not his most dominant strikeout pitch (that would be the changeup), the slider played a key role in his past success.

Interestingly, the slider velocity is also up, going from 84 mph last season to 87.7 mph this season.

Giolito’s career mark is 84.5 mph, so this would represent a big jump in slider velocity for him. Giolito currently has a 20% swinging-strike rate and a 44.4% chase rate with his slider on the year. Those numbers likely won’t last, but Giolito does have a 16.3% career swinging-strike rate with the slider, and now it has a little extra juice. Giolito earned five of his 10 whiffs with the slider in this start, so hopefully the usage continues to trend upwards.

Giolito also featured his changeup prominently in this start, throwing it 19% of the time. Oddly enough, he failed to secure a single whiff with the pitch and has just a 7.9% swinging-strike rate with the pitch this season. Batters are hitting just .190 off the pitch with a 36.7% chase rate, so perhaps we can chalk this up to small sample size and odd pitch mix in his first two starts.

Giolito barely used his curveball or slider in his first two starts, which may’ve led to an overreliance on the changeup, especially against right-handed batters, where Giolito should feature his slider and curveball more often. The changeup was Giolito’s go-to out pitch against lefties, and he does like to use it against righties as well, but he needs the slider and curveball to round himself out and give himself a full arsenal.

He was effectively a two-pitch pitcher for his first two starts, which led to poor results.

Giolito looked cooked after posting a 4.89 ERA between 2022 and 2023, but he may not be done after all. There’s plenty of upside in this arm at least; we’re only two years removed from a 204-strikeout season from Giolito back in 2023. His velocity is up, and he’s begun mixing in his secondary stuff more often, which could lead to bigger strikeout numbers.

Even though it feels like he’s been around forever, Gioltio is only 30 and could have plenty left in the tank if healthy.

Great outing for Lucas Giolito.

Velocity was up, pitch mix was much more diverse, went deep into the game, very encouraging. pic.twitter.com/cXD0OoYEab

— Sammy James🔺 (@HebHammer94) May 11, 2025

Verdict:

Giolito's velocity was back in this start and up on his secondary offerings, including a three-mph jump on his slider from 84 to 87 mph. Giolito featured his slider and curveball more prominently in this one, which is an excellent sign as he was operating as a two-pitch pitcher before Sunday.

The combination of a mid-90s fastball, juiced-up slider, and solid changeup should give Giolito plenty of strikeout upside. He is capable of better than his current 7.71 K/9 and could probably at least average one strikeout per inning.

There’s big blow-up potential here, as we saw in the start prior to this one, where Giolito surrendered six runs in three 2/3 innings. There are enough positives here to interest me, and I think Giolito is worth adding in 12-team leagues or deeper. However, I’m not sure I’m ready to put my ratios on the line in a roto or categories league.

Instead, I’d like to see another good start that continues these positive trends before trusting Giolito in my lineup.

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