Champ or Chump: Jordan Lawlar Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Is Jordan Lawlar a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into his 2025 fantasy baseball value.

MLB Pipeline updated its prospect rankings, and Arizona Diamondbacks infielder Jordan Lawlar sits fourth on the top-100 list. The Diamondbacks announced they were calling Lawlar up shortly thereafter, and it makes you wonder if the two events are related.

Regardless, this is the first major in-season call-up for fantasy baseball managers. What should we expect from the 22-year-old? Is his 35 percent roster rate too high, too low, or just right?

Let's take a deep dive into his updated scouting reports, MiLB performance, and team context to determine whether this top prospect will live up to the hype.

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The Scouting Report on Jordan Lawlar

Scouts love Lawlar's long-term prospects, but his chances of delivering an immediate impact receive mixed reviews. MiLB.com sees him as big league-ready right now:

Lawlar runs like the wind with a plus glove, plus hit tool, and MLB-average power, setting him up to succeed immediately. His writeup also notes that Lawlar should steal "30+ bags," which is always music to a fantasy manager's ears.

Unfortunately, FanGraphs doesn't like his short-term prospects as much:

The long-term projections are similar, and FG sees Lawlar as a plus runner with a good glove right now. However, they think Lawlar will need to grow into his power and may not ever develop his "below-average hit tool." The writeup doubles down on his weak hit tool, comping him to Danny Espinosa and Paul DeJong while noting he'll "probably strike out a ton."

Fantasy gamers in dynasty formats have a lot to be excited about, but this is a split decision for redraft leagues.

Jordan Lawlar's MiLB Resume

Lawlar has flown through the Diamondbacks organization since being drafted as a first-rounder in 2021, and injuries have conspired to limit his overall playing time. The result is a bunch of small samples that are difficult for fantasy managers to work with, but we'll try.

He first reached Double-A (Amarillo) in 2022, slashing a tepid .212/.299/.353 with four homers and two steals in 97 plate appearances. He improved dramatically when he repeated the level in 2023, hitting .263/.366/.474 with 15 homers and 33 steals in 410 PA. He was only caught stealing four times, for a success rate of 89 percent.

Lawlar's plate discipline was strong with an 11.5 percent BB% against a 21.7 percent K%, and his .310 BABIP wasn't too crazy. The performance earned him a promotion to Triple-A (Reno), where he hit .358/.438/.612 with five homers and three steals in 80 PA.

Lawlar's plate discipline improved with an 11.3 percent BB% and 15 percent K%, though his .365 BABIP was likely inflated. He was caught stealing once for a 75% success rate, but the sample size is too small to draw valid conclusions. Lawlar got a big league opportunity and earned a walk in the 2023 World Series, but otherwise struggled to a .129/.206/.129 line.

Expectations were high coming into 2024, but a spring training thumb surgery and hamstring woes limited him to just 23 games. Most of them were with Reno, where he slashed .367/.439/.592 with two homers and a steal in 58 PA. A .516 BABIP masked a 29.3 percent K% backed by a 17.1 percent SwStr%, casting doubt on his previously superlative plate discipline.

To be fair, it's a small sample, and Lawlar may still have been dealing with the lingering effects of his injuries. His 12.1 percent BB% suggested that his eye was intact, though his .317 xSLG was alarming.

Lawlar was optioned to Triple-A this season and torched the level for a .336/.413/.579 line with six homers and three steals in 173 PA. His 10.4 percent SwStr% was a massive improvement over 2024 and supported his 22.5 percent K%, while his 25.8 percent chase rate supported his 10.4 percent BB%. His .421 BABIP was high, though.

Overall, Lawlar played well on the farm, but we have to take these numbers with several huge grains of salt. Amarillo is one of the most hitter-friendly environments in professional baseball. According to Baseball America, the stadium had a 160 HR factor, 114 OBP factor, and 116 BABIP factor for right-handed hitters like Lawlar from 2022-2023.

Reno is one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, posting a 94 HR factor and 108 factors for BABIP and OBP per BA. Hitters seldom find worse hitting environments than they're used to in the PCL, but we cannot ignore the possibility that Lawlar benefited from ballparks where video game numbers are commonplace.

Where Will Jordan Lawlar Play?

Defense has always been part of Lawlar's prospect appeal, so it's somewhat surprising that he appeared at shortstop, third base, and second base in Reno this season. The goal was to find Lawlar a permanent home in Phoenix, but that seems unlikely.

The Diamondbacks have established regulars at all three of those positions: 3B Eugenio Suarez (117 wRC+), SS Geraldo Perdomo (138 wRC+), and 2B Ketel Marte (154 wRC+). Marte has outfield experience but hasn't played there since 2021, and the team loves Perdomo, as evidenced by his four-year, $45 million extension this past winter.

Suarez could be traded, but that won't happen until August.

The DH slot won't work since Josh Naylor (125 wRC+) and Pavin Smith (175 wRC+) are both hitting. Smith is a platoon guy, so Lawlar could DH as the short side of a platoon. Yay? Smith also has experience in the corner outfield, but the team isn't benching Corbin Carroll (150 wRC+). Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (70 wRC+) might lose playing time, but Smith's outfield defense isn't well-regarded.

Prevailing wisdom dictates that Arizona wouldn't call Lawlar up without a plan to play him regularly, but the team's plan is convoluted. Per Arizonasports.com, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo believes that Lawlar could play as little as "3-4 times per week" without adversely affecting his development.

Furthermore, he'll rotate around the field to give others a day off rather than having a set position.

True to expectations, Lawlar didn't start the game last night. The club designated Garrett Hampson for assignment to facilitate the move, seemingly setting Lawlar up as the club's utility infielder.

Lawlar has relatively little experience, and adapting to MLB pitching will be harder if he's trying to master multiple defensive positions. It's also tough to see how a guy who needs reps could play every other day, despite what his manager said.

If Lawlar hits the ground running, the Diamondbacks will find a way to make it work. However, he probably won't have much of a leash. An early slump probably sends Lawlar back to the minors to get consistent playing time, especially since Arizona's lineup already has plenty of capable bats.

The Verdict on Jordan Lawlar

Lawlar has an outstanding prospect pedigree and great long-term prospects, but he missed a lot of development time due to injuries last season and played in extremely hitter-friendly environments throughout his minor league career. Many top prospects have struggled in their first taste of MLB lately, and Lawlar is an awkward roster fit in Arizona at best.

Lawlar should steal bases to the extent he plays, but his power hasn't been eye-popping on the farm, prorating to about 20 HRs. His batting average relied on unsustainable BABIPs throughout his professional career, adding further risk. Lawlar has a bright future ahead of him, but likely ends up a Chump for fantasy managers looking for immediate impact.

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