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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/12/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Matt Olson, Christian Walker, Christian Yelich, and more.
We've got a smaller slate of MLB action on Monday, but there are still a few intriguing spots to target for home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include Matt Olson, Christian Walker, Christian Yelich, Seiya Suzuki, and Riley Greene. Each player has elite power or a favorable matchup.
The process behind choosing home run props features a few important factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to make sure that we're getting a nice price in terms of betting odds, but sometimes we're willing to make exceptions -- like with Judge, who is having a Barry Bonds-type of season.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, May 12, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to only risk a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this is a volatile market.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/12/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Monday, May 12:
- Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (+285)
- Christian Walker, Houston Astros (+340)
- Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers (+390)
- Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs (+425)
- Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers (+600)
Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 DraftKings)
Matt Olson drives his 7th homer of the season 431 feet 🚀 pic.twitter.com/C12NN4JeC8
— MLB (@MLB) May 10, 2025
Olson currently carries an underwhelming .224/.356/.413 slash with seven home runs in 174 plate appearances, but the batted ball metrics look promising, including a 16.8% barrel rate and .534 xSLG, per Baseball Savant.
The Braves' slugger is starting to pick it up lately, hitting safely in six of his last seven games with two homers during that stretch. We've seen Olson perform better at home this year, registering an .877 OPS (compared to .686 on the road).
Up next is an exploitable matchup vs. Nationals' righty Jake Irvin. This pitcher has had a tough time with lefties, allowing a 4.79 xFIP and 2.28 HR/9 against them. Olson has punished righties throughout his career, putting up an .881 OPS.
According to Baseball Savant, Truist Park ranks ninth in home runs for lefties using a three-year rolling average of park factors, which is also good news for Olson in this spot.
While this is an expensive price at (+285) odds, I'm willing to take a shot on Olson considering how he's hit the ball hard and takes on a pitcher with a home run problem.
Christian Walker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 DraftKings)
Christian Walker likes Daikin Park.
He's hitting .257 with four doubles, one triple, three homers, 10 RBI and an .813 OPS in 19 home games this season
Over his last nine home games, he's hitting .333 (12x35) with a 1.099 OPS.
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) May 11, 2025
Walker has gotten off to a slow start in his first year with the Astros, slashing .225/.302/.373 with four homers in 159 plate appearances. But we must trust in the track record here, as Walker has 26+ home runs in the last three seasons, including 33 in 2023 and 36 in 2022.
We're starting to see Walker hit the ball well lately, currently on a seven-game hitting streak. The batted ball metrics also look promising, as the veteran first baseman now has a 10.0% barrel rate on the season.
This is a good spot at home against Michael Wacha, who Walker has had success against throughout his career, putting up a .532 xwOBA and one home run in eight plate appearances.
It also helps that Walker has performed better at home, posting a 147 wRC+ (38 wRC+ on the road). This makes sense because Daikin Park ranks 12th for right-handed power.
When you consider Walker's current form, success vs. Wacha, and improved play at home, you can see why the (+340) price looks appealing here. Take a shot on Walker to hit his fifth homer of the season in this spot.
Christian Yelich OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings)
Christian Yelich oppo shot! pic.twitter.com/aRwsUeZZN6
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 11, 2025
Yelich currently has a poor .208/.303/.375 slash, but he does have seven homers in 165 plate appearances. The veteran outfielder went yard yesterday, so perhaps this could be the start of a hot streak. Remember that Yelich has two 35+ homer seasons under his belt, giving him enough of a track record to trust.
While Yelich's batted ball metrics have been poor, as highlighted by a 5.0% barrel rate, he's performed well above league average in xwOBA in his last 100 plate appearances, which means that he's starting to hit the ball harder.
We must also acknowledge Yelich's success vs. Guardians righty Ben Lively, as he's put up a .477 xwOBA with one homer in 15 plate appearances against him. Lefties have crushed Lively this season, allowing a .357 wOBA and 1.83 HR/9 against them (.267 wOBA and 0.82 HR/9 vs. RHP).
This spot could be where Yelich can hit his eighth homer of the year and second in as many days.
At (+390) odds, we're getting a reasonable price on a veteran hitter with a track record, taking on a pitcher who struggles vs. lefties and doesn't miss many bats.
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Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!Seiya Suzuzki OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings)
ANOTHER homer for Seiya Suzuki 😤 pic.twitter.com/fYdMJRHTpO
— MLB (@MLB) May 1, 2025
Suzuki is currently slashing .243/.301/.493 with nine home runs in 166 plate appearances. While the Cubs' slugger hasn't gone yard since May 1, tonight looks like a good time to target him.
This is an exploitable matchup at home against Cal Quantrill, a pitcher that Suzuki has put up a .438 xwOBA in four plate appearances. The Marlins' righty has had a tough time against right-handed hitters, allowing a .480 wOBA and 2.13 HR/9.
It's also been a bit tougher for Quantrill on the road (1.53 HR/9) than at home (1.29 HR/9). Even with the wind blowing in at Wrigley, I'm willing to ride with Suzuki due to the matchup against Quantrill.
This hitter has a 15.4% barrel rate, which ranks in the 89th percentile, so there's plenty of power in this bat.
At (+425) odds, we're getting some nice value on Suzuki, as the price is likely a bit suppressed due to the wind conditions. But considering Quantrill's issues with the long ball, we'll take a chance on Suzuki in this spot.
Riley Greene OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings)
9th homer this year for Riley Greene! pic.twitter.com/czMKsNDAZZ
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 10, 2025
The last home run prop on this page targets Tigers' emerging star Greene, who is currently slashing .257/.315/.474 with nine home runs in 165 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics look terrific as well, as highlighted by a 15.4% barrel rate.
Greene has four homers in his last 12 games, including one on May 10th. We could see the Tigers' outfielder hit his 10th of the year in an exploitable matchup tonight.
This is a spot against Red Sox righty Tanner Houck, who has had a tough time against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .445 wOBA and 2.57 HR/9 against them (.272 wOBA and 0.89 HR/9 vs. righties).
We're getting a good price on Greene at (+600) odds, especially considering that he's already got nine homers and an elite barrel rate.
Let's finish up our home run props by going with Greene against Houck tonight.
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