RADIO
Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 6 in 2025, or just mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 6 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take a look at starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.
It was a weekend full of surprising starts, and picking just three arms to write up was difficult. This week, we're breaking down Brayan Bello's strong start against the Twins, Colin Rea's continued dominance, and Grant Holmes' big outing versus the Dodgers.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of May 5.
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Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox - 30% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 11 IP, 3.27 ERA, 6.33 FIP, 2.1% K-BB%
5/2 vs. MIN: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Bello has been nothing short of fantastic since making his season debut on April 22. Since then, he’s pitched to the tune of a 2.55 ERA and a 2-0 record for Boston, helping solidify a rotation demolished by injuries. Bello has some experience as a fixture in Boston’s rotation over the past two seasons, but has seen inconsistent results.
Between 2023 and 2024, Bello made 58 starts and threw 319 1/3 innings, which is good, but he only had a 4.37 ERA, 4.36 FIP, and 20.8% strikeout rate. That’s just not all that exciting for fantasy. Can Bello be more, or is he just another arm?
Initially signed by Boston as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2017, Bello had some prospect pedigree coming up. He was a fringe top-100 prospect ahead of his debut in 2022 and was viewed as a future starter for the Red Sox. Bello works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, changeup, four-seam fastball, and slider.
It was all about the sinker in this one, as Bello threw the pitch 42.2 percent of the time, his highest usage rate of the season.
A 95 mph offering, Bello’s sinker velocity has slightly decreased since his return from the injured list. He threw it at 95.7 mph last season but only averaged 94.6 in this start. He has plus horizontal and vertical movement with his sinker, and as a result, Bello’s sinker has plus induced vertical break, causing hitters to swing over the pitch.
Have a look at his sinker in this pitch movement profile (orange).
It’s easy to see how hitters could swing over the pitch, and Bello has been a groundball machine with his sinker. Batters have a 0-degree average launch angle against the sinker this season, and had a 1-degree average launch angle against the sinker last season.
Bello has an incredible 62.9% career ground-ball rate with his sinker and has an overall 53.9% career ground-ball rate. The sinker has been Bello’s primary fastball throughout his career, and it’s a strong, classic sinker that should be able to induce groundballs aplenty.
Bello’s primary fastball may be the sinker, but he has reincorporated the four-seam fastball into his repertoire thus far as well. He only threw his four-seamer 4.8 percent of the time last year, but he’s throwing it 16.4 percent of the time through three starts, a rate more in line with his 2022-23 usage than last year.
Last season does seem like the outlier, but it’s worth noting that batters have struggled mightily against Bello’s four-seamer over the past two seasons.
Opponents are hitting .108 with a .135 SLG off Bello’s four-seamer between 2022 and 2023. However, he only has a 5.76 percent usage rate during that period. Bello has gained about an inch of drop and three inches of break with the pitch this season. It’s still a very small sample size, but we like to see this type of improvement.
Perhaps Bello could mix in his four-seamer more frequently with his changeup. He has a better career swinging-strike rate, chase rate, and opponent BA against his four-seamer than his sinker. Increased four-seam usage could lead to an emphasis on strikeouts over groundballs for Bello, increasing his fantasy value.
We’d have to see more four-seam usage for more than just three starts.
Bello has two strong secondary offerings, the slider and the changeup. Let’s start with the changeup, which he threw 21 percent of the time in this start. He also earned five whiffs (12 total) on 11 swings with the pitch, good for a 45% whiff rate.
An 89.3 mph offering that’ll touch 90, Bello’s changeup is characterized by strong horizontal break and low spin. It’s been his best strikeout pitch throughout his career, with Bello posting a 20% swinging-strike rate and a 39.5% chase rate with the pitch all time. Here’s an example from this start.
90 mph and in the dirt, just nasty. From a fantasy perspective, the main issue with the pitch is that he primarily throws it to left-handed hitters. It’s his best strikeout pitch, but Bello’s strikeout upside is handicapped because he doesn’t usually throw his changeup to same-handed batters. He’s tried to overcome that with his slider, to varying degrees of success.
Bello’s slider is the breaking ball he usually uses against righties. Bello's slider is an 85.6 mph offering, characterized by its high spin rate (2506 RPM) and exceptional 41 inches of vertical drop. The numbers on Bello’s slider are a little scary, as opponents are hitting .250 with a .343 xBA, .688 SLG, and .429 wOBA off Bello’s slider this season.
The power numbers are likely inflated due to small sample size, but Bello allowed a .322 wOBA off his slider last season and a .350 wOBA off the pitch in 2023. Batters are hitting .266 with a .412 SLG off Bello’s slider all time, and he has just a 12% swinging-strike rate and 28.1% chase rate with the pitch for his career.
The bottom line is that it’s not as good as his changeup and should be a tertiary offering for Bello.
Then there’s the matter of luck, and just how much good fortune Bello has experienced this season. There are three metrics I like to look at when it comes to pitcher luck: BABIP against, LOB rate, and HR/FB ratio. All of these numbers tend to normalize towards league average over time, so if a pitcher is an outlier in one, it could indicate that regression is due.
For Bello, he has been extra fortunate with a .224 BABIP and 95.7% LOB rate against through his first three starts.
He has a career .317 BABIP against and a career 73.6% LOB rate, so it would be reasonable to expect both of those to normalize over time. When they do, Bello’s 2.55 ERA will certainly rise. He has seemingly been unlucky in the home run department, as Bello has allowed 1.53 HR/9 through three starts and has a bloated 27.3% HR/FB ratio.
His career mark is 14.6%, so we could also expect that to normalize and for Bello to surrender fewer homers going forward. That’s why we shouldn’t be too scared of his 5.43 FIP or 7.37 xERA; both numbers are inflated by an inordinate number of home runs allowed.
Verdict:
Bello has four solid pitches, including two good fastballs, giving him a major league arsenal. He has definitely proven that he has what it takes to stick in a big league rotation. That being said, Bello offers little upside. He isn’t a big strikeout pitcher and the best we could expect from him is probably a 20% strikeout rate.
His changeup has the makings of a strikeout pitch, but he doesn’t use it against righties enough to make a significant impact. Bello has been quite fortunate thus far to have a 2.55 ERA, which will certainly rise, as will his .224 BABIP against.
Bello has been a solid, mid-rotation arm for the past two seasons, and I think he’ll continue to be that. That makes him good for a stream every so often, but not someone I’d roll with every time.
Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs - 26% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 18.2 IP, 0.96 ERA, 1.52 FIP, 21.1% K-BB%
5/1 @ PIT: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
It’s not often that a pitcher winds up in “Are You For Real” after raising their season-long ERA, but that was the case for Rea, whose ERA rose to a crisp 1.46 after holding the Cubs to two runs over six innings. It was actually the first time Rea had allowed multiple runs in a start all season, as well as his first quality start of the season.
Rea has been excellent for the Cubs during the first month, giving their rotation some much-needed stability. But is there any fantasy value to be had here?
Originally a 12th-round draft pick in 2011 by the Padres, Rea has bounced around baseball over the last decade, including being a part of a voided trade between the Padres and Marlins, and two separate stints in Japan. Now, Rea is rolling with the Cubs at the ripe age of 34.
Rea works with a seven-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, cutter, curveball, sweeper, sinker, and splitter. It’s a unique arsenal indeed.
Rea may throw a lot of different pitches, but he relies heavily on one, and that’s his four-seam fastball. He threw the pitch 62 percent of the time against the Pirates in this start, and has used it 52.6 percent of the time this season. With a 93.8 mph offering, Rea’s velocity was up to 94.4 at this start against Pittsburgh.
That’s a positive development for Rea, who only averaged 92.9 mph with his heater last season.
Batters have struggled against Rea’s fastball this season, hitting just .220 with a .280 SLG and .263 wOBA against it. What makes the pitch so effective? Rea has heavy flyball tendencies with his fastball; batters have an 18-degree average launch angle, a 37.8% fly-ball rate, and a 42.9% infield fly-ball rate against Rea’s four-seamer this season.
Flyballs can be great for hitters as they lead to power outcomes, but flyballs are also the least likely batted-ball type to fall for a hit, so a flyball-heavy approach can be successful.
One area of concern I have with Rea is home runs. He allowed his first home run of the season in this start on Thursday, but home runs have proven to be a problem for Rea in the past. He allowed 1.56 HR/9 last season and 1.66 HR/9 the year before.
He’s survived thanks to a microscopic 3.2% HR/FB ratio, which we can expect to rise over time. He has a 13.5% HR/FB ratio for his career and a 1.37 HR/9. I’m not buying the 0.36 HR/9, and as that number rises, so will his ratios.
Rea has also been quite fortunate in the LOB and BABIP departments as well, as he’s currently sporting an 89.4% LOB rate and a .278 BABIP against. Not quite Bello levels of luck, but good fortune nonetheless. We should certainly expect regression for Rea going forward, and I’d expect his ERA to align closer to his 3.77 xFIP or 3.72 SIERA, rather than the current 1.46 or 2.50 FIP.
Both are way lower than what Rea can produce over a full season.
Another issue I have with Rea: none of his pitches stand out; he’s sort of a junk-baller. Last season, he relied heavily on his sinker, throwing it 31.1 percent of the time, but he’s only used it 6.2 percent of the time this season. That might be a good thing for Rea, as batters have slugged .556 off his sinker this season after hitting .297 with a .479 SLG off the pitch last year.
In fact, Rea was a sinker-over-four-seam guy in his previous two seasons with Milwaukee. The heavy four-seam approach is new with his move to Chicago. It’s working for him so far, but I’m not sure how sustainable Rea’s performance is in the long term.
His best breaking ball is probably his slider, which has a solid 15.2% swinging-strike rate this season, although he has just a 26.3% chase rate with the pitch. Opponents have also handled Rea’s slider well, hitting .375 with a .335 wOBA off the pitch.
We could expect some regression on the .333 BABIP off his slider, and all of the hits have been singles, but a .367 xBA and 41.7% line-drive rate both suggest that Rea has earned these results.
The slider is definitely Rea’s best strikeout pitch. For his career, Rea has an 11.6% swinging-strike rate and a 29.5% chase rate with his slider. It’s his best strikeout pitch, but strikeouts have been hard for Rea to come by. He has a 19.3% strikeout rate and a 7.39 K/9 for his career, along with a 21.2% strikeout rate and 7.66 K/9 this season.
There’s no reason to think Rea could pitch above these levels, limiting his upside.
Something Rea does well is limit walks, and he’s displayed excellent control this season. He has just a 1.82 BB/9 on the year and a 2.73 BB/9 for his career. Keeping runners off the bases is good, especially if we think home run regression is coming. The long balls hurt, but they hurt less when there’s nobody on base.
For this reason, Rea could be a good source of WHIP relative to his ERA. Even as the ERA rises, Rea could be a WHIP stabilizer thanks to him keeping runners off the bases.
Verdict:
Is Colin Rea a 1.46 ERA pitcher? The answer is a definitive no, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t some value to be had here. Rea has focused more on using his four-seam fastball this season, and with increased velocity, it has been working for him. He doesn’t have a standout secondary offering and thus cannot earn strikeouts beyond a league-average rate.
Rea is a flyball-heavy, pitch-to-contact type, which can be scary for fantasy, especially as we enter the warmer months. Expect regression. His 1.46 ERA and 1.05 WHIP will regress. His .278 BABIP and 89.4% LOB rate will regress. His 0.36 HR/9 and 3.2% HR/FB ratio will regress.
Still, when it’s all said and done, we should have a streamable pitcher on a good team that we can use in a pinch. He won’t win you your league, but against soft matchups like Pittsburgh, I think Rea is in play.
Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves - 30% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 28 IP, 4.50 ERA, 5.47 FIP, 7.7% K-BB%
5/2 vs. LAD: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
Holmes was a tough-luck loser on Friday night, going toe-to-toe with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and fanning nine Dodgers in the process. A popular preseason sleeper, Holmes has had a rocky start to the year. He’s flashed brilliance at times, like on Friday versus the Dodgers, but he’s also struggled with control and been hit hard at times as well.
He surrendered six runs and three home runs to Arizona in his start prior to this one. So, has Holmes figured something out? Is this sleeper ready to wake up, or should we keep him on the wire?
Originally a first-round pick by the Dodgers back in 2014 out of Conway, SC, Holmes bounced around the Dodgers and Athletics systems before coming to Atlanta in his late 20s. He made his big league debut at 28 last season and had a 10.69 K/9 and 3.30 xFIP as a starter.
Holmes works with a six-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, cutter, changeup, and sinker. He throws the latter two under two percent of the time, so we’ll focus on his primary four offerings.
Holmes’ most used pitch is his four-seam fastball, but let’s start with his best pitch, the slider. An 85.2 mph offering, Holmes’s slider is best characterized by its exceptional vertical movement and high 2847 RPM spin rate. Here’s an example from this start.
Good stuff, and batters have really struggled against this pitch this season. Opponents are hitting .109 off Holmes’s slider with a .174 SLG and .169 wOBA. However, the expected stats don’t suggest that these numbers will hold, as Holmes has a .240 xBA, .432 xSLG, and .317 xwOBA against his slider this season.
There’s just no way that the .138 BABIP against his slider holds over time, which will cause these numbers to rise. I don’t think that alone is enough to unravel Holmes, but it’s a little discouraging that he’s overperforming with his best pitch, yet still has a 4.24 ERA through 34 innings.
Holmes does have an impressive 18.6% swinging-strike rate and a 34.4% chase rate with the slider this season, so it does seem to have the makings of a strikeout pitch.
The slider isn’t Holmes’ only strong secondary offering. He also has a cutter and curveball to lean on. Oddly enough, his curveball usage has dropped over his last two starts. He has a 17.5 percent curveball usage rate this season, but threw it just 7.4 percent of the time against the Dodgers and just 4.3 percent of the time against the Diamondbacks.
His curveball usage had gone down in each of his last three starts before Friday, when it technically rose from 4.3 percent to 7.4 percent.
What gives? Holmes’ curveball has proven rather effective this season, with batters managing just a .118 AVG, .118 SLG, and .229 wOBA off the pitch thus far. Reducing his curveball usage could be an effort to reduce the number of walks he issues, as his curveball has just a 36.9% zone rate and a 21.7% BB rate this season.
Walks have been a significant issue for Holmes this season, and he’s currently sporting a 5.03 BB/9. That number has to drop one way or another, and if it means dialing back the curveball, then so be it.
A reduction in curveball usage isn’t what I want to see from Holmes, and it could limit his upside by effectively taking one of his plus breaking balls off the board. He got nine strikeouts in this one, but got knocked around in the outing beforehand. He has replaced his curveball usage with the cutter, as he threw his cutter a season-high 21.3 percent of the time in this one.
It only got two of his 15 whiffs, but batters are hitting just .154 off Holmes’ cutter with a .231 SLG and .333 wOBA.
There is a theme in Holmes’ secondary pitch outcomes: good BABIP luck. He has a BABIP of .200 or lower against all three secondary pitches and has a .203 BABIP against overall despite a 4.24 ERA. Regression will come for Holmes, so he needs to limit the free passes before the hits start dropping in.
He didn’t struggle with walks to this degree last year or in the minors, so hopefully, Holmes can overcome this, but we need to see it first.
Verdict:
Holmes has a deep arsenal of strong secondary offerings, and with decent velocity, there might be something cooking here. Holmes has significant strikeout upside for a waiver wire pitcher, but he could damage one’s ratios at the same time. His slider looks like a bona fide strikeout pitch, and batters have really struggled against his slider, curveball, and cutter this season.
Unfortunately, even with a .203 BABIP, Holmes still has a 4.24 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
He’s really struggled with walks this season in an uncharacteristic fashion. Holmes doesn’t have a long track record, so I’d hesitate to say he’ll definitely regress, but I don’t expect a 13.6% walk rate all season. Holmes has plenty of upside, but he’s still a work in progress and will probably be volatile this season.
He’s the type of pitcher I like to use in desperate situations, such as being down in a weekly league and needing his points/strikeouts/wins to claw your way back. I wouldn’t use him if trying to protect ratios; it’s just not clear what you’ll get on a start-by-start basis, but he does have the potential to pop off for nine strikeouts like we saw on Friday.
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