RADIO
Three fantasy football rookie WR sleepers to target based on yards per route run. Corbin Young breaks down yards per route run for Tre Harris, Pat Bryant, and Andrew Armstrong.
In one of my first fantasy football articles covering NFL Draft prospects, we looked at three rookies who stood out via yards per route run. The landing spot and actual draft capital mattered since they showed how NFL teams value those players.
That said, we will switch it up and examine the 11 wide receiver prospects in the 2025 draft-eligible group who had 2.50 yards per route run against man and zone coverages. We won't highlight all players. However, we'll focus on several notable names. The visual below shows the receivers who reached the 2.50 yards per route run mark against zone and man in 2024.
Like any metric, yards per route run is one piece of the puzzle. However, it gives us a pathway to dive deeper if a player produced at a high rate, especially compared to their projected draft capital. We'll examine one Day 2 receiver, and two others projected as Day 3 options via their production, yards per route run, and other underlying metrics.
Tre Harris (WR, Ole Miss)
Harris spent three seasons at Louisiana Tech and his final two years at Ole Miss. He peaked in his fifth collegiate season in 2024, with a 39 percent Receiver Dominator (RecDom) and 3.78 receiving yards per team pass attempt (RecYPTA). The visual below shows the 2025 receiving prospect leaders sorted by RecYPTA in 2024.
Unsurprisingly, Harris saw his best production with Jaxson Dart's two peak seasons in 2023 and 2024. Dart averaged over 10 yards per attempt in 2023, increasing to 11.5 in 2024. Ole Miss ranked in the top 10 in points forced, second in passing yards, second in total yardage, and ninth in PFF Offensive Team Grades.
That shows us the team had a prolific offense, with Harris and Dart being dynamic. It's especially notable since it came against SEC competition. Harris battled lower-body injuries in 2024, which seemed vague until there were reports that he injured his groin.
Before injuring his groin in late November, he missed six weeks prior. One can dream of his potential production if he stayed healthy for most of the season, with the highest yards per route run (5.15) among the draft-eligible receiver prospects.
Reasons for Optimism
Harris broke the system, with 9.85 yards per route run against man and 4.40 versus zone coverages. Some asked whether that was a typo, and it wasn't after checking several times. For context, Xavier Legette and Rome Odunze led the 2024 rookie class in yards per route run against man coverage, with Malik Nabers boasting an elite 4.42 yards per route versus zone.
Harris showed he can be efficient while garnering a high target rate. That's evident in Harris ranking third in targets per route run (38 percent) behind Tory Horton (39.6 percent) and Efton Chism III (38.5 percent) among the 2025 rookie class.
That shows us Harris earns targets at a high rate and produces efficiently, which we love to see in fantasy football. We would have more concerns if Harris didn't earn targets while being efficient with a lower target rate like Marvin Mims Jr. in his rookie season.
Reasons for Concern
Injuries and age might be a concern for Harris. However, he has the sixth-highest draft capital among the 2025 wide receiver prospects as a Day 2 selection in the second round. NFL mock drafts have Harris behind Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden III, Emeka Egbuka, and Matthew Golden.
The other concern might be the manufactured targets with 47.4 percent of his opportunities coming in the short area of the field (0-9 yards). Harris had the sixth-highest short-area target rate among the 2025 prospects. Theoretically, Harris was likely the first read on short-area targets from Dart, which we see on film.
However, we expect his yards after the catch (No. 10) and missed tackles forced per reception (No. 27) to align. On film, the route running on medium to deep targets shows up, including his ability to make contested catches.
Harris's Pre-NFL Draft 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Harris came out via the spreadsheet as the WR4 in the most recent update, close to his projected draft capital at WR6. He checks several boxes since he wins against man and zone coverages. Furthermore, he earns targets at a high rate while producing efficiently, showing signs of being a difference-maker in fantasy football, especially considering the Day 2 draft capital. Harris goes in the late second round of rookie drafts but could steam up to a late first.
Pat Bryant (WR, Illinois)
Bryant improved each season at Illinois, with a peak season in 2024. Though Bryant's raw production of 978 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns don't pop off the page, he had the eighth-best receiving yards per team pass attempt and the fifth-highest Receiver Dominator in 2024 among the draft-eligible receivers.
The career production metrics and projected draft capital give him a lukewarm set of top comparisons, including Devin Street, Terrance Williams, Travis Fulgham, and Romeo Doubs.
Admittedly, the spreadsheet tends to weigh some of the production metrics more heavily for the 2024 season than the career metrics, plus some other relevant metrics, boosting him up to WR3 in 2025 after the NFL Combine.
Reasons for Optimism
Bryant was one of five 2025 prospects with 3.00 yards per route run against man and zone coverages. The other receivers include Dont'e Thornton Jr., Jalen Royals, Harris, and Tory Horton. Bryant, Royals, and Harris have projected draft capital as Day 2 picks.
Meanwhile, Horton projects as an earlier Day 3 selection, with Thornton going past pick 200. Thornton had the seventh-highest NFL Combine IQ Athleticism Score. Draft capital and landing spots help as tiebreakers when the data points toward these five players being ones to monitor for real-life and fantasy football purposes.
Reasons for Concern
The main concern is the lack of production before his fourth year in college. That's especially so considering Isaiah Williams (82-1,055-5) outproduced Bryant in 2023. The team context and production profile are different, but sometimes we should be cautious with late breakouts like Legette or other one-year wonders.
In the 2024 receiver class, eight players with 0.90 yards or more per team attempt in their final college season compared to their career average. Six receivers in the 2025 class met those marks, including Nick Nash, Efton Chism III, Harris, Bryant, Keandre Lambert-Smith, and Jack Bech.
The flipside argument would be missing out on Brian Thomas Jr., who had over 1.20 yards per team pass attempt in his final season compared to his career. However, that might be the outlier case, which we should evaluate on an individual basis.
Bryant's Pre-NFL Draft 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
We won't consider ourselves film bros, but Bryant's 2024 film pops like the data. He makes plays all over the field, on the sidelines, and in the middle of the field. That's evident in Bryant garnering deep, medium, and short targets over 20-25 percent of the time, showing the team's usage.
The visual above shows receivers with a deep and medium target rate of 25 percent or higher, with short-area targets at 20 percent or more. Bryant should be a versatile asset for an NFL team, leading to fantasy production because he won't be locked into a specific role. Prioritize or flag Bryant in dynasty and rookie drafts.
Andrew Armstrong (WR, Arkansas)
Armstrong might be one of my flag-plant players in the 2025 NFL Draft class. He came out as WR5 via the spreadsheet in my Post-NFL Combine update, landing in the same spot before the event. Armstrong sneakily had the highest career yards per team pass attempt at 2.88, tying him with Ricky White.
I added target depth to the spreadsheet + some other 2025 wide receiver prospects I missed, like Andrew Armstrong, who is a pretty intriguing prospect based on his size and production metrics.
Armstrong's notable metrics:
✅Fourth-highest receiving yards per team pass attempt… pic.twitter.com/RJRHzf90Sr— Corbin (@corbin_young21) February 5, 2025
Though Armstrong saw his career Receiver Dominator fall from his first season at Texas A&M Commerce, he improved in his second season at Arkansas, his final collegiate year. Armstrong's journey is something to remember.
As a data-focused person, it's also important to acknowledge the narrative pieces of his game. Armstrong was mentioned as having a chip on his shoulder after coming from a Division II college at Texas A&M Commerce.
That's especially true considering he was under-recruited as a high school prospect. He possesses the type of work ethic and mindset we want in an athlete and person.
Reasons for Optimism
Besides having a dominant production profile, Armstrong was one of 11 receivers in the 2025 class with 2.50 yards per route run against man and zone coverages in 2024, as shown earlier. He had the 10th-highest targets per route rate (29.1 percent) among the receiving prospects, showing he earns targets. Armstrong had an above-average first down per reception rate at 65.4 percent, tying him with White and behind McMillan.
Reasons for Concern
Armstrong was in college for six seasons, including four at Texas A&M, two being redshirt seasons, and one during COVID-19. We could argue that breakout ages and youth in the prospects might need to be recalibrated, especially with many transferring schools and having an extra year due to the pandemic.
Besides the age and late-career production, Armstrong's projected draft capital puts him as a late Day 3 selection in the seventh round. It feels reminiscent of his experience as a high school player being under-recruited heading into college.
Additionally, Armstrong saw the fourth-highest percentage of his targets in the short area of the field (0-9 yards). Meanwhile, Armstrong had the 15th-highest target rate in the middle parts (10-19 yards) among the 2025 draft-eligible receivers. That could suggest Arkansas schemed up touches for Armstrong as its top playmaker or how it thought his skill set fit best.
Armstrong's Pre-NFL Draft 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Armstrong's strong collegiate data in 2024 matches the film since we see him making plays as one of the team's top targets on the first or second reads. He improved throughout his college career, going from Division II to the SEC.
Armstong can make splash plays while producing efficiently and be a possession-type receiver for an NFL team. That makes him a versatile receiving prospect who might be one of the steals in the 2025 NFL Draft. If the dynasty and redraft community continue sleeping on him, soak up the value as a low-risk, high-reward player.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
More NFL Rookie Analysis
