Fantasy Football Lessons Learned - Things I Was Right About This Year

Every fantasy football season brings plenty of hits and plenty of misses. Rob looks at his top picks and hits from a fantasy football expert accuracy perspective.

The 2024 fantasy football season is over. Now is the time to look back to see what we got right and wrong. Every wrong doesn't mean we were wrong; every right doesn't mean we were right. Technically, it does, but that shouldn't always be the takeaway.

Sometimes, our process was correct, but bad luck just got in the way. In this game that we play, that happens. Take Chris Godwin in 2023. He finished in the top 25 in targets, receptions, yards, red zone, and end zone targets but had just two touchdowns. Due to this, he underperformed against his ADP. If you were in on Godwin, you were wrong, but was the process wrong? Now, this may not matter for Godwin in 2023, it can make all the difference in future decisions.

Part one of this series already looked at what I got wrong and the takeaways. Some didn't have any takeaways. Some were bad luck. In this article, we'll be looking at some of my biggest hits for 2024. Let's get to it because for me, this one is a lot more fun.

Holding Myself Accountable

I always get a good kick from the “hold yourself accountable” takes from some in the fantasy football community. Most of the time, it comes from where others want to point out your bad calls, but what good does that do?

We all make bad calls in this game, and sometimes, lessons aren’t learned. Sometimes, bad luck and variance are at fault; all you can do is take it on the chin and move on.

While I’m not too keen on the “hold yourself accountable” mantra, I get a good kick out of looking at what I got right and wrong and determining if there is a takeaway. Sometimes there are, sometimes there just aren’t. We've already hit on the bad, so now, let's look at the hits.

The Big Hits

Buying Tee Higgins

Higgins finished the year tied for second in half-PPR PPG with Justin Jefferson at 16.21 PPG. The only player he trailed was his teammate Ja’Marr Chase. Higgins was someone I wrote multiple articles about as someone I was targeting.

While I didn’t foresee him finishing as a top five receiver, I did mention that he had finished as a top 12 receiver in the past, and that outcome was possible. I ended up with Higgins in three out of the five leagues I’m in.

76.83% of fantasy managers who started Tee Higgins in the championship WON 🔥 pic.twitter.com/nBP2ekxhew

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) December 31, 2024

He was routinely ranked as a high-end WR3 during draft season. Higgins could often be had around WR26-WR30. If you drafted him this season, you got a massive positive return on your investment. Being “in” on Higgins was one of my biggest success stories of 2024.

Being “In” on Chris Godwin

Godwin had a down season in 2023, mainly because he only had two touchdowns. However, he was in the top 25 in targets, receptions, yards, red zone, and end zone targets. While everyone was talking about Mike Evans, Godwin was a real value.

Godwin was ranked outside the top 30, and that was a price I was very much in on. Like Higgins, I couldn’t have expected what transpired, but through the first seven weeks, Godwin averaged 16.1 half-PPR PPG. For the season, that finished as the WR4. While the injury hurt a lot of fantasy managers, if you drafted him where he was going, you were still very happy with the return.

Brian Thomas Jr.

I loved the value with Thomas. I loved how his strengths meshed well with Trevor Lawrence's strengths. I thought he could have 120 targets, which is right around what he ended up with.

Rookie WRs with 1200 + 10 receiving TDs in a season:

1998 - Randy Moss
2014 - Odell Beckham Jr.
2021 - Ja’Marr Chase
2024 - Brian Thomas Jr. pic.twitter.com/dhZ9DGYCmU

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) January 4, 2025

Given his big-play ability, he would smash if Thomas could garner 120 targets. He was being drafted around WR50, and the upside was off the charts. I was also very much interested in Lawrence. He started slow (like he always does), then played like a top 10 quarterback for several weeks, and then got hurt.

Thomas, however, kept producing with Mac Jones. He finished as the WR11 in half-PPR PPG and was the No. 1 receiver in half-PPR PPG during the fantasy playoffs.

Ladd McConkey

While many fantasy managers were worried about the lack of passing volume with the Chargers, I was pretty comfortable ignoring that noise, at least to the extent that it was a big concern. The passing volume was going to drop (it did), but it was enough to sustain an elite receiver.

Yards Per Route Run Leaders when lined up out wide:

1. A.J. Brown - 3.67
2. Puka Nacua - 3.65
3. LADD MCCONKEY - 3.35
4. Nico Collins - 3.21
5. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 3.00

Let's not do the "Ladd is slot-only" thing this offseason, yeah?

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) January 3, 2025

The other part of this equation was outside of McConkey, the Chargers had no one else. I was excited about McConkey’s target potential prospects, lack of target competition, Justin Herbert, and Jim Harbaugh’s winning tradition. McConkey had an ADP of around WR40 but finished as the WR20 but was WR11 from Weeks 8-17. Drafting him gave fantasy managers a huge positive return.

Being Out on CJ Stroud

I never expected Stroud’s season to go the way it did. However, I was out on Stroud at his price, but I didn’t expect such a drastic and sharp decline. Still, avoiding easily out on Stroud meant I avoided his 2024 season in all of my leagues.

Average QBR since Week 10:

Bryce Young: 58.1
CJ Stroud: 40.5

(average is 50)

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) December 30, 2024

He had an ADP near the top five for quarterbacks. He finished outside the top 20. Wide receiver injuries didn’t help, but that’s no excuse for such a hard tumble down the fantasy football ranks. This was one landmine I was glad to have avoided.

Buying Joe Burrow

Not that Joe Mixon was a great running back in terms of efficiency, but he was someone the team trusted to handle a lot of volume. With him being traded to Houston and replaced by Zack Moss, it signaled that Cincinnati would pass a lot.

🔥 70% Completion Percentage
🔥 108.5 Passer Rating
🔥 4,918 Passing Yards
🔥 45 Total Touchdowns
🔥 5-Game Winning Streak to get to 9-8

The Best Season of Joe Burrow's Career. 👑 #MVP pic.twitter.com/GnfaYjO3wY

— Cincinnati 💔 (@CincyProblems) January 5, 2025

I didn’t expect their defense to be good either, which is another positive for fantasy football, but I never expected their defense to be as awful as it was. Regardless, being in on Burrow and Higgins were two calls that provided a ton of value, especially when made together.

Solid Hits

Four Receiver Wins

I loved the upside of Jameson Williams, Darnell Mooney, and Terry McLaurin at their respective costs. Mooney and McLaurin were on the verge of easily playing with their careers' best quarterbacks.

Mooney was drafted around WR70. Williams was around WR50, and McLaurin around WR30. McLaurin finished as the WR16, Williams was WR17, and Mooney was WR41. All three players, especially McLaurin and Williams, provided big wins against their preseason ADP.

Jameson Williams pic.twitter.com/1WTwKEbs8m

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 3, 2025

I was out on Michael Pittman. With Josh Downs’ ascension as a rookie and the quarterback concerns with Anthony Richardson, drafting Pittman came with too much risk, in my opinion. Risk isn’t always a bad thing, though.

The problem with Pittman’s 2024 outlook was that there was no realistic upside. Pittman isn’t a downfield threat, so big yardage totals depended on volume. With Richardson at quarterback, that seemed unlikely. As did the chances of high touchdown totals. Ignoring him was a major landmine avoided.

Three Right Tight End Calls

Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave put up similar numbers as rookies during their stretches as the starter. Kraft looked more explosive. However, their preseason ADPs didn’t remotely acknowledge the possibility that Kraft was better.

Their NFL draft capital wasn’t all that much different. While Musgrave was a top 15 ranked fantasy tight end, Kraft couldn’t even crack the top 25. Sure, the injury to Musgrave helped (a ton), but targeting Kraft because he might become the starter still provided a solid return.

I wanted nothing to do with Sam LaPorta at his ADP. I called him one of the most overrated players in preseason rankings. Much of his 2023 success came from a high touchdown rate, which was unlikely to be replicated.

On top of that, being in on Jameson Williams decreases the target volume in Detroit. More targets for Williams meant fewer targets for someone else. I believe that was unlikely to be Amon-Ra St. Brown and would most likely be LaPorta.

With Kmet, that was an easy player to avoid. Chicago had three high-level receivers, a strong pass-catching running back, and a rookie running back. Even the best quarterbacks in the game couldn’t support all those players.

The worst-skilled player out of that bunch was Kmet. Assuming Williams was good, he’d be the first to get pinched, which was never a guarantee. If he wasn't, Kmet and someone else would get pinched. That turned out to be Rome Odunze. Avoiding these two tight ends was the correct call.

Believing in James Conner

Conner has routinely been roped into this boring group of running backs that fantasy managers often think will be replaced when a new, shiny toy gets added. That’s what happened this past summer. There was a lot of hype around Trey Benson that he would eventually take over.

I never bought it. I stated that I thought this backfield would play out much like the Seahawks' backfield the year they took Zach Charbonnet. Ken Walker remained the clear, undisputed No. 1 running back, and Charbonnet was the backup.

The same thing played out in Arizona. Conner was a true, three-down workhorse again for Arizona. He was being drafted around RB20, slightly past that in some cases, but finished as the RB14. That’s a solid win.

Not Writing Off Stefon Diggs

Diggs was drafted around WR20 and finished at WR21, so drafting him didn’t net any positive returns. At least not directly. Plenty of opinions believed that Tank Dell would be the Texans’ No. 2 receiver this season—even the No. 1 receiver in some cases.

I was out on Dell at his price point. I thought there wouldn’t be enough consistent volume between Nico Collins and Diggs to give Dell a positive return at his WR30 ADP. He finished the year around WR50. So, being in on Diggs didn’t directly net me a substantial positive return. Diggs largely did what his ADP suggested. Believing in Diggs did mean not buying any Dell this season, which turned into a massive win.

Not Buying Calvin Ridley

The new head coach, Brian Callahan, formed the Bengals’ offensive coordinator this offseason and talked about moving Ridley around more. He mentioned playing Ridley in the Ja’Marr Chase role. I never bought it. With DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Boyd on the roster, Ridley was again best situated for the same downfield he had in 2023.

With Hopkins on the roster, Ridley was an absolute disaster. He had an ADP around WR35 but averaged just 6.5 half-PPR PPG during the first seven weeks of the season until Hopkins was traded. This positioned him right around WR65. Ridley got better after the trade, but passing on Ridley was still the correct decision. He was a complete no-show for half the season.

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