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Zach's top DraftKings NBA DFS picks for today, Friday, 11/18/24. His favorite daily fantasy basketball lineup sleepers and value picks for DraftKings DFS.
It was a lousy day overall in DFS NFL, so I'm jonesing to get back on the winning train immediately. What better way to do that than with a tidy six-game dance card in the NBA? As is custom this year, DraftKings has lopped off the two night games, but three of the six games have an O/U of over 232 points.
Several teams we're targeting tonight are on the second night of a back-to-back, so be on the lookout for any shenanigans. Any value plays that open up in those games would immediately vault to the top of the priority list.
Let's get to the picks, and be sure to join us in our RotoBaller Discord as we break down all the matchups, and discuss lineups until lock time!
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DraftKings NBA DFS Core Picks
Cade Cunningham, DET - PG ($9,200)
Cade Cunningham's meteoric rise to top-tier stardom continued last night as he posted his fourth triple-double of the season (with five steals!) against the Wizards. Cunningham's price has not moved overnight, making him one of the top per-dollar plays on the slate tonight.
Cade is currently rocking a 30.9% usage rate and is averaging a shade under 50 DK PPG (which is over 5x value of his current price tag). Tonight he gets almost the exact same matchup to exploit, as the Bulls rank first in pace factor and are 27th in defensive efficiency.
Cunningham should be considered one of your top targets in all formats tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK - C ($9,000)
The Knicks are going to be a major focus for cash, but the 13.5-point spread should at least give you pause in GPPs as some of the other contests have similar O/Us with a tighter spread. That said, we have the tightest rotation in the NBA taking on a Wizards team that is third in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency.
KAT has seamlessly transitioned into the Knicks offense, posting a double-double in every contest so far this year except for two (and in one of those he had nine boards). His 51.4 DK PPG average and his 9k price tag do not match, and he can get well past value even in 30 minutes (as we saw last night).
The Wizards have been decimated by centers since the beginning of last year, ranking at the very bottom in rebounding rate. Towns is an unstoppable force both inside and on the perimeter, and Washington has no one capable of slowing him down. Can you tell I'm an excited Knicks fan?https://twitter.com/TommyBeer/status/1858517483646283851
Jalen Brunson, NYK - PG ($8,900)
Continuing the Knicks' run is Brunson. He looks to be having a "down" year alongside Towns, but in actuality has an elite 30.2% usage rate and is averaging 24.6 PPG. His ceiling is a bit capped with Towns being a higher per-minute guy, but you can certainly utilize both in any format.
The Wizards are a top-tier matchup to target for all players, and that extends to point guards. So far, Washington has allowed the most FPPG to the position, and also the second-most assists.
Others Under Consideration: Devin Booker - PG/SG ($9500), Tyrese Haliburton - PG ($8,200)
DraftKings NBA DFS Tournament Pivots
Devin Booker, PHX - PG/SG ($9,500)
Devin Booker's price tag is sitting in a range where it's JUST uncomfortable enough to play with all three aforementioned players being cheaper. It's also a much worse matchup on paper with Orlando ranking second in defensive efficiency (Booker likely gets Suggs as his individual defender).
That said, Booker's assist rate gets a 6% boost with Kevin Durant off the court and we saw him hoist 29 shots last game against Minnesota. Bradley Beal is also out for the foreseeable future, so we could see Booker's usage push into the mid-30% range here. Orlando has also allowed the fifth most assists per game this year.
Franz Wagner, ORL - SF/PF ($9,100)
It's hard to mentally group Franz Wagner in this tier, as he's always been a "nice" player to use if the opportunity was right, but never an upside guy. That's changed with Paolo Banchero out, as Wagner has an elite 31.7% usage rate and 31.8% assist rate.
Wagner has scored over 46.5 DK points in five of his last six games and even flashed a mega ceiling last contest against Philly with a 63.75. Like Booker, I think his price tag is just in that range where ownership will be muted, making him an elite GPP option.
Others Under Consideration: RJ Barrett, TOR - SF/PF ($8,600), Paul George, PHI - SF/PF ($8,300), Alperen Sengun, HOU - C ($8,100)
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DraftKings NBA DFS Value Picks
Mikal Bridges, NYK - SG/SF ($6,600)
More Knicks! After a slow start, Mikal Bridges has finally become what the Knicks envisioned after trading a boatload of firsts for him. Even as the third or fourth scoring option, Bridges has managed to string together a three-game streak of 20+ points and 5+ rebounds.
Should I highlight the matchup again? Washington has given up the third-highest FG% (Mikal thrives in the 15-18 foot range), and has allowed the eighth most FPPG to opposing wings. The Knicks' starters' minutes are one of the most predictable things in the NBA, and Bridges has gone over 41 minutes in four of his last five games (45 last night).
Jalen Duren, DET - C ($6,100)
I'm vacillating on whether or not Jalen Duren qualifies as a cash value or a mere high-upside GPP option. The business of him not being in the original starting lineup last night was fishy, and then he only logged 18 minutes which muddied the situation even more.
Let's talk about those 18 minutes, though. Duren double-doubled in a cake matchup and averaged 1.56 FPPM. If he can get into the mid-to-high 20s tonight, he should cook Vucevic and the Bulls underneath. Chicago ranks 27th in defensive efficiency and 19th in rebounding rate.
Malik Beasley, DET - SG ($5,100)
Tim Hardaway's questionable tag is relevant for this pick, but you have to wonder if Malik Beasley has done enough to take Hardaway's minutes anyway. Over the past four games, Beasley has averaged 16 shots per game and scored over 20 real points in all four.
Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey are the real usage monsters on this team, but Beasley has a healthy 21.1% mark with Hardaway off the court, and his price tag really isn't moving. Throw in a matchup against the Wizards and this could be one of the safest value plays of the night.
https://twitter.com/NBAFantasy/status/1858304906215518210
Others Under Consideration: OG Anunoby, NYK - SF/PF ($6,400), Jaden Ivey, DET - PG/SG ($6,400), Bub Carrington, WAS - PG/SG ($5,700), Miles McBride, NYK - PG/SG ($4,200), T.J. McConnell, IND - PG ($4,100), Nikola Jovic, MIA - PF ($3,700)
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Stack
Bulls at Pistons (O/U 233.5)
With blowout risk being a thing in the Knicks/Washington game, fully stacking the Bulls and Pistons seems like the best value move for GPPs. I mentioned a lot of the Pistons above, but there are several Bulls to come back with as well.
Detroit has sneakily played good defense this year and is second in rebounding rate, but they've also allowed the tenth most FPPG to opposing centers. Vucevic would be my first click as the CHI bringback as he has the easiest path to a double-double, but Zach LaVine and Coby White are fine at low ownership.
My Favorite NBA DFS Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite OVERALL play on the slate: Cade Cunningham
- My favorite CASH play on the slate: Cade Cunningham
- My favorite GPP play on the slate: Devin Booker
- My favorite VALUE play: Malik Beasley if Hardaway sits, Mikal Bridges if he doesn't
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