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Rob looks at four quarterbacks with appealing ADPs that fantasy managers should be targeting for the 2024 fantasy football redraft season.
Fantasy managers should always be on the look-out for a good deal. Sometimes, fantasy managers can get too caught in who they're drafting, that they forgot to examine the cost of acquisition. When it comes to our fantasy drafts, we only have so many draft picks. If you're in an auction draft, you only have so many money. Using our resources is crucial. A great player can be great and still a sell if they're overpriced. Price is so important.
In this second entry of this two-part series, we'll be identifying four additional quarterbacks that fantasy managers should be targeting this season. These four signal-callers can be found as early as round two and as late as round 13. There are good quarterbacks throughout the draft for whatever draft plan strategy you intend to implement.
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Jalen Hurts: QB2, ADP 26
Much has been made about Jason Kelce's retirement and how that might negatively affect the team’s trademark “tush-push” play, but fantasy managers shouldn’t be too worried about that. Kelce undoubtedly was a big part of the play’s success, but this is still one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. It’s still going to be part of their offense. It was too effective for it not to be.
From 1990-2023, five quarterbacks have had 150 or more rush attempts in a season. They’ve finished as the QB1, QB1, QB2, QB5, and QB7 in PPG averages. Since 1990, there have been nine quarterbacks with 125-149 rush attempts in a season. They’ve finished as the QB1, QB1, QB3, QB3, QB5, QB5, QB7, QB8, and QB23. QB23.
The lone outlier here belongs to Cam Newton’s 2020 season with the New England Patriots. That year, he threw 368 passes and just eight touchdowns. Everyone else, though, finished in the top eight. Since 1990, there have been 21 quarterbacks to finish with 700 or more rushing yards. Their fantasy finishes have ranged from QB1 to QB11. Fifteen have finished in the top five, ten have finished in the top three, and five have finished as “the” QB1.
rushing TDs from the 1-yard line since 2021
22 - QB Jalen Hurts
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14 - RB Jamaal Williams
13
12 - RB Joe Mixon
11 - RB Derrick Henry, RB Ezekiel Elliott
10 - RB James Conner, RB Josh Jacobs
9 - RB Gus Edwards
8 - RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Austin Ekeler, RB…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 7, 2024
In 2021, Hurts had 139 carries and 784 yards. The following season, he had 165 carries and 760 yards; this past year, he finished with 157 carries and 605 yards. Running quarterbacks is a cheat code for fantasy football, and Hurts has proven to be one of the best. Even in 2021, before the tush-push, Hurts still finished with ten rushing touchdowns compared to the 13 and 15 he scored the past two seasons, respectively. Sure, it might dip slightly, but 8-10 rushing touchdowns will still finish first or second at the position. We’re still talking about an elite-elite rusher.
Over the past three seasons, Hurts has averaged 45.7 rushing yards per game. Even if we project “just” seven rushing touchdowns, which would be the lowest of his career since becoming the full-time starter, Hurts would “still” have averaged 7.042 fantasy points per game on the ground alone. Lamar Jackson averaged 7.005 fantasy per game on the ground last season. Let’s not go too crazy about concerns about the tush-push slightly declining or massively affecting his fantasy value.
Hiring offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will undoubtedly bring some changes; for fantasy, they will likely be positive. From 2019-2022, as the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator, Dallas ran a play every 25.6 seconds, and their pass rate was 57.9% in neutral situations. As the Chargers’ offensive coordinator last season, Los Angeles ran a play every 25.8 seconds and had a 59.7% pass rate.
Last year, the Eagles ran a play every 27.1 seconds and had a pass rate of 53.6%. Based on that data, fantasy managers should anticipate a faster-paced offense in Philadelphia. That quicker tempo should increase the number of plays Philadelphia runs, which, for fantasy, is always a good thing. The increased passing rate could also lead to the best passing seasons of Hurts’ career.
Jalen Hurts in Round 4 is silly. Was a top-6 QB in 11 weeks last year despite chaos ensuing.
I'm expecting these dropoffs to get fixed. pic.twitter.com/oXMACpo04n
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) June 28, 2024
In Moore’s five seasons as an offensive coordinator, his offenses have finished 10th, second, sixth, 19th, and third in pass attempts. It’s important to remember that his starting quarterback has missed 21 games through those five seasons. Despite this, as a team, Moore’s offenses have finished second, eighth, second, 14th, and 13th in passing yards. The highest Philly has finished in pass attempts since Hurts became the starter was 21st.
Last year, Philadelphia used pre-snap motion at the lowest rate in the NFL, compared to the Chargers, who had the second highest. Dallas was also above the league-average rate in pre-snap motion. Implementing that element into Philly’s offense will help give Hurts some easier throws and help prevent the offense from stagnating like it did late last season. Hurts has yet to have 550 pass attempts in a season, 4,000 yards, or 25 passing touchdowns. However, fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised if Hurts accomplishes all three this year.
Hurts belongs in the top-three conversation at quarterback. With the potential increase in his passing statistics and Josh Allen losing Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, Hurts has a good chance to finish this season as the No. 1 overall scoring quarterback. Patrick Mahomes will have something to say, but Hurts belongs in that conversation. He’s been an elite runner and an average passer the past two seasons, but we could see him become an above-average passer, and as long as he maintains that elite rusher status, which he should, Hurts’ ceiling is just as high as it’s been. Maybe even higher…
Dak Prescott: QB9, ADP 60
Prescott is the future Kirk Cousins. What does that mean? Last year, Cousins was the QB6 with a 19.3 PPG. He finished tied for QB12 in 2022 (18.3 PPG), QB12 in 2021 (19.0), QB12 in 2020 (19.0), QB17 in 2019 (16.7 PPG), QB14 in 2018 (18.1 PPG), QB8 in 2017 (18.0 PPG), QB6 in 2016 (19.3 PPG), and tied for QB12 in 2015 (18.3 PPG). In nine seasons as a starter, he’s finished as the QB12 or better in seven seasons. He has three finishes inside the top-10. More recently, he’s finished as a top-12 quarterback in four consecutive seasons.
Despite this, Cousins rarely gets the fantasy football respect he deserves. Prescott often falls victim to this, as well. The same applies to Cousins' standing regarding real-life, on-the-field quarterbacking. Prescott is not immune to the identical harsh judgment Cousins has found due to the all-important "QuArTeRbAcK wInS" stat.
Since 2019, Prescott has started 66 games. His per-game stats across those 66 contests over 17 games would equal 4,787 yards and 35 touchdowns. Since 2019, Prescott is second in passing yards per game. Only Patrick Mahomes has averaged more. Since that same time, Prescott is third in passing touchdowns per game among active quarterbacks, behind only Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Prescott is fourth in completion percentage since 2019 among active quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts behind Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow, and Jimmy Garoppolo. He's eighth in yards per pass attempt using the same sample and fifth in quarterback rating behind Purdy, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Cousins. Pretty, pretty good, eh?
Prescott finished as the QB3 in 2019 with a 21.8 PPG average. He only played 4.5 games in 2020, but that didn't stop him from averaging 27.7 PPG and finishing as the QB1. In 2021, he finished as the QB11 with a 19.9 PPG average, QB9 in 2022 (18.5 PPG), and QB4 in 2023 (20.4 PPG). He's been outstanding, both from a fantasy football and real-life football standpoint. Courtesy of RotoViz, you can see what Prescott has been up to every week since 2019. He's been a QB1 60% of the time, and it's not just being a top-12 quarterback. As you can see below, Prescott has plenty of high-scoring games, with 18 games with over 30+ points, including three over 40+.
Since 2019, Prescott has had three seasons with a pass attempt per game average of over 37. Since then, Prescott has ranked fourth in pass attempts per game with a 36.3 average. Last season, Prescott was ninth in pass attempts per game at 34.7 among quarterbacks with at least seven starts. Based on their offseason moves, it's likely that Prescott will throw the ball even more in 2024 than he did last year. Dallas watched Tony Pollard leave in free agency, and the only thing they did to replace him was bring back Ezekiel Elliott. The starting running backs are currently slated to be Zeke and Rico Dowdle. Given that Dallas has the worst running back depth chart in the NFL, we could see Dallas become even more pass-heavy in 2024. We started to see that last season already.
From Weeks 1-6, Dallas' pass rate was 57.9%, ranked 27th. They had their Week 7 bye and operated an utterly different offense the rest of the season. From Week 8 until their playoff loss, the Cowboys' pass rate rose to 67%. What did that look like for Prescott? In Weeks 1-6, he averaged 31.7 pass attempts and 222.2 passing yards per game. Over the final 12 games of their season, Prescott averaged 38.3 pass attempts and 298.8 passing yards per game. His passing touchdown per game average increased from 1.5 in Weeks 1-6 to 2.75 for the remainder of the season. If we extrapolate his final 12 games, Prescott would have finished with 5,080 yards and 47 touchdowns. How did all of that translate to fantasy football? From Weeks 7-17, Prescott averaged 23.8 PPG and was the QB2 during that stretch.
Based on Dallas' offensive structure, the Cowboys' offense is likely to resemble the one we saw in the second half of last season. That should be music to every fantasy manager's ears. Since Prescott does not use his legs like other elite fantasy quarterbacks, to compensate, Prescott needs elite passing volume. He should have that in waves this upcoming season. How often do we expect Dallas to hand the ball off to Dowdle and Elliott? This offense will flow very heavily through Prescott and the passing game. Since Prescott does not use his legs, it'll be challenging to match the upside Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts all possess. However, at QB9, those concerns are all but baked into his price. He's a good value this season.
Jayden Daniels: QB13, ADP 108
Daniels’ ADP reflects the quarterback position's strength but indicates that rushing success at the position is still undervalued. That seems hard to believe, considering just how good Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are for fantasy football, but it’s hard to explain how a guy like Jared Goff is being drafted ahead of Daniels.
Over his final 39 collegiate games, Daniels had 459 carries, 2,729 rushing yards, and 27 touchdowns. We’re talking about 153 carries, 910 yards, and nine touchdowns in 13 games. In his final two seasons at LSU, he had 321 carries, 2,019 yards, and 21 touchdowns. That amounts to 161 carries, 1,010 yards, and 10 touchdowns over 13 games. For context, Kyler Murray had 140 carries, 1,001 yards, and 12 rushing touchdowns in his final season at Oklahoma in 14 games, so Daniels is in some excellent company.
Comparing the rushing potential for Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye to recent Round 1/2 QBs:
- Designed rush rate dropped from college to pros for everyone but Lamar. CFB scramble rate seems to be the more important metric.
- No QB had a higher scramble% than Daniels. pic.twitter.com/forfY4ycjy— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 1, 2024
From 1990-2023, five quarterbacks have had 150 or more rush attempts in a season. They’ve finished as the QB1, QB1, QB2, QB5, and QB7 in PPG averages. Since 1990, there have been nine quarterbacks with 125-149 rush attempts in a season. They’ve finished as the QB1, QB1, QB3, QB3, QB5, QB5, QB7, QB8, and QB23. QB23, the lone outlier here, belongs to Cam Newton’s 2020 season with the New England Patriots. That year, he threw 368 passes and just eight touchdowns. Everyone else, though, finished in the top eight. Since 1990, there have been 21 quarterbacks to finish with 700 or more rushing yards. Their fantasy finishes have ranged from QB1 to QB11. Fifteen have finished in the top five, 10 have finished in the top three, and five have finished as “the” QB1.
Running the football as a quarterback is a cheat code for fantasy football. Daniels has proven he can do it, and he does it at a high level. As you've just learned, the history of running quarterbacks is incredibly impressive for fantasy football. Daniels doesn’t need to be a great passer. He doesn’t. Justin Fields finished with 2,241 passing yards and 17 touchdowns in 2022. Awful numbers. Truly awful. He still finished as the QB5 with a 20.5 PPG average. Why? Because he could run the ball!
In 2019, Kyler Murray finished his rookie season with 3,722 passing yards and 20 touchdowns. He also had 93 carries, 544 rushing yards, and four touchdowns. Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals head coach from that year, is now Daniels’ offensive coordinator. Murray finished as the QB12 that season with an 18.8 PPG average.
This fact won’t help Daniels win games as a rookie, but it’ll undoubtedly help for fantasy. The Washington defense ranked 32nd in points allowed and 32nd in yards given up. It’s unlikely it’ll be last in both categories again in 2024, but it won’t be good, that’s for sure. That’ll put Daniels and the Washington offense in a position where they’re chasing points. There will be plenty of garbage points.
On top of their defense putting them in a position to play fast, Kingsbury’s offenses have also been fast-paced as it is. Daniels should get plenty of opportunities to throw the ball, and a below-average offensive line could have him running quite a bit. Not the formula for winning NFL games, but it sure will work for fantasy football.
Given Daniels’ ability to run the football, his current positional ADP becomes such a smash for fantasy managers looking to wait on a quarterback. Given the depth of the position, those who draft Daniels as their QB1 can still target quality high-volume pocket passers such as Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, or Matthew Stafford later in the draft. Daniels is a buy all day long at his current cost.
Deshaun Watson: QB23, ADP 156
Last year, Watson played five games where he played more than 20% of the snaps. In those five games, he averaged 18.3 PPG. He had finishes of QB5, QB10, QB8, and QB14. He finished as a top-10 quarterback in 60% of his starts where he played the majority of the snaps. Last year, an 18.3 PPG average would have resulted in a QB14 finish.
In 2022, if we eliminate the very first game he played after a year and a half absence, Watson averaged 16.8 PPG in his five games last season. This would have been QB20 last year. Over his last 10 starts with Cleveland, he has averaged 17.6 PPG. This would have been QB15 last year, tied with Jared Goff, who is going as the QB12 in draft’s right now.
In his final five starts with Cleveland in 2022, he had weekly finishes of QB14, QB8, and QB6. During his last 10 starts, with at least a 20% snap share, he’s finished as a top-10 quarterback 50% of the time. Over his last two seasons with Detroit, Goff has finished as a top-12 quarterback 39% of the time.
Over his last 10 starts, Watson has recorded 55 rushing attempts and 296 rushing yards. This works out to 94 rushing attempts and 503 rushing yards. If he scores three rushing scores, that’s an extra 4.0 PPG via rushing stats. If he scores four rushing touchdowns, that’s an extra 4.37 PPG.
He’s struggled as a passer in those 10 contests, completing just 60.8% of his passes for 2,081 yards and 14 touchdowns. Those numbers put him on pace for 3,538 yards and 24 touchdowns. He also was on pace for 12 interceptions. Those passing numbers certainly leave a bit to be desired, but he still continues to be one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league.
For fantasy football, this creates weekly upside and a large margin of error. His passing numbers at face value are disappointing, but remember his rushing PPG? That’s where that becomes so important. Adding 4.0-4.5 PPG via rushing alone gives him a safe floor and an exciting ceiling.
The Browns hired former Bills’ offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey. He should help create a more up-tempo offense in Cleveland, as well as increasing the neutral pass-rate. This is something we should expect anyways based on the injury of Nick Chubb. Without him in the lineup, look for Cleveland to lean on the passing game more than we’ve been accustomed in year’s past.
On top of that, Watson has some really good pass-catching weapons. Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku is a good group of weapons outside. He won’t be asked to do the heavy lifting. Cooper is an underrated No. 1 option. Njoku is an athletic mismatch at tight end. Jeudy and Moore are quality role players as the third and fourth options.
When you get down into round 13 and 14 of your draft, you should be looking for upside and Watson has it. Of the quarterbacks being drafted after QB18, Watson has the best chance of a top-12 finish. He’s such an easy busy at his current cost.
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