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Potential wide receiver sleepers and values for 2024 fantasy football drafts. Dave Ventresca details potential sleepers and values at the wide receiver position.
Wide receivers are in high demand in 2024 fantasy football drafts. They are coming off draft boards early and often. With the NFL moving away from traditional bell-cow running backs, it’s easy to see why fantasy players are gravitating toward receivers.
Even with so many pass-catchers being taken early in drafts, there are still values and sleepers to find at the position. Identifying a few can give you some much-needed flexibility when navigating the early rounds of drafts. Today, we are going to examine undervalued/sleeper wide receivers using FFPC ADP (average draft position) data.
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Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
FFPC ADP: 86.43 Overall, WR37
Johnson has always been a target hog and remains one of the game’s most underrated route runners.
Touchdown Diontae Johnson!! #Steelers #NFL pic.twitter.com/AFYJ9Y5tR3
— Blitzburgh (@Blitz_Burgh) January 6, 2024
It’s been a tough few years for him since he finished as the PPR WR8 in 2021. Johnson now gets a fresh start in Carolina and slides in as Bryce Young’s WR1. Based on Young’s play as a rookie, it’s fair to wonder if this situation is that much of an improvement compared to what Johnson had in Pittsburgh.
However, new Panthers head coach Dave Canales brings hope that he can fix the issues that plagued Young as a rookie. Canales crafted offenses that helped guide Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield to career seasons. He could very well do the same for Young. If that happens, Johnson would be the main beneficiary.
Entering the season as the team’s clear-cut WR1, Johnson should once again soak up targets. With an FFPC price tag of WR37, he is still being drafted closer to his floor rather than his ceiling. If Young makes strides in Year 2, then we will look back on Johnson’s preseason ADP and laugh to the bank. He makes for a fantastic pick as a WR3 or flex play, particularly in full-PPR leagues.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
FFPC ADP: 86.87 Overall, WR38
Rice’s place on this list is tentative pending any possible suspension. As of now, he has yet to be disciplined by the league following his arrest back in April. His trial is reportedly set to begin in December, and it’s possible the league won’t take action until the 2025 season. Seeing as that we’re already into August and nothing has happened, that may very well be the case. If so, then Rice is arguably the biggest value currently available in drafts.
Pat Mahomes connects with Rashee Rice for a 39-yard touchdown! ⚡
(via NFL, CBS)pic.twitter.com/9rdoGqcgTM
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) November 26, 2023
His analytical profile as a rookie was very strong. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Rice checked in with a 28% targets per route run rate and a 2.62 yards per route run rate. These are two metrics that highly correlate to fantasy success and bode well for Rice’s outlook. The Chiefs did add Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy to the wide receiver room. Both pose a threat for targets. However, both players were added as speed elements to try and blow the top off the defense. Neither one operates out of the same role that Rice excelled in as a rookie.
With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, the Chiefs see two high safety looks at one of the highest rates in the league. It’s unlikely defenses change this approach, and that means Rice’s underneath role isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. He can still be a PPR cheat code.
Bottom line -- as long as Rice isn’t suspended and stays on the field, he’s going to return a profit at this ADP. He's arguably the team’s best receiver and a second-year breakout is likely.
Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Bills
FFPC ADP: 125.87 Overall, WR51
Samuel arrives in Buffalo after signing a three-year, $24 million contract in free agency. The Bills are hoping he can help fill the void left after Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis departed this offseason. Samuel has always been a versatile player and can be used in a variety of ways.
Curtis Samuel is a needle moving signing for me.
•Explosive speed •Yards after the catch demon
•Versatile rushing ability
•Reliable handsGo *and I cannot stress this enough* Bills pic.twitter.com/SIqf3pYp57
— MereKat (@MereKatKat) March 14, 2024
Samuel also has experience in offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s system from their days with the Carolina Panthers. He had his best season as a professional in Brady’s system during the 2020 season. A WR51 price tag is not a bad deal for Josh Allen’s potential WR1. Expect him to be a major cog in this offense.
Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints
FFPC ADP: 143.67 Overall, WR58
The Saints need another receiving threat behind star receiver Chris Olave. Shaheed quietly made improvements during his sophomore season. The big-play specialist posted career highs in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns in 2023.
RASHID SHAHEED 45 YARD TOUCHDOWN
pic.twitter.com/jnCfj563oE— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 22, 2023
He will need to further develop his route running to become more than a boom-or-bust player. If he continues developing, he can become a strong WR3 or flex option for players in deeper leagues. Shaheed has an FFPC ADP of 143rd overall, so he should be relatively cheap in drafts. He is a sneaky third-year breakout candidate and is a perfect low-risk/high-reward target in drafts.
Ja’Lynn Polk, New England Patriots
FFPC ADP: 184.23 Overall, WR69
New England had been looking to make a significant investment in the wide receiver position all offseason. After losing out on Calvin Ridley in free agency, it turned around and spent the 37th overall pick on Polk in the NFL Draft. He enjoyed a nice senior year at the University of Washington. He totaled over 1,100 receiving yards and scored nine touchdowns in the air. His underlying data was also strong as he touted a solid 2.42 YPRR in 2023, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). He's likely to have a large role right away.
This is a team in desperate need of pass-catchers. There’s a clear opening for someone to emerge as the Patriots’ WR1. Polk has talent and draft capital in his corner. He can be a solid WR3 or flex option in PPR leagues. Polk is going outside the top 180 picks in FFPC drafts. At that price, why not take a chance on him? If he doesn’t work out, just kick him back to waivers.
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