2024 Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers List (QB, RB, WR, TE)

August 26, 2024

Nick Mariano's 2024 fantasy football draft sleepers and ADP values. NFL draft value picks at RB, WR, TE, and QB to target in the later rounds of your drafts.

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Sleeper remains a mythical word that can mean 10 different things to 10 different people. We each need to define it, as a "sleeper" to a 10-team drafter will be obvious to someone prepping for a 14-teamer. I'll try to dig beyond the top-12 QB/TE choices, as well as the top 36 or so for RBs and WRs.

For me, the term sleeper means a mid-to-late round pick who could be an excellent value where they are currently being drafted. In this article, I will highlight two or three of my favorite sleepers at traditional positions. Those of you seeking kicker or defense sleepers, feel free to try me on Twitter but you need to take a deep breath and worry about these positions on draft day. I'd advocate you avoid drafting K or DEF and use the extra bench slots on late-round fliers, anyway. All ADP data used for this article is from aggregate ADP data for half-PPR drafts.

Quarterback Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers

Jayden Daniels (WAS), QB12

Washington was a bit of a fantasy wasteland in 2024. Sam Howell flopped, leading the NFL with 21 interceptions alongside 21 touchdowns despite the most pass attempts (619). The volume spoke to their poor defense and overall ineffectiveness. The Eric Bieniemy magic did not transfer from Kansas City, though Terry McLaurin did eke over the 1,000-yard mark for us (while Jahan Dotson disappeared for games at a time).

But hope springs eternal for the receivers thanks to the Heisman-winning first-round pick, Jayden Daniels, who just threw 40 touchdowns as a senior at LSU. Oh, and he ran for 1,134 yards and 10 scores. After putting up a 186-885-11 rushing line as a junior.

Jayden Daniels is basically a free lottery ticket with fantastic historical odds.

First round QBs that started and had 75+ rushing attempts in their rookie season since 2000:

Vince Young (QB9)
Cam Newton (QB3)
Robert Griffin III (QB5)
Josh Allen (QB21)
Kyler Murray (QB7)

Josh…

— Chris O'Brien (@17gamepace) May 31, 2024

One recognizes that Washington has plenty to prove as an organization, but Daniels is an easy top-12 fantasy talent. Speculating on this in any 1QB format where one can fall back in a robust streaming pool is worth the shot, especially if his smaller stature gives you injury-risk fears. PFF also gave him an elite 99.2 Deep Throw grade, so let’s see if that offensive line can keep him clean as he adjusts to life in the NFL.

*His average ADP has already moved from QB17 to QB12 as of mid-August but there's still room for profit here. Going as the theoretical last starter in a 12-team league is not befitting a man of this fantasy skill set.

Deshaun Watson (CLE), QB21

Watson’s 2023 season was largely ruined due to right shoulder injuries that led to season-ending surgery after Week 12. His per-game stats are juked by the abbreviated Week 7 game with only five pass attempts, and he also slogged through a horrible day at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Typically we get an entire season to iron these things out, but a sample size of five effective games won’t cut it.

Did you know that Watson put up weekly top-10 performances in three of the five full games played last year? And mustering a QB14 finish at Baltimore in his final game, almost surely playing through the shoulder fracture, is also notable. His golden years of rushing performance are behind him but he was on pace for ~80 rushes in ‘23 and sneaking in 350-400 rush yards is always welcome.

The Browns will need him early on as Nick Chubb works back from his serious knee injury, with the addition of Jerry Jeudy helping the cause. Jeudy joins Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku as a quietly stout core. And Jerome Ford proved a capable receiver from the backfield as well. The signal-caller continues to ramp up activity this offseason and remains a buy at this depressed price until a concrete medical reason dissuades me.

Will Levis (TEN), QB26

Levis had a tumultuous rookie season that ended with a 58.4% completion rate and just eight passing touchdowns across nine starts, though one was very abbreviated thanks to a high-ankle sprain. Still, the TD tally hurts more considering his four-score debut in Week 7 that supplied half of his total. But the Titans were a run-oriented team thanks to Derrick Henry and that is no longer the case.

Tennessee signaled a shift in philosophy by allowing Henry to walk while bringing in Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. They join DeAndre Hopkins as a fearsome trio that greatly improves Levis’ ceiling. Consider how in a limited sample Levis’ throws over 20 yards had his best PFF grade (79.7). And now he gets Ridley downfield instead of Treylon Burks?

Please remember he’s had one half-season of NFL experience and an improvement in the short/intermediate game isn’t farfetched, especially given the personnel upgrades. Both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are more than capable out of the backfield as well. We simply don't know how much this young QB grew in the offseason with plenty of potential in the air.

“Levis changed things with his base, tweaking his footwork. He's trying to get the ball out better, and cleaner, with improved technique.

He's getting on the same page with his new receivers.

In the six practices open to media, Levis was charted at completing 37 of his 57… https://t.co/w3nfnOIuab

— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) June 21, 2024

Running Back Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers

Bucky Irving (TB), RB57

Irving went to the Bucs in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft after a disappointing NFL Combine. The poor scouting grade was rooted in underwhelming vertical and broad jump metrics, but hope springs eternal through his college career and how his versatility fits with Tampa, who was seeking help at RB.

#Buccaneers HC Todd Bowles says that they will bring in another RB this offseason to take the load off of Rachaad White and transition into a more of a RBBC next season.

White was a mostly an inefficient runner this past season at 3.6 YPC but did have some big games. pic.twitter.com/4p4tlnr6B9

— NFL Notifications (@NFLNotify) February 27, 2024

The RB cleared 1,000 rushing yards in each of his Oregon years and hauled in 56 passes last season, which echoes TB’s usage of Rachaad White. The starter has notched 50 or more receptions in back-to-back seasons, but his rushing results are lackluster. He’s yet to average over 3.7 yards per carry in a year, which is partly the offensive line’s fault, but it cracks the door open for Irving.

The rookie averaged more than six yards per carry in his last two college seasons. One can’t simply take that and transpose it to an NFL outlook, especially coming from Oregon, but we know he has burst and vision. Can his blend of power and elusiveness earn the No. 2 role above Chase Edmonds and start whittling away at White’s workload if inefficiency continues?

#Bucs OC Liam Coen on Bucky Irving and Rachaad White:

Irving — “The nice thing I like about Bucky is he gets to his top speeds early. Like, when he accepts the handoff, he bursts and accelerates through the hole and can make people miss in space.”

White — “He has taken every… pic.twitter.com/LlS6eZBcWp

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 6, 2024

Braelon Allen (NYJ), RB60

Allen was selected by the New York Jets in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft after three straight seasons of double-digit rushing touchdowns at Wisconsin. Running back was the one thing that went right for the 2023 Jets offense as Breece Hall broke out after proving 100% following a torn ACL.

But the entire offense does seem undervalued as Aaron Rodgers prepares to lead them after tearing his Achilles on 2023’s opening drive. A carousel of subpar QB play tanked this team’s season and Dalvin Cook was ineffective as RB2, which helped Hall maintain a high workload. But Allen is generating buzz at early practices, leapfrogging Israel Abanikanda as the change-of-pace RB2.

It’s worth pointing out that Allen had 5.9 yards per collegiate carry and could help NYJ ease up on Hall since they’ll have postseason aspirations. If you need to simply think of him as a great handcuff then so be it, we can’t ignore Hall recently had a major injury. And this team has so many elite pieces where stable QB play could provide many more positive gamescripts that lean on the run than most drafters are prepared for.

Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers

Jermaine Burton (CIN), WR75

Burton has a great chance at winning a valuable slot role on a Joe Burrow-led offense that didn’t need Tee Higgins to walk away for profits at this price point. It seems that Burrow’s injury-affected 2023 season and Tyler Boyd’s down year have many underestimating the potential WR3 value.

Burton was in the top 10% against single coverage with zero drops per PFF and good luck getting any semblance of a double on him with Ja'Marr Chase and Higgins on the outside. Neither Mike Gesicki nor Erick All are likely to dominate in 2024. While Chase Brown has some receiving chops, Zack Moss has 75 catches in 53 career games. To expect a step down in RB receiving production from Joe Mixon is reasonable.

This season could look like the 2021 campaign where a healthy Burrow supported a trio of top-36 WRs on a per-game basis. Cincy’s third-round investment may have partly been Higgins insurance but he should carve out standalone value while also being a Chase/Higgins injury away from top-24 potential. This is a cheap way to stack with Burrow and get exposure to CIN upside. This could either go extremely right or moderately solid.

Working my way through the Cincinnati Bengals Projections

Folks if TDs bounce the right way Jermaine Burton is criminally undervalued

If they bounce the wrong way, he’s just undervalued

Look at him flip the defenders hips with an inside threat then separate late in the play pic.twitter.com/t2JSTUqrcA

— FF Mike Kash (@FFMikeKash) June 13, 2024

*Update: It appears Andrei Iosivas may have the inside track on the No. 3 starting role. This writer is still banking on Burton's talent eclipsing Iosivas rather early in the season and the price is still a healthy buy with the respective upside/downside.

Javon Baker (NE), WR81

There are very few sure things about the New England offense going into 2024, and most of those pertain to the ground game. Will we see Drake Maye win the quarterbacking job? Is the line any better at buying time? And outside of Demario Douglas as a reliable slot man, can Baker and Ja'Lynn Polk earn consistent roles on the perimeter or will they give K.J. Osborn meaningful snaps throughout the seasons? There’s a chance for early momentum as Kendrick Bourne recovers from a torn ACL.

Polk is (rightfully) drawing some steam with his summer ADP climbing into the 12th round on Underdog drafts. But this is a Patriots team whose leader in receptions was Ezekiel Elliott with 51 last season. Demario Douglas impressed where JuJu Smith-Schuster had failed in the middle of the field, gaining 561 yards on 49 catches but scoring zero times. Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe were overwhelmed. Maye or Jacoby Brissett will represent an upgrade.

Baker spent two years as a backup at Alabama before transferring to UCF and having a pair of solid campaigns, headlined by 1,139 yards on 52 catches as a senior. Averaging over 20 yards per catch speaks to a sprinter, but the 6-foot-1 Baker also does a good job timing the ball in contested spots. If NE isn’t good at generating healthy passing volume then their best player may be the one who can make the most out of limited chances with a big-play burst.

Tight End Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers

Jonnu Smith (MIA), TE26

Just as we discussed Burton’s role in Cincinnati being undervalued due to past performances in the role, so too is Smith’s potential as Miami’s receiving TE. This is a player who managed to produce highlights in 2023 despite being buried on an Arthur Smith offense in a TE room with Kyle Pitts. The one that sticks out is a 60-yard touchdown that was entirely Smith’s afterburners taking a bubble screen to the house.

This is a guy who can outrun defensive backs in pursuit and who now joins a Mike McDaniel offense that knows how to scheme players into space. We’ve seen the flashes as recently as last year but there’s a buying opportunity here. Not only did Arthur Smith suppress all ceilings, but the Dolphins didn’t have a notable TE last season.

Smith enters an exciting Miami offense having just posted career-high marks in catches (50), targets (70), and yards (582) on a run-oriented Atlanta offense. He boasted a 71.4% catch rate despite playing with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, topping 60 yards in four games.

Perhaps those in PPR leagues won’t love the spot with Miami being so hyperefficient at chasing big plays rather than cobbling together via volume. But we’ve seen enough out of Smith to see potential and enough out of McDaniel’s Dolphins to respect their ability to match a player to their scheme.

#Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel on Miami’s use of tight ends:

“Some people think that just ‘whatever it was, it will always be’… There’s opportunities there, for sure.”

McDaniel on Jonnu Smith:

“He has become a master of YAC — not only because of speed, but because of a mindset” pic.twitter.com/o1l4yHEuf9

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 4, 2024

Theo Johnson (NYG), TE32

Johnson steps into an open Giants TE room following Darren Waller’s retirement. The rookie has little by way of existing competition, primarily in Daniel Bellinger. While this franchise has turned middling TEs like Kevin Boss into cult heroes, Bellinger is unlikely to make the leap with 55 catches and two TDs over 29 career games.

The 6-foot-6 Johnson was taken out of Penn State in the fourth round rocking an estimated 87 Athleticism Score per NFL NextGen Stats, ranking second among TEs in the class. He has to prove he can leverage his size and speed to be a dynamic player and adequate run-blocker earning reps, but the opportunity cost is low. The potential volume, albeit on a mediocre passing offense, is high. If attention overcorrects towards Malik Nabers by the red zone then Johnson could quietly fall into 6-8 TDs.

*Update: Johnson's ADP was TE42 when this was originally published and has already crept up to TE32. That's still easily in the final rounds for most of your drafts -- most likely still undrafted territory. Reports have him already edging Bellinger for starting reps, especially routes, so we're happy here.

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