Do NOT Draft Josh Jacobs for Fantasy Football (2024)

June 5, 2024

Rob takes an in-depth look at the Packers' backfield, Matt LaFleur's running back history, and the reasons you should be avoiding Josh Jacobs at his current ADP for the 2024 fantasy football season.

Every offseason, fantasy managers tend to get carried away, positively and negatively, on a handful of players. Their ADPs skyrocket or plummet way more than they should. Oftentimes, when this happens, one overarching narrative quiets out everything else. For these two extremes to occur, many individuals ignore previously known facts. This article will dispel and throw a whole bunch of cold water on Josh Jacobs’ ADP. To be clear, this isn’t a Josh Jacobs is no good and should not be drafted under circumstances opinion. It’s simply saying his price is too high. Fantasy football is all about cost and value.

The minute he signed with the Packers, his ADP skyrocketed, and to some extent, this made a ton of sense. Simply put, the Raiders were bad last season, and the Packers were good. Plain and simple, and for a running back, that matters so much. However, we seem to be ignoring a few obvious facts, which we’ll touch on throughout the article.

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Josh Jacobs’ ADP and Wild Offseason

Jacobs is currently being drafted as the RB9 on Underdog and RB10 on Yahoo! When he signed in Green Bay, fantasy managers were pretty lukewarm about the whole thing. After all, Aaron Jones was still in Green Bay at that time. The dreaded running back by committee approach was very, very loud. However, if you’ve followed Matt LaFleur’s coaching career, the running back by committee approach is a staple of his.

Anyways, Jones was eventually released, and Jacobs’ ADP skyrocketed. The Packers would eventually bring back A.J. Dillon, a player who had been a thorn in Jones’ side for the past three seasons, and then added MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the NFL Draft. Despite those additions, Jacobs’ ADP has stayed steady inside the top 10. It’s been almost as if Green Bay didn’t make any additions to the backfield whatsoever. For running backs in the NFL, the third round is the new second round because no one drafts running backs in the first anymore, so when the Packers used a third-rounder on Lloyd, that’s considerable draft capital being spent.

But Josh Jacobs Will Be the Workhorse!

Only once has a Green Bay Packers running back finished inside the top 10 in half-PPR PPG since 2020, and that happened back in 2020. It’s not like the Packers didn’t have a good running back. You’d be completely honest if you said that from 2020-2023, Jones was way more talented and efficient than Jacobs. Don’t believe me? Check out the stats below.

Looking at that table from the last four years, where is Jacobs better than Jones? Despite Jones’ superior efficiency, Jones has not finished in the top 12 in touches among running backs in the past three seasons. The closest he came was in 2022 when he averaged 16 touches per game and finished with 272 touches, the 13th-most. Ironically enough, he was right behind former teammate Jamaal Williams.

In 2021, Jones averaged 14.9 touches per game; this past season, he averaged 15.6. Those numbers aren’t anything to turn your nose up to, but they typically don’t translate to top-10 fantasy seasons. So, if LaFleur was unwilling to make Jones a workhorse, who from 2019-2022 had been one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL, why would he be willing to make Jacobs one when Jacobs has been far less efficient than Jones?

Since fantasy managers often have short-term memory, many will say, “Because Jones is always hurt!” or something to that effect. Again, short-term memory. From 2019-2022, Jones played in 62 games. Jacobs played in 60. From 2019-2023, Jones played in 73 games. Jacobs, 73. Jones played all 16 games in 2019. He missed just two games in 2021, one being Week 18, and played all 17 games in 2022. That gives him two seasons where he’s played 100% of the games. Jacobs has just one. Since 2019, Jones has missed three games or more, just once. Jacobs has done so twice. Safe to say, I think we can throw the injury reasoning out.

Matt LaFleur believes in the running back by committee approach. He always has, for better or for worse. This is the same guy who, in 2018, as the Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator, gave Derrick Henry 230 touches. Only 230 touches! Dion Lewis – remember him? – he had 214 touches. That season, Lewis played 60.8% of the offensive snaps, and Henry, in his third season no less, played just 40.6%.

Okay, But Think of the Touchdown Potential!

Yeah, I’ve thought about it. Have you? In 2020, the Packers finished first in points scored and fifth in yards. They were tied for 15th with 16 rushing touchdowns. In 2021, they had the 10th-most points scored and yards gained. They finished 21st in rushing touchdowns with 13. The following season, 2022, Green Bay finished 14th in points and 17th in yards. They were 22nd in rushing touchdowns with 12. This past season, they were 12th in total points and 11th in yards but finished 23rd in rushing touchdowns with only 10.

Over the past four seasons, the Packers RUNNING BACKS have scored just 36 rushing touchdowns. Jacobs, for his career, has not scored a single receiving touchdown. That’s nine per season. The most was in 2020, when they combined to score 13. We all know the Packers' offensive environment is far superior to that of Las Vegas. Still, when looking at the Packers' offensive depth, fantasy managers need to assume they'll lean on Jordan Love's arms way more than Jacobs' legs. With a cast of pass-catchers a mile long - Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft - fantasy managers are correct to be expecting plenty of touchdowns in 2024. The problem is they're likely to come via the passing game, which looks like one of the NFL's best, youngest, and deepest groups.

Fantasy managers would be unwise to expect Jacobs to handle all the goal-line work anyway. That's not to say that Jacobs will not be the primary ball carrier near the goal line because he absolutely will be. However, over the past three seasons, LaFleur has used Dillon a ton down there. It makes sense, given that Dillon is almost 250 pounds. They also have Lloyd, who is plenty big, clocking in at 220 pounds. We shouldn't expect either player to take a ton of red zone work away from Jacobs, but losing out on just two to four touchdowns could be devastating based on how few rushing scores the Packers' running backs have scored the past four seasons.

But Josh Jacobs Will Force LaFleur’s Hand!

Oh yeah? Are you sure about that? This shouldn’t surprise anyone, but Dillon has not been very good in the past few seasons, and it hasn’t positively impacted Jones’ touches. The reason is simple – LaFleur has a belief system (running back by committee) and is willing to stick with it. This is no different than Sean McVay and his belief system of having one workhorse back. Even if that workhorse back is Darrell Henderson Jr. It just doesn’t matter. This is what these coaches believe. We can argue about it, we can disagree with it, but what we can’t do is change it.

Packers RB snap share % under Matt LaFleur

2019: A. Jones (62%), J. Williams (41%)
2020: A. Jones (60%), J. Williams (46%), Dillon (14%)
2021: A. Jones (58%), Dillon (43%)
2022: A. Jones (58%), Dillon (49%)
2023: Dillon (51%), A. Jones (49%)

This is a MarShawn Lloyd tweet

— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) May 7, 2024

Below is the stat comparison between Jones, Dillon, and Jamaal Williams over the past four years. Like the above table between Jones and Jacobs, Jones has been far superior, but it hasn’t mattered. We haven’t seen Jones get the type of volume that his high level of play suggests he should have. If you expect LaFleur to suddenly operate differently than he has in the past six years, you will be disappointed.

As you can see, Jones has always been the best running back on the team. The similarity between Dillon and Jacobs’ effectiveness last season is remarkable and somewhat troubling. To put it bluntly, Jacobs was bad last season. This next part won't be pretty for any Jacobs' stans reading this, so brace yourself.

Josh Jacobs averaged 17.2 weighted* opportunities last year, and scored 13.9 actual PPG.

That -3.3 differential was the 4th-worst of any RB over the past decade (min. 15.0 weighted opps/game)

(*weighted for average fantasy points from targets/carries in and out of the red zone) https://t.co/vM3zd4p9wM

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 5, 2024

Josh Jacobs Is Coming Off His Worst Season Ever

Last year, only two other running backs—Tony Pollard and Alexander Mattison—had a worse differential in terms of their actual half-PPR points scored and their expected half-PPR points than Jacobs. The former Raider finished with a -43.3-point differential. That is terrible! What’s more troubling is that it came after a 393-touch season in 2022. Volume is a double-edged sword. We want it. We need it, but the more they get, the quicker the effectiveness and talent seem to wane.

In 2023, 42 running backs finished with more than 150 touches. Jacobs was 36th in yards per carry, 29th in rush success rate, 39th in yards after contact per attempt, and 33rd in broken tackle rate. Looking at his PlayerProfiler page, which uses a different set of qualifiers, Jacobs ranked just 50th in yards per touch, 48th in breakaway run rate, and 49th in yards created per touch. He scored just 0.63 fantasy points per opportunity, ranking 58th. Just how bad was he last year? Well, let me ask you how you feel about Ezekiel Elliott. Think about it.

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Josh Jacobs in the year 2023:

Yards per carry:
Zeke (3.5), Jacobs (3.5)

Yards after contact per carry:
Zeke (2.5), Jacobs (2.4)

Missed tackles forced per carry:
Zeke (0.13), Jacobs (0.12)

Explosive runs per carry:
Zeke (4.3%), Jacobs (3.9%)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 4, 2024

Since 2020, Jacobs has had just one season in which he averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry and two seasons in which his average was below 4.0. In 2022, Jacobs averaged 2.4 yards after contact per attempt. That was his only season since 2020 when he averaged more than 2.0 yards after contact per attempt. For fantasy, Jacobs has lived off of volume. Efficiency-wise, his 2022 season looks like a massive outlier.

Not only is he coming off his worst season as a pro (which isn’t ideal), but he’s also racked up over 1,500 touches in five seasons. Neither is ideal, and there are concerns about how both correlate to future fantasy production. Not only that, but historically, changing teams has also had a negative correlation to fantasy production. Jacobs currently has the trifecta going on.

What Should You Do Instead?

If you want a running back in this range, fantasy managers are better off drafting Rachaad White, Isiah Pacheco, or Derrick Henry. Specifically, Pacheco. He has no competition in his backfield, is on a high-powered offense, and expanded his role as a pass-catcher last season. Also, Pacheco is younger and was effective last year. Everything you like about Jacobs' situation exists in Pacheco's situation. The difference is that Pacheco won't be competing with a third-round rookie this season, and he wasn't awful last year. White wasn't effective as a runner, but his role in the passing game was extremely secure. Not only will Jacobs be competing for targets and playing time with Lloyd to some extent, but the Packers also have a plethora of other pass-catchers Love can look to before his running backs. In Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield doesn't have nearly as many options.

It's amazing these three running backs are going after Jacobs. Henry is replacing Gus Edwards in Baltimore this year. Edwards had 13 rushing touchdowns last year. Don't be surprised if Henry rattles off 15 scores and, like Pacheco, has zero competition in his backfield. The No. 2 running back in Baltimore is Justice Hill. He has 203 carries and 934 yards in four seasons, roughly 50 carries and 233 yards a season. He's irrelevant, and Derrick Henry is, well, Derrick Henry. I have no idea why fantasy managers are drafting Jacobs ahead of any of those three players.

Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, and Isiah Pacheco should all comfortably go ahead of Jacobs. After those 11, Jacobs could be considered, but even then, there's De'Von Achane, James Cook, D'Andre Swift, Joe Mixon, and Aaron Jones, the group of running backs that Jacobs should be grouped with this season.

If you don't want a running back, draft Jalen Hurts. He's also going behind Jacobs. With Josh Allen losing Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, he could be this year's No. 1 quarterback. The Eagles, meanwhile, hired Kellen Moore to be their offensive coordinator. Moore has run a much quicker tempo offense, which is sure to give Philly's offense more explosiveness and volume this season. The options are endless. The only thing you shouldn't do is draft Josh Jacobs in the third round of your fantasy drafts.

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