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Mike's fantasy baseball buys and sells for MLB players off to hot starts. He looks at potential fantasy baseball frauds for Week 7 of the 2024 season.
It hasn’t been pretty on the injury front in baseball. Not only have a lot of prominent starting pitchers gone down, but so have some top hitters. Most recently, both Mike Trout (knee) and Trea Turner (hamstring) landed on the injured list.
Finding help on the waiver wire isn’t always easy. While there are some players riding hot streaks to consider, they also could come crashing back to reality in short order.
Let’s dive into some Fantasy Frauds through the early part of the season and highlight why they likely won’t be able to continue their current level of success.
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Josh Rojas, Seattle Mariners
Rojas has never been much of a factor when it comes to fantasy baseball. While he did steal 23 bases for the Diamondbacks in 2022, he only hit nine home runs on his way to recording a .122 ISO. For his career, he has a .315 wOBA and a .121 ISO.
Rojas already has three home runs for the Mariners entering Monday, which is just one home run shy of the four that he hit over 105 games last season. Not only does he have a .227 ISO, but his wOBA is all the way up to .447. Helping his cause has been his .360 batting average.
Josh Rojas, again ... His second of the series, both to lead off the 1st inning -- and against his former team.
102.8 mph off the bat, 349 feet. pic.twitter.com/MqC2PHbEIq
— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) April 28, 2024
There are some encouraging supporting stats for Rojas. His 12.6 percent walk rate and 13.8 percent strikeout rate are on pace to be the best marks of his career. However, his 35.9 percent hard-hit rate is nothing to write home about. A lot of the boost in his batting average can be attributed to his .400 BABIP.
Considering that Rojas has never finished a season with a batting average higher than .269, it would be a stretch to expect him to hit .300, let alone maintain his .360 batting average. Add significant regression in that department to his limited power upside and Rojas isn’t someone who can provide value over the long haul.
Tyler Nevin, Oakland Athletics
Nevin has bounced around the majors. Since he made his debut in 2021, he has played on three different teams. He only appeared in 41 games for the Tigers last year and has never played in more than 58 games in the majors during a single season. Part of the reason why he has been unable to latch on with a team is likely his career .660 OPS.
As underwhelming as Nevin had been previously in his career, he has stepped up for the Athletics to bat .289 with a .807 OPS entering Monday. He has a .359 wOBA and a modest 20.6 percent strikeout rate. His four home runs also match his total from the last two seasons combined.
Tyler Nevin doubles the lead with a dinger 🙌 pic.twitter.com/PvdZbd7mp4
— A's on NBCS (@NBCSAthletics) May 1, 2024
Even with his hot start, Nevin only has a .156 ISO. He didn’t hit for a lot of power during his time in the minors and he has a career .225 batting average in the majors. The Athletics have been a pleasant surprise in the early going and Nevin has contributed to their success. However, his batting average is highly unlikely to hold up over the duration of the season.
Jon Singleton, Houston Astros
Once a highly regarded prospect, Singelton has never been able to live up to the hype. Just making it back to the majors last year was a significant accomplishment. He would finish with 105 total plate appearances, hitting a paltry .165 with a .099 ISO and a .244 wOBA.
After appearing in just two of the Astros’ first six games this season, Singleton has received regular playing time recently. He has taken advantage of his opportunity, batting .258 with a .177 ISO.
Given his track record, it would be a surprise if Singleton finished the season with a batting average over .250. He’s not making a ton of quality contact, generating a 38.8 percent hard-hit rate. That’s actually below his career mark of 40.3 percent. For fantasy managers who need help at first base or at corner infield, don’t be fooled by Singleton’s improved start. He’s not someone to roster outside of extremely deep formats.
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