Elly De La Cruz: Has His Fantasy Baseball Breakout Season Arrived?

April 17, 2024

Mike Barner looks at Elly De La Cruz's hot start and discusses if he can maintain it throughout the 2024 fantasy baseball season.

There was plenty of hype surrounding Elly De La Cruz as he made his way through the minors for the Reds. He appeared in 38 games at Triple-A last year before getting the call to the majors. He had dominated the level in his short time there, recording 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases.

It’s De La Cruz’s combination of speed and power that makes him so appealing in fantasy baseball. He is also still only 22 years old, so his upside is incredibly high.

Let’s dig into De La Cruz’s numbers to start the season and discuss what his outlook is moving forward.

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The Stats

When De La Cruz was called up to the majors last season, he flashed his power and speed with 13 home runs and 35 stolen bases over 98 games. It came with plenty of downside, though. He only hit .235 with a .305 wOBA. His wRC+ was just 84, while his ISO checked in at .175.

One of the reasons why De La Cruz hit for such a poor average was his inability to make contact. He had a 33.7 percent strikeout rate. Fastballs weren’t a problem, as he only had a 22.4 percent whiff rate on them. However, he had a 34.4 percent whiff rate on offspeed pitches and a 36.0 percent whiff rate on breaking balls.

De La Cruz has begun this season by recording four home runs and six stolen bases across his first 16 games. The biggest improvement in his stats is his .267 batting average and .388 wOBA. His wRC+ checks in at 136.

De La Cruz’s improved power hasn’t just come in terms of home runs. He already has four doubles, compared to the total of 15 doubles that he hit over his 98 games last year. Despite normally batting sixth in the Reds lineup, he has scored 15 runs.

Elly De La Cruz mashes 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/dYmRGMtScD

— MLB (@MLB) April 11, 2024

The question with De La Cruz is, can he maintain his current batting average and wOBA, or is this simply a hot start?

While he didn’t spend a ton of time in the minors, De La Cruz generally hit for a high average. He hit .305 with a .393 wOBA at Double-A in 2022 and .297 with a .436 wOBA at Triple-A last year.

Strikeouts are always going to be the concern with De La Cruz. Even with his hot start, he has a 33.3 percent strikeout rate this year. During that 2022 stint in Double-A, he had a 30.9 percent strikeout rate. At Triple-A in 2023, he had a 26.9 percent strikeout rate.

Areas of Improvement

What’s encouraging about the hot start that De La Cruz is off to this season is his quality of contact. Last season, he produced an 8.5 percent barrel rate and a 45.9 percent hard-hit rate. This year, he has a 15.8 percent barrel rate and a 50.0 percent hard-hit rate.

De La Cruz is also pulling the ball more this season. Last year, he had a 41.1 percent pull rate. This season, that number has climbed to 47.4 percent.

Conclusion

It would not be a surprise to see De La Cruz show significant improvement in his batting average this season, despite his continued high strikeout rate. He has a ton of speed, ranking in the 99th percentile in sprint speed. While he isn’t likely to bat anywhere near .300, an average somewhere between .250 and .260 could be in the cards.

Speed is always going to be there with De La Cruz. He had 35 steals in his limited time last season, so him stealing six bases through 16 games already is nothing surprising. It’s why he was drafted so high in leagues.

Will he be able to maintain his .300 ISO? Don’t bet on it. However, he did have a .247 ISO at Double-A and a .335 ISO at Triple-A. Expect him to provide more power than he did in the majors last year.

Where will De La Cruz’s final numbers end up? I say he finishes batting around .255 with a .340 wOBA. In terms of his counting stats, I could see him posting around 20 home runs and 45 stolen bases when all is said and done. For those who were lucky enough to draft him, enjoy the ride!

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