September Power Surgers - Home Run Risers for Fantasy Baseball Drafts (2024)

Casey Wilson identifies three fantasy baseball hitters who could be 2024 home run (HR) sleepers based on their power surge in September of last season.

Whether their team is in the playoff hunt or not, it's always essential for MLB players to finish the season on a solid note. Often, we see breakout performances in September that can lead to growth in spring training and carry out into the regular season. 

A strong September at the MLB level can lead to attentiveness to a specific mechanical adjustment or approach for hitters to work on for an entire offseason. Not to mention the confidence it brings out for a player, knowing they can produce at a high level on the biggest stage. Capitalizing on this in our research can put us ahead of the competition.

Today, we will look at three hitters who took a step forward in their power numbers in September -- hopefully providing us with value in our fantasy drafts that can lead to sustained success for a season.

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Juan Soto, New York Yankees

September stats: .340/.440/.711, 10 HR, 29 RBI

I wouldn't classify Juan Soto under the sleeper category, but I view him as a major breakout candidate heading into 2024. Like Ronald Acuna Jr. last season, Soto's ADP is toward the middle to end of the first round. He is the sixth or seventh outfielder coming off the board in some formats.

In this regard, I view him as a good value and believe he will finish scoring the second-most points at the position at the end of the season.

In September, Soto hit 10 of his 35 home runs. He was second in baseball behind Ronald Acuna Jr. in SLG with his .711 mark. He led baseball with a 204 wRC+ and was in the top 10 in hard-hit % during that span.

Soto will now play 81 games at Yankee Stadium and get out of the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park. He won't have to power balls through the heavy marine layer in San Diego.

I can confidently say Juan Soto is back and primed for a big 2024 season.

Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies

September stats: .350/.460/.631, 6 HR, 22 RBI

I would expect Jones to get steamed up in the preseason, but his current ADP has him as my top value on the board. He is currently getting drafted around pick 90. The award-winning ATC projections at RotoBaller have Jones as the 62nd-ranked player -- a near 30-place value.

Jones had a breakout campaign in Coors Field last season. He slashed .297/.389/.542, adding 20 SBs to his resume. He did this all in only 424 at-bats. ATC has his projection this year at .273/.363/.490, 25 HR, and 20 SB in 576 plate appearances.

Jones turned it on in September. His .631 SLG was in the top 10 during that span. He belted six home runs, five doubles, and three triples in the month, with 22 RBIs and 20 runs. He led baseball over the span with 20 BBs.

The former top-100 prospect for the Guardians went into an offseason as the centerpiece of the Rockies future, surely with a rising confidence level.

Hitting in the middle of the order and being on base at a high rate for a team that plays 81 games at Coors Field makes him my top target heading into 2024 drafts.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand , Cincinnati Reds

September stats: .304/.353/.633, 8 HR, 18 RBI

The Reds enter 2024 with high expectations surrounding their infield with their tandem of young stars Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain. Not to mention former Rookie of the Year Jonathan India and new signee Jeimer Candelario.

The forgotten breakout candidate on this infield is another second-year player in Christian Encarnacion-Strand. He is the front runner to be the Opening Day first baseman for the Reds, and he should receive everyday at-bats either in that role or as a DH.

In September, Encarnacion-Strand hit eight home runs in 79 at-bats. His .633 SLG was top-10 in the month. His 156 wRC+ and 18 RBI left him right outside the top 30. If we increased his at-bats to 100 with the same production, he would have been in the top five in every category talked about.

With the recent suspension of Noelvi Marte, its seems the 1B position is his to lose. I would not be surprised to see his ADP rise further as the season approaches and news comes out in spring training of him winning the Opening Day gig.

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