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Super Wild Card Weekend didn't deliver as many entertaining games as we would have liked. Only one game was decided by one possession, while the rest were pretty uncompetitive. Dallas and Philadelphia collapsed, Detroit won their first playoff game in 30 years, and C.J. Stroud carved up the Browns' defense.
Last week, I went four for seven on predictions. I took the Rams to upset the Lions, the Browns to take down the Texans, and the Cowboys to move on. While the Packers playing a competitive game against Dallas isn't surprising, to lose their first home game of the season with that much talent in a blowout is a total collapse.
Let's take another shot at perfection, picking every game left through Super Bowl LVIII. Who's winning their Divisional Round games this weekend?
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Divisional Round Predictions
#4 Houston Texans (10-7) at #1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
Stroud and Bobby Slowik picked apart the Browns' defense, and Joe Flacco threw back-to-back pick-sixes, leading to them reaching the Divisional Round despite having the number two pick in the past year's draft. Heading to Baltimore, it'll be another tough task against one of the league's best defenses, but this time on the road. Houston didn't do anything extraordinary on the ground against Cleveland, but they opted to change their methodology to get the ball out quickly and negate the pass rush.
Baltimore's pass rush should force the Texans into a similar game plan as last week, but I think they will fare better than the Browns because they can throw more complex coverages and blitz packages at the Texans. Lamar Jackson should be able to carve up the Houston defense without much issue, and the Texans will have to continue to stuff the run to have any chance. Ultimately, the Ravens will be too much for Houston.
#7 Green Bay Packers (9-8) at #1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Jordan Love and the Packers shocked the world and led another Cowboys' collapse in the Wild Card Round, as the combination of Love and Matt LaFleur seems to be firing on all cylinders. Aaron Jones is finally healthy and dominating again, and the Packers will be hard to stop if they can continue to create takeaways on defense. The 49ers are a totally different beast than the Cowboys, however, and the Packers will need similar turnover success to have a chance at an upset.
Dallas, similar to Cleveland, was done in by their inability to run anything other than their one-high coverage shells, along with their offensive turnovers. Slowik and LaFleur, both from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, saw an advantage in attacking those man/cover-three defenses and tore them apart. San Francisco can throw two-high looks at them defensively, which should give better results than the Niners saw. The Packers are on the rise, but their run ends in San Francisco.
#4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) at #3 Detroit Lions (12-5)
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers took down the completely broken Eagles, which shouldn't have been a surprise if you've been paying attention over the last few weeks. Philadelphia's defense has been horrid all year, and their lack of creativity in pass concepts, along with having zero answers to pressure, made their offense unwatchable. Throw in the fact that A.J. Brown missed his first game since becoming an Eagle, and there was no way the Buccaneers would lose unless they gave it away.
Tampa Bay's path to an upset starts with stuffing the Lions' run game. They weren't as dominant as usual last week, and the Bucs' run defense was stellar against the Eagles. They have some playmakers to disrupt the Lions' pass game, but if they can pair their pass looks off what they had success with in the run game, it'll be hard to overcome. I think we see a similar result to when these teams played each other earlier this year, with the Lions moving on to the NFC Championship.
#3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) at #2 Buffalo Bills (11-6)
A rematch of the classic 2021 season playoff overtime matchup, the Bills will get a great chance at revenge against Patrick Mahomes as he prepares for his first-ever road playoff game. Kansas City has a defense that can muddy this game up and keep it close throughout, but it's going to be very tough for them to generate consistent offense without separation from their receivers.
While it could be another year where people are underestimating the Chiefs, the Bills' defense has the tools to slow down the Chiefs and give them the upper edge. Josh Allen has to continue playing clean football as the run game could struggle against Kansas City, and they might lean on him. He will have to protect the ball even if the offense has to heavily lean on him again, but if he does, the Bills should move on. This should be another classic installment of the Allen-Mahomes duels, but I think this would be one where Allen and the Bills advance.
Championship Round Predictions
#3 Detroit Lions (12-5) at #1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Detroit pulled out a win against the Rams and could knock off the Bucs next week, but the Niners are a different beast. I wouldn't expect the Lions' pass rush to do enough to disrupt their passing attack, and the Niners have had success running against basically everybody. San Francisco's pass rush has the potential to make Goff's life a nightmare, but the Lions could make this interesting if they find success on the ground.
The best chance for the Lions to win this game and get to the Super Bowl is to lean on their run game and let Goff thrive in the play-action off it. There's a good chance the Lions can have a good amount of success in the run game, but their defense will have to keep the game close and not force them to play from behind. However, the Niners are too complete of a team and will head to the Super Bowl.
#2 Buffalo Bills (11-6) at #1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
Buffalo has been one of the hottest teams to end the year, but the Ravens have an elite defense along with the league MVP on their side. The new Todd Monken offense has transformed the Ravens, and Lamar Jackson might be playing the best he's ever played. There isn't much any team can do to stop him other than hope he messes up.
The Bills will struggle to consistently move the ball against Baltimore, and Jackson will do enough for the Ravens to get by Buffalo. The Ravens will return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2013 and the first time with Jackson.
Super Bowl LVIII Prediction
#1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5) vs. #1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
A number one seed versus number one seed Super Bowl isn't the boldest prediction for how this all unfolds, but the Ravens and 49ers have been a tier above the rest of the NFL all season long. Once the Ravens adjusted to their new offense and new additions, they looked unstoppable, aside from a blown lead versus a very good Browns team. San Francisco had a tough road stretch against good defenses where they dealt with injuries, but they have been very solid otherwise.
The Ravens got the best of the Niners in their matchup this year, as they forced Brock Purdy into four interceptions. This game would promise to be must-see TV again, but it seems like the year the Ravens end up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February.
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