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Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 14 Monday Night Football (December 11, 2023). Use Dan's NFL over/under props recommendations to win money on Sleeper.
Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 14 Monday Night Football. For the first time since Week 3, we have a doubleheader on Monday night: Packers vs. Giants and Titans vs. Dolphins.
Last week’s MNF prop picks finished 1-2, bringing our season record to 19-10 (66%). We’ve scoured the slate and highlighted three top props for this week you can use on Sleeper DFS or your favorite sportsbook.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting - there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for MNF on Sleeper DFS.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 14 Monday Night Football
Tyjae Spears OVER 2.5 Receptions
Spears has seen his snap share increase throughout his rookie season, culminating in a season-high 67% in Week 13. He has also seen more consistent receiving work of late as well, catching four or more balls three times in his last five games. The third-round pick is third among all Titans players in receptions and 14th among all running backs in that category – ahead of perennial pass-catching backs like D'Andre Swift and Saquon Barkley
Spears has a matchup with the Dolphins next up on Monday night, who just gave up 37 receiving yards on four catches to Commanders running back Antonio Gibson. Miami has given up the 12th-most receptions to opposing teams this season.
With Derrick Henry avoiding the concussion protocol this past week Spears will be the backup once more, but in a trailing game script, he will likely get a fair share of third-down and passing-down snaps. This makes his receptions prop one to consider this week.
Wan’Dale Robinson OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards
The Giants' passing offense has been deplorable this year, averaging a league-worst 151.6 passing yards per game (18 yards per game worse than the 31st-ranked team, the New York Jets). Robinson has shown the most promise of any of the team’s receivers this year, leading the Giants in receptions despite only playing in 10 games.
Robinson has three games of over 25 receiving yards in his last four, averaging 4.25 targets and 3.25 receptions per game over that span. The second-year receiver leads his team in fantasy points per route run (0.30) and yards per route run (1.08), showing promise for his receiving prop this week.
He matches up with the Packers on Monday, a zone-heavy team (78.5% of the time, 10th most) who are in the bottom half of the league in DVOA. Robinson leads the Giants in receptions and fantasy points against zone coverage this year.
Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool gives this prop a 20.9% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 34.75 receiving yards.
Chigoziem Okonkwo UNDER 3.5 Receptions
Okonkwo is coming off a six-target performance in an overtime loss to the Colts, which may have over-inflated his receptions prop this week against the Dolphins. The second-year tight end has only reached four or more catches once in his last five games.
The Dolphins defense is also rounding into form down the home stretch of the regular season, giving up 15 points or less in four straight. Last week they held Commanders tight end Logan Thomas catchless. The Dolphins present the sixth-toughest matchup for TEs this week according to PFF, and Okonkwo's matchup with Miami linebacker Duke Riley is projected as the fifth-toughest starting tight end matchup of the week.
PFF agrees with this pick, projecting a 69.4% likelihood of this over cashing out.
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
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