RADIO
Week 9 of the NFL is behind us and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the ninth week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?
Every week, I'll be looking at three to five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.
Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 9. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e. a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e. an anomalous result?
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C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Last Week: QB1
C.J. Stroud was electric on Sunday. The Texans lost kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn to injury during the game and while running back Dare Ogunbowale did kick a field goal late in the game, Houston was forced to go for two on every second-half touchdown. That kind of pressure can make it tough on a QB, especially a rookie.
Stroud relished that pressure, setting a new NFL record for passing yards in a game by a rookie, throwing for 407 and five touchdowns in the comeback win over Tampa. The final touchdown was a 15-yard strike to Tank Dell with just six seconds remaining.
This game was a good reminder of what Stroud can do when the offense lets him do it. Houston's run game has really struggled this season, yet Houston is 11th in the league in rush rate. Stroud was held under 200 yards the past two games before this breakout showing.
Simply put, Stroud can be a fantasy QB1 consistently if the Texans offense calls the game in a way that emphasizes the rookie passer. The team has some talented pass catchers and Stroud's done a great job avoiding turnovers, throwing just one pick all season. He's been incredible so far. Hopefully the Texans let him cook more.
[Quick aside here: I was going to write about a Texans pass-catcher but there were too many to settle on, so here are a few quick thoughts on them.
- Tank Dell (WR1): Dell had a pair of touchdowns and was targeted 11 times. If Houston gets him the ball down the field, he can be a strong fantasy WR2 play, but I wish we were seeing more of this on a game-to-game basis
- Noah Brown (WR2): Huge game for Brown, who caught six passes for 153 yards and a score. However, I really think this was more about Stroud than it was about Brown. In a normal game, he'd trail Dell and Collins by a decent margin.
- Nico Collins (WR10): Collins might have been supplanted by Dell as Houston's No. 1 receiver, but he got two red zone targets this week. Overall, his targets are a bit down, but he's a solid WR3 play.
- Dalton Schultz (TE2): Schultz has found the end zone in four of the last five games and has gone over 60 yards in all of those, including his 10-catch, 130-yard game this week. He's not in that top tier of tight ends yet, but he's a must-start if you don't have one of the elite tight ends.
Verdict: Obviously Stroud won't pass for 470 yards per game, but this game showed why he can be a low-end QB1 rest-of-season. Hopefully the playcalling reflects that going forward.
Joshua Dobbs, Minnesota Vikings
Last Week: QB5
Joshua Dobbs, who the Vikings traded for last week, wasn't the team's starting quarterback this week, but he was pressed into action by a Jaren Hall injury. Dobbs made the most of his Vikings debut, going 20-for-30 for 158 yards and two touchdowns while also adding seven carries for 66 yards.
Dobbs looked good. He's clearly someone who's been overlooked in the league and deserved to finally get a shot to start this year. It's just a shame that opportunity came in Arizona, where things were such a mess.
The good thing with Dobbs is that he uses his feet well. He's found the end zone on the ground three weeks in a row and the Vikings seemed good with letting him use that mobility in his Minnesota debut.
The...not bad, but less good...thing with Dobbs is that the passing upside isn't where you want it to be. He's been held under 200 yards five times this season. While some of that's surely on the Cardinals offensive woes, another part of it is just that he doesn't throw a ton of long balls. He's got the third-lowest yards per attempt of QBs with at least 250 snaps played per Next Gen Stats and he ranks in the middle of the pack in aDOT.
Verdict: I do like Dobbs a lot more than I did in Arizona, but he's likely just a solid streaming QB2 play, not a fantasy QB1
Keaton Mitchell, Baltimore Ravens
Last Week: RB3
What was it now...about a month ago when fantasy analysts started to beat the "pick Keaton Mitchell up" drum. I was down with that idea because he was a really good college player and I thought there was a pretty easy path to him passing Justice Hill for snaps. Then, nothing happened, and I ended up dropping Mitchell in all my redraft leagues, though I hung onto him in dynasty.
Well, what do you know? Right when I give up, he has his breakout game. Mitchell, who hadn't even had a carry yet in his NFL career, had nine carries for 138 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks this week.
Still, he only played 14 snaps, while Hill played 48. The difference on Sunday came with Gus Edwards, who had a season-low 18% snap share despite scoring a pair of touchdowns. Still, Edwards had both carries inside the 10-yard line from running backs. Mitchell, who scored his touchdown on a 40-yard scamper, didn't have a carry in the red zone at all.
This feels like a backfield that's trending toward being really messy. Edwards should still get short-yardage work and most of the red-zone attempts, but Mitchell's definitely earning some additional looks going forward.
Verdict: Mitchell's not suddenly a must-start option at running back, but he's worth a spot on your roster to see how this all shakes out
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last Week: TE2
Cade Otton has his best game of the season in every way this week. Most targets. Most yards. Most touchdowns. Tied for most catches. Overall, Otton caught six of his nine targets for 70 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
It was a really good game. Otton also played all 66 offensive snaps for the Buccaneers in this one. He's played over 90% of snaps in every Bucs game this year.
But for that level of playing time, you'd think there was a little production here, especially with him running over 90% of the team's routes in four of the past five games per Fantasy Life. Aside from this week, the production just hasn't shown up.
This was only the second time this season Otton had end zone targets. His 32% air yard share was by far his highest of the season, with 13% being his previous best.
I want to like Otton going forward, but I feel like I've got to see more before I can.
Verdict: Otton remains a low-end TE2, but another strong game would change that outlook
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