RADIO
We are entering that fantasy phase where some teams must plan for next year. Some squads have been hit with injuries, others bad luck. Whatever the reason, hundreds of managers in long-term keeper or dynasty leagues have a 2-7 or 3-6 record. This leaves you with little hope of contention and the startling reality of a rebuild. With that reality comes questions about next year and beyond. What players can you buy low on in hopes 2024 holds more?
With an eye on the future, let us discuss a couple of widely available rookie defenders who are worth stashing in dynasty. Calijah Kancey is near the top of that list. Despite having elite pass-rush film at Pitt, he is rostered in just 0.4% of IDP leagues. His pressure rate is better than Deforest Buckner, Leonard Williams, and Christian Wilkins. His pass rush win rate is higher than Zach Seiler or B.J. Hill and is tied with Ed Oliver. That’s fine company for a rookie DT.
An even deeper dynasty bargain is 49ers’ rookie safety Ji’Ayir Brown. San Francisco traded up for Brown in this past Draft, and their starting free safety (Tashaun Gipson) will be 34 next season. Brown could be on a similar track to Talanoa Hufanga, who started just three games as a rookie before becoming an All-Pro in his second year with San Fran. Brown may not reach those heights, but he made some big plays in training camp and led college football in INTs in 2021.
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Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Demarcus Lawrence, DL, Dallas Cowboys
Lawrence is rostered in 5.1% of IDP leagues and ranks as just the 55th-highest-scoring DL in standard IDP scoring this year. That said, he's playing against the Giants this week. You play starting pass rushers facing the Giants.
Maxx Crosby jumped ahead of T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons to rank as my top DL going into Week 9 because he faced the Giants. He finished with three sacks. Parsons is similarly the top DL in my ranks this week because of Big Blue. Lawrence gets a bump as well. New York's pass-blocking unit is the lowest graded in the NFL, giving up nearly 16 pressures and 5.4 sacks per game.
Stream: Eddie Jackson, DB, Chicago Bears
Jackson has been listed as "questionable" for weeks but never played. He finally returned to the field in Week 9 and saw 100% of the defensive snaps while notching five solo tackles. Now he faces a Panthers team that is third in pass attempts per game and a rookie quarterback who is tenth in Turnover Worthy Plays.
Jackson is being started in just 7.3% of IDP leagues right now. His matchup means he should be starting in many more.
Fade: Shaquille Leonard, LB, Indianapolis Colts
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen Leonard on this list, but he merits mentioning again because of a confluence of factors. First, Leonard recently complained about his role on the defense. Second, Zaire Franklin sat out Week 9. Third, Leonard’s playing time dropped precipitously, even with Franklin out.
These facts, taken together, are troubling. The Colt's lead LB missed their game against Carolina, yet Leonard played just 55% of the snaps. While that resulted in a solid fantasy performance (8.5 standard IDP points), playing time and opportunities matter in fantasy. Leonard’s snap share dropped 28% with Franklin out, despite Carolina staying within 10 points for most of the game. That suggests bigger issues are at play.
Leonard was not on the injury report at any time between Sunday night and Wednesday. That suggests there’s no major medical issue. There was a shortage of depth and the Carolina game was competitive, so the team shouldn’t be resting Leonard either. These factors suggest a disciplinary issue or a lack of trust between Leonard and the coaching staff. Both could impact his playing time in Week 10, especially if Franklin is back.
RT if you think Shaquille Leonard can get back to his forcing turnovers ways💪 #ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/z6ySGXkeWK
— The Blue Stable (@TheBlue_Stable) September 30, 2023
Fade: Daron Bland, DB, Dallas Cowboys
Bland still sits as DB29 in my Week 10 rankings, so I am not telling you to bench him. He has the potential for a pick-six against a horrendous Giants team starting Tommy Devito, a quarterback many dedicated fans didn’t even know was in the NFL in August. That said, Bland is even more big-play dependent than usual this week, making him a risky play in shallow leagues.
One reason Bland is big play-dependent is his spotty tackle rates. He has four games with three or fewer tackles. That’s the definition of “bland” for fantasy… see what I did there? Hilarious! Anyways, the point is Bland’s fantasy value is reliant on access to the football. This year, 67% of his standard fantasy points have come from PDs, INTs, and TDs.
Bland’s reliance on big plays could be a problem against a Giants offense averaging the second-fewest pass attempts per game over their past three weeks. Tommy Devito has attempted just 27 passes this season, which is good for the possibility of big plays but bad for volume. Worse, there are no clear target monsters on the Giants. That lack of volume and shadow opportunities means Bland must rely on big plays this week.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Denver Broncos
Josh Allen is tied for the NFL lead in interceptions, and Stefon Diggs leads wide receivers in targets. Patrick Surtain II has a history of shadowing opponents’ top receivers when it's merited. A shadow is merited in this situation and should lead to tremendous volume.
Stream: Tariq ‘Riq’ Woolen, DB, Seattle Seahawks
Last year’s interception phenom has cooled in his sophomore campaign, with Devon Witherspoon stealing the flashy role in Seattle’s secondary this year. Woolen remains a talented ball hawk in his own right, however.
The man now known as "Riq" is facing off against the NFL's highest-volume passing attack this week. Better yet, Sam Howell is tied for the league lead in INTs. While the Commanders spread the ball to multiple weapons, they've consolidated their usage over the past three weeks, aiming 54 targets at Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Both predominantly play outside while seeing an average of 18 targets since Week 6.
Fade: Denico Autry, DL, Tennessee Titans
Autry has been a decent fantasy play this season, especially in deeper leagues. He ranks 25th amongst edges in standard fantasy points and has just three games without a half-sack or more. That’s the definition of reliability for a DL rostered in only 1.9% of IDP leagues.
Unfortunately, Autry spends over half his time lined up over the left tackle. That puts him across from the best pass blocker in the NFL (Tristan Wirfs) this week. Wirfs ranks first amongst all starting tackles in PFF's pass-blocking grades. He's allowed zero sacks, three quarterback hits, and seven pressures all season. This is despite tough competition from Philly's stacked line, Danielle Hunter, and Aidan Hutchinson.
Wirfs is the closest thing we have to a shutdown tackle. Harold Landry III should avoid him based on where Tennessee usually deploys him, but Autry shouldn’t be so lucky. Wirfs deflates any opponent’s fantasy value significantly.
Fade: D.J. Reed, CB, New York Jets
As I mentioned in my rankings column, the Raiders and Jets are both bottom-three in offensive plays per game. That includes games with Josh McDaniel and Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. In our small one-game sample of Aidan O'Connell and Antonio Pierce at Vegas’ helm, the Raiders attempted the fourth-fewest passes in the league. That rate could continue since Gang Green and Vegas both play conservatively.
Reed is also the lowest targeted cornerback in the NFL, amongst players with 50% or more of their team's defensive snaps. His coverage grade is top-five, meaning he should continue to be avoided. That makes Reed a risky fantasy play. As of this writing, the Kansas State alum was the 50th most rostered DB in fantasy, ahead of better options like Tre’von Moehrig, Jayron Kearse, and Paulson Adebo. His numbers don’t support that.
Defenders Worth Adding
Paulson Adebo, CB, New Orleans Saints
Rostered in just 4% of IDP leagues as of this writing, Adebo is on a tear. He ranks as the fourth-highest-scoring CB in fantasy this year and has three straight contests with double-digit standard fantasy points. He also has a solid matchup this week against a journeyman quarterback. While Dobbs was great last week, he is third in the NFL in Turnover Worthy Plays and he struggles mightily with the deep ball.
A career day for Paulson Adebo 🔥
2 INTs, 1 FF, 1 FR, 7 TKLS, 3 passes defended
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/ED5OAO9XYo
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) November 5, 2023
David Onyemata, DT, Atlanta Falcons
Onyemata’s snap percentage didn’t go up with the injury to Grady Jarret, but his production and total snaps did. He is now the third-highest-scoring DT in fantasy, and Atlanta has the easiest schedule in the league ahead of them. Onyemata is rostered in just 4% of leagues, so he is widely available in even deeper formats.
Gregory Rousseau, DL, Buffalo Bills
Rousseau is the 66th most rostered DL in fantasy, and that’s understandable. He ranks 43rd amongst edges in standard fantasy points and hasn't notched a sack since Week 4.
That said, Rousseau’s pass rush win rate is 30th amongst edges with 100 pass rush snaps or more. He also ranks 28th in pressures off the edge, plus four of his next six fantasy matchups are against offensive lines that rate bottom-half in pass protection. He’s a deep league add.
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