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A lot of sports fans will be focused on football today. But there is still plenty of baseball going on and, in fact, we happen to have a pretty loaded slate for pitching as a bunch of aces are taking the hill for their respective teams. For a strikeout prop enthusiast like myself, that should mean that there will be some K props worth targeting!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, September 10, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Tanner Bibee OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)
So after further review, we won't be betting on the studs like Gerrit Cole or Corbin Burnes. But we do have some young pitchers in good spots for strikeouts today with Tanner Bibee being my first pick to whiff six or more Angels.
Bibee's consistency here has been up and down in terms of hitting this number frequently, but he has done it in the best matchups for the most part all year. His last start against the Twins went south with five walks, but I was already nervous about that one due to him facing them two starts in a row.
The Angels continue to be a very K-heavy lineup to finish the season. They now rank fifth in all of baseball with a 25% K% against RHP over the last 30 days.
Tylor Megill OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)
Tylor Megill gets the coveted matchup against the Twins, the team that continues to be a top-five target for strikeouts against RHP all season long. While Megill really struggled in the first half of the season, he's made the most of his late-season audition for next year's rotation. He has strung together four pretty good outings in a row, striking out five hitters and allowing three or fewer runs in each.
The Twins can smack around righties when they are making contact. There's a little risk here that Megill gets an early hook if he labors. It's a low bar set for him here in a matchup where he could easily go over if he can avoid walks and a big inning early.
Jose Berrios OVER 17.5 OUTS (-120 DraftKings)
Jose Berrios comes into this start against KC having gone six innings exactly (18 outs) in his last three starts. Two of those starts weren't very good as he gave up five earned runs to both Washington and Baltimore. But it is always a good sign when pitchers are given a long enough leash to pitch deep into games even when they aren't having their best outing.
Kansas City doesn't strike out quite enough for my liking to hit his K prop, but they are well below average in run production and walk rate against RHP. Berrios was solid in his last start against Oakland and gets the benefit of another fairly soft matchup here. I think we can count on him for six innings or more again today.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Willy Adames OVER 1.5 strikeouts (+150 DraftKings)
I am going to go way off the radar here in terms of what types of props I usually target with hitters. We typically think of going over for total bases or other offensive stats, but we can also bet on strikeouts for individual hitters as well. A lot of bettors I talk to on a daily basis have been focusing on finding hitters who have been making good contact lately and going under 0.5 at good odds for a strikeout-less game.
But today I am going after a matchup where I think we could see a whiff twice or even more at some really juicy odds. Willy Adames has had a pretty solid series for the Brewers so far against the Yankees this weekend. Today, he has to face Gerrit Cole as the opposing pitcher.
Adames already carries a 24% strikeout rate against RHP on the season, but that number jumps to 27% over his last month of play. He can really struggle with sliders from righties, which is what he will see from Cole in addition to the high-90s fastball.
The data that originally grabbed my attention here is the rather larger sample size of plate appearances that Adames has against Cole over the last several seasons and just how badly he has struggled to make contact against him. In 36 plate appearances against Cole, Adames has managed just six hits and three walks while striking out...20 times! That's correct, he has struck out 20 out of 36 times facing Cole for a wild 55.6% K%.
Assuming that Adames faces Cole three times today, he could easily whiff twice. Even if Cole only gets him once, he will then likely face one of the better high-leverage relievers from the Yankees bullpen in the eighth or ninth inning in his final at-bat. It's certainly a riskier bet, but the odds are good enough for me to take a shot here.
Alright, good luck, my friends -- let's cash some bets!
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