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Thunder Dan's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/23/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Make way, we are coming in hot! I hope you read my props piece yesterday as we had a clean sweep of strikeout props for what feels like the first time in a month or so. I'm going to do my best to carry that over to my game predictions today and I have a few games that I feel really good about that I want you to wager on with me!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, August 23, 2023. We will focus on moneyline bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I am usually talking betting and baseball this time of the year!
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ White Sox
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: SEA (-218)
SEA: George Kirby | CHW: Michael Kopech
The Mariners are having just an incredible run here in August. They beat the Sox 6-3 again last night after whooping them 14-2 in the opening game on Monday night and have now reeled off eight straight wins. This is their second 8-game winning streak of the month as they now sit at 16-4 through 20 games this month!
It's hard not to roll with a team that is on such a roll, especially when they have a very distinct pitching advantage. George Kirby is turning in one of the best seasons of any control pitcher, with 133 strikeouts to just 14 walks and a tidy 1.02 WHIP this year (he leads the majors). He's facing a guy who has done very much the opposite as Michael Kopech is among the league leaders in walks (the most with 76) and hit batsmen (4th most with 9). Kopech's 5.12 ERA and 1.50 WHIP are a product of his lack of control and what has snowballed into a major lack of confidence as a result.
The White Sox have been on a downward spiral since the trade deadline, winning just one series since they dealt Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, and others. Meanwhile, this Seattle offense has really started to surge behind their young star Julio Rodriguez and the red-hot bat of catcher Cal Raleigh.
Kopech just allows too many baserunners and too many long balls. I look for Kirby to pitch well again here and for his offense to give him a nice cushion to do his thing. Seattle should cover the run line today and beat up on an inferior opponent.
Pick: Seattle -1.5 (-135) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Padres
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SDP (-122)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara | SDP: Seth Lugo
The Marlins really need to win this series with the rubber match today if they have any hope of staying in the Wild Card race. Luckily, they have their ace, Sandy Alcantara, on the hill. And their ace has actually looked like the 2022 version of himself lately as he's pitched very effectively over the last six weeks.
I love betting on Sandy as an underdog, especially when he's facing an opponent who is rolling out a lesser pitcher. I have nothing against Seth Lugo, he is having a fine season, but he's not a dominant pitcher by any means. The angle here for me is the first five innings. I had Sandy and the Fish F5 in his last start and they smacked the Dodgers, so you know I am going back to it here against a lesser team like the Padres.
San Diego's offense has been such a disappointment this year - they really shouldn't scare anyone. And the Marlins, conversely, have picked up their offensive production since bringing in guys like Josh Bell and Jake Burger at the deadline.
Hey, if it's tied after five innings, we get our money back. If the Marlins can scratch out a few runs and Sandy does his thing, then we cash this bet at close to even money. I like the Fish here on the road, I just don't really want to bank on their bullpen in order to get the full game money line which is +102.
Pick: MIA F5 ML (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook
Bonus Underdog Special: Washington ML (+120)
I nearly bet them last night at +150, but chickened out! The Yanks are a mess and the Nats have the pitching advantage tonight with Gore going up against a broken Luis Severino.
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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