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Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user decides on the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Shane McClanahan OVER Lucas Giolito
You'll see that I like the "under" for McClanahan's FPTS line below, but I still believe he'll do enough to outscore Giolito in his debut for the Angels. Giolito can occasionally flash upside thanks to his decent 25.7% strikeout rate, but this is decidedly not the matchup to target him. The Braves rarely strike out, and they rank first in OPS (.821), ISO (.222), and wOBA (.351) against right-handed pitching this season.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OVER Corbin Carroll
Speaking of the Braves, Acuna Jr. is in a great spot to outproduce the D-Backs breakout star in Carroll today. Acuna Jr. gets the sometimes-erratic Giolito (4.49 xERA, 1.22 WHIP, 41.7% hard-hit rate), while Carroll will be squaring off against a more consistent and reliable pitcher in Logan Webb (3.49 ERA, 3.61 xERA, 1.10 WHIP). The Braves hold a lofty 5.6-run implied total, while the D-Backs hold a 3.6-run implied total, for what that's worth.
Gerrit Cole OVER Lucas Giolito
Logan Gilbert OVER Lucas Giolito
Eduardo Rodriguez OVER Lucas Giolito
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Shane McClanahan (UNDER)
There are only four pitchers with lines today on RIVAL, and McClanahan is the only line I'm comfortable attacking. The Rays' young ace has followed up a concerning month of June (3.76 ERA, 4.94 FIP, 17.8% K%) with a terrible month of July (6.00 ERA), and he hasn't produced more than 20 FPTS in five consecutive starts. The Yankees are about league-average hitting against lefties this season, but one notable metric they rank well in is ISO, as their .193 ISO vs. LHP ranks fourth in the MLB.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (OVER), Juan Soto (OVER), Giancarlo Stanton (UNDER), Yandy Diaz (UNDER)
Kyle Freeland is not a pitcher we need to fear, but he is a lefty, and that means we need to get to Tatis Jr. today. He holds a .950 OPS, .275 ISO, and .404 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, and the Padres are rocking an astronomical 7.2-run implied total in Coors Field.
You might as well include Soto in your parlays today. While Soto hits much better against right-handed pitching, the game is still being played at Coors Field, and the Padres have the highest implied run total on the board by a country mile. Freeland won't last too long in this one, so the pitching will get turned over to a bullpen that ranks sixth-worst in the MLB in terms of xFIP (4.58).
This is an odd situation where I'm recommending the under on a hitter who's facing a pitcher that I'm also recommending the under on. While I don't think McClanahan does enough to exceed his fantasy line today, I'm betting on him holding Stanton in check. For my taste, he's too much of an all-or-nothing hitter at this point in his career. Over his last six contests, he has produced twice as many games with zero FPTS (four) than fantasy points (two).
I was hoping RIVAL would give us the option to pick a Rays hitter today. I'm going with the under on Diaz, despite him being on a 5-for-11 tear over his last three games. He's facing Gerrit Cole, a pitcher who holds a dominant 2.64 ERA and has allowed three earned runs or less in ten consecutive starts.
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