5 Running Back Sleepers/Values based on ADP

Every season, there are stars that come out of nowhere to break the fantasy football landscape who were drafted late or were not drafted at all. We follow the NFL storylines all offseason, read injury reports, watch every snap of preseason football, and follow all of the beat reporters around the league, and come Week 1, we are still left asking ourselves "How did we miss this?"

Last season, Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard had an average draft position ("ADP") of RB35 and finished as the RB9 on the year. In 2021, Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner also had an ADP of RB35 and blew up and finished as the RB5 overall.

The fact of the matter is that hitting on later-round players significantly increases your chances of winning at fantasy football. The early rounds are easy, everyone knows who the studs are, but if you can find the late-round breakouts and pair them with the early-round studs, your team will be practically unbeatable. It is why sleeper articles are so popular, and why strategies such as late-QB or zero-RB can pay huge dividends for fantasy managers. So let's start with the most volatile position in the sport, the running backs. Here are five running backs that are being drafted in the seventh round or later that could significantly outperform their ADP and help you bring home that coveted fantasy championship.

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Khalil Herbert - Chicago Bears:

Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert is a tremendous value right now. He is currently being drafted as the RB36 according to National Fantasy Championship ADP, behind payers such as Samaje Perine, Brian Robinson, and A.J. Dillon. The difference, however, is that Herbert is likely to be the RB1 for the Bears heading into the season, and he has proven to be nothing short of an elite and efficient running back according to the most popular metrics.

One of my favorite metrics for predicting fantasy football success is yards after contact per attempt ("YAC/att"). This shows how successful a running back is at creating yards on his own, beyond what is blocked for him. Last season, Herbert finished with an elite 3.3 YAC/att., which was good for the 3rd best average in the league (min. 100 carries), ahead of elite rushers like Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Aaron Jones. He also finished with a 20.2% broken/missed tackle rate, tied with the aforementioned Tony Pollard.

With David Montgomery talking bad about the #Bears it only seems right that we remind everyone that Khalil Herbert is that dude.. pic.twitter.com/tWCJBmiFx6

— Bears Nation (@BearsNationCHI) May 24, 2023

The Chicago bruiser also finished 1st in the league in rush yards over expectation per attempt with 1.44. This means that he produced more yards per attempt than he was expected to get based on the play call, the offensive line formation and blocking scheme, and the position of the defenders at the time of the handoff.

To put it in layman's terms, Herbert is an uber-efficient runner with a history and an opportunity that sets him up perfectly for significant fantasy success in 2023. I would be thrilled with Herbert as my RB3 and right now he can be drafted as a flex option, which, quite frankly, is stealing. The only other running backs on the team are D'Onta Foreman, rookie Roschon Johnson, and scat-back Travis Homer.

Foreman's efficiency paled in comparison to Herbert last season, and Johnson is a rookie who is going to take time to develop. It is my opinion that Herbert will be the lead running back for the Justin Fields-led Chicago offense and that the only way he loses his job is through poor performance, which is a total stranger to him. Right now, Herbert is one of the best values in the draft, and his ADP will only rise as reports come out that he will be the man in the Chicago backfield this year.

 

Rashaad Penny - Philadelphia Eagles:

Philadelphia Eagles running back Rashaad Penny has been nothing short of spectacular when he is on the field. Unfortunately for Penny, that has not been very often as he has been injured and missed significant time in every year of his career. He has played a total of 42 games over five years and has not played more than 10 games since his rookie season. However, he is nothing short of an impressive and extremely efficient running back. His career yards per carry ("YPC") is an incredible 5.7 , and during his time with the Seattle Seahawks, he posted 6.1 YPC in 2021 and 6.3 YPC in 2022 as their featured ball carrier.

Rashaad Penny running wild in the snow. #Seahawks @pennyhendrixx

📺: #CHIvsSEA on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/F6fJXtnUMO

— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2021

Penny is also elite at creating yards on his own, leading the league in YAC/att with 3.9 (min 50. carries) in 2022, and 3.7 over the last two seasons. Those numbers are better than Nick Chubb, who I regard as the best pure runner in the league. Penny is set up for his best season yet in both efficiency and production as he gets to run behind not only the best offensive line he has ever had but the best offensive line in the league in Philadelphia. The rushing ability of quarterback Jalen Hurts will only benefit Penny's numbers, and the presence of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the outside will make it virtually impossible for defenses to stack the box against him.

If Penny can stay healthy, there is no scenario where he has a disappointing season. He is on a high-scoring offense with an incredible supporting cast in a weak division and an elite defense. It is a recipe for pure domination, and despite his injury concerns, his RB37 ADP makes him worth the risk. Besides injury, the only downside to Penny is that he is not a large factor in the passing game which prevents him from having a top-10 ceiling, but with an ADP of RB37, if he finishes as an RB2 you have made a large return on a small investment.

 

David Montgomery - Detroit Lions:

David Montgomery is not elite at anything, but he is very good at everything. If you take a player like that and throw him on a high-scoring offense with a defined role, it is a recipe for fantasy success. Montgomery has joined the Detroit Lions, who scored the third-most total touchdowns last year (54), as well as the third-most rushing touchdowns (23). He is poised to be the early downs and goal-line back for the team with plenty of opportunities to punch it in for six.

Last year, Jamaal Williams scored 17 rushing touchdowns, 10 of which came from one yard out, and was stopped at the one-yard line another four times. Williams also saw 57 touches in the red zone, second behind only Austin Ekeler. If Montgomery sees even half of those numbers, he will be a tremendous value at his current ADP of RB28.

This is a straight up superhero run from #Bears David Montgomery.

Give me all the crow, he was outrageously good at the second level on Sunday. Utterly heroic performance, nigh untacklable.

What a phenomenal way to get extension talks brewing. pic.twitter.com/xLKYzke1ZA

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) September 20, 2022

Montgomery is a better running back than Jamaal Williams in just about every area of the game, so there is much to be excited about heading into 2023. The downside is that the Lions drafted explosive rookie Jahmyr Gibbs at 12 overall in the NFL Draft and he should see almost all of the touches in the passing game. This caps Montgomery's upside as his managers will not be seeing 40+ receptions anymore.

Regardless, he could score 10 touchdowns in his sleep on this offense, and he has top-10 upside if Gibbs were to go down at any point in the season. He is currently being drafted behind Dameon Pierce, Rachaad White, and D'Andre Swift, and I'd rather have Montgomery because there are a ton of question marks with each of them and Montgomery's role is as safe as it gets.

 

Damien Harris - Buffalo Bills:

The Buffalo Bills know one thing for certain, the success of their franchise depends on the health of quarterback Josh Allen. Up until now Allen has taken a beating, particularly inside the red zone, because he is the most powerful runner on the team and he got the call in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

Zack Moss was a huge disappointment and Devin Singletary was too small to push the pile, so the Bills had little choice but to depend on their precious signal caller. So what did they do in the offseason? They signed one of the best goal-line backs in free agency, Damien Harris, formerly of the New England Patriots.

Damien Harris with his THIRD TD of the day‼️

(via @Patriots) pic.twitter.com/oAeMAhP0Zl

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 26, 2021

Harris joins an elite Bills offense that scored 28.4 points per game (2nd), and he immediately becomes the early down and goal-line back. Last season, Devin Singletary saw 178 carries, 40 of which came in the red zone, and that feels like a floor for Harris. In 2021, Harris broke out for 15 rushing touchdowns and he scored another three rushing touchdowns in the first four games of 2022 before injuries derailed the season. He has a nose for the endzone and he will have plenty of opportunities to get there in Buffalo.

His only competition for touches, besides Josh Allen, are sophomore James Cook and veteran Latavius Murray. Murray is on his last legs and Cook figures to handle most of the receiving work, so there is a very realistic probability that Harris leads the backfield in carries. His current ADP of RB41 is total lunacy considering he is being drafted behind Jamaal Williams, Zach Charbonnet, and Samaje Perine.

Of those named, Harris has the clear path to be his team's leader in carries, is on an elite high-scoring offense, and he does not have a stud running back ahead of him on the depth chart. So let the fantasy community's oversight be your gain, and comfortably add Harris to your team's backfield in the ninth or tenth round of drafts this summer.

 

De'Von Achane - Miami Dolphins:

Rookie running back for the Miami Dolphins De'Von Achane has the potential to be the steal of the draft this summer. He has fallen to RB42 in ADP, but he has a ceiling of RB24 or better in Mike McDaniel's explosive offense. The problem is that Jeff Wilson, Jr. and Raheem Mostert are still ahead of him on the depth chart, but it won't take long to figure out that Achane has a gear that few athletes possess.

If we know anything about McDaniel it is that he loves players with explosive speed. Achane ran a blazing 4.32 40-yard dash at the combine and ran the 200m in 20 seconds. He gives McDaniel that Jaylen Waddle/Tyreek Hill-type speed in the backfield and it is scary to think about the explosive plays that the offense will be capable of with him behind Tua.

Speed, shiftiness, breaking tackles, and did I say speed!?!?…. Everything you love in a Running Back. Get to know new Miami Dolphins RB out of Texas A&M, Devon Achane:

HELL YEAH!!! #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/QfoswAbCfw

— Big E (@ian693) April 29, 2023

Raheem Mostert was the speed element in the Miami backfield last year, but it is no surprise that he has lost a step at the age of 30 and after a multitude of serious injuries. He was re-signed in the offseason, however, Jeff Wilson was signed for more money, and the Dolphins took Achane as the fifth running back off the board.

If he can pick up the playbook quickly we could see Achane splitting touches with Wilson by Week 4, and with his speed and McDaniel's genius wide-zone rushing scheme, every time he touches the ball could end in a house call. It is tough to trust your fantasy success to a 5'8" rookie running back, but with a 10th-round ADP, you'd be hard-pressed to find more boom for your buck. 

Achane is currently being drafted as the RB42 in the same area as Zach Charbonnet, Jamaal Williams, and Tyler Allgeier, none of whom possess the same explosive upside as Achane. He is the perfect player to add to a fantasy manager's running back room because at worst, he doesn't see any touches and he gets dropped with very little cost, but at best, he solidifies himself as a weekly flex option and propels his managers to a championship. The later rounds are all about upside and potential and Achane is dripping with both.

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