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It is so weird typing an article at 5PM in Iowa for a PGA event that is about to start in 8 hours time, with Rory McIlroy at the top of the leaderboard at -10 and Tyrrell Hatton, Tom Kim, and Benny An sitting one shot back at -9. I could also probably just leave a random sentence in this intro paragraph that goes like, "Scottie Scheffler once again finds himself losing strokes putting but inside the top 10 heading into the weekend", which, is the case once more for the ball striking freak show. In Champions Tour News, Padraig Harrington sits in T7 alongside the World No. 1, T2G freak, finding a level of comfort on a links-style course that must feel like a high end sealy posturepedic at this point of his career.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership
Going into Round 3, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 3 Strategy
With weather looming in the PM those that made the cut are rolling out off both tees in threes for the second Saturday in a row. I was looking forward to trying to leverage the Scottish weather to our advantage tomorrow but with these tee times that is now a thing of the past. We will have to try and find ownership leverage as our key difference maker for R3.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: We tend to just lean on one guy in the $10K range and then find our value in the 4 digit salary price ranges, which, when you have the ball striking freak show that is Scottie Scheffler as your favorite play at $11,300, is seemingly someone we feel comfortable putting the majority of our high-priced trust into. His spike putting is not necessarily going to knock your socks off, but man, if that putter warms up for just one round, course records are in jeopardy.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Tommy Fleetwood became one of the only golfers shoot his second 62 on at a US Open just a few Sundays ago, showing that he has the potential to go low when he plays without any leaderboard pressure. He sits in 30th place and is $9,100 which can buy you the 2nd-best R3 strokes gained average in the field (the best will be in our favorite play in the $7K range). He graded out well pre-tournament and has been struggling on the ball striking front and with the putter, but, as we have seen on countless occasions, he is very capable of levitating up the leaderboard in typically "Golf Jesus" fashion.
Other options: Wyndham Clark, Xander Schaufele
$8,000+
Favorite play: A hot putter can level any playing field on any course, and Min Woo Lee is the only golfer who's 75th percentile SG Putting is in the 2 strokes gained region, which means that on any given day, all we need is for one of the worst iron players in the field to have a "spike approach round" and let the putter and insane distance off the tee do the rest of the damage. Usually we looking for spike putting rounds, but Min Woo is the major of upside-down-town, where we are starting to purchase a few more properties.
Other options: Justin Thomas (the $8k range is tiny).
$7,000+
Favorite play: The top round 3 scorer of those that made the cut is Nick Taylor, RBC Canadian Open R3 of 8 total strokes gained doing a lot of heavy lifting, he has gained 2+ strokes in 7 of his 9 Saturday rounds this year. The putter can be an absolute weapon for Nick and at this $7,100 price tag and minimal ownership, there is a good chance he finds himself in at 50% of my lineups as the model has him projected for the 5th most points in tomorrow's round.
Other options: Lucas Herbert, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox, Eric Cole, Kurt Kitayama, Austin Eckroat, Tom Hoge, Andrew Putnam. (We are probably going to roster Scottie in 50%+ of our lineups too, making this the range we will need to cycle through at these prices.
$6,000+
Favorite play: Ben Taylor is a really talented golfer that really has not shown much promise since getting married prior to the Valspar. He has made the cut on the number and is min price. He is an Englishman who is now back to playing golf in the UK and potentially back home with his family after spending many weeks over in the states. He is a spike putting beast and if the ball striking gives us just enough birdie chances in R3, that putter has been starved of any meaningul action, so it could gobble up any birdie op that is served up.
Other options: J.T. Poston, Billy Horschel, Ben Martin, David Lingmerth.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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