RADIO
For some, we are rapidly approaching the official start of fantasy football season. For dynasty enthusiasts, it's always fantasy football season. Nonetheless, the upcoming weeks are exciting for all fantasy gamers as we begin to draft or look to improve our dynasty lineups.
Because of this, it's not uncommon to find that older players with a high ceiling for the upcoming season begin to spike in value around this time of the year. The vast majority of dynasty managers, refusing to rebuild, will convince themselves that their mediocre teams can contend and hold onto their productive aging assets for dear life. Proceed in trade negotiations with caution and avoid overpaying to take on risk whenever possible.
Use this portion of the offseason to your advantage and sneak some undervalued assets onto your team by trading away riskier players that others are willing to break the bank for. As always, I'll highlight two trade targets and two players I'm hoping to move on from ahead of Week 1, keeping in mind that values should differ from team to team depending on strategy.
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Players to Target in Trades for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
The disrespect for Kyler Murray has gone too far. The 25-year-old former first-overall NFL Draft pick has seen his ADP fall to the middle of the fourth round in Superflex dynasty startups on Sleeper. One year ago, he was a locked-and-loaded first-round selection as a top-six dynasty QB.
One would assume that this dramatic decrease in value would be due to a down year in 2022, but this is far from the case. In his 10 full games played, Murray averaged over 20 fantasy points, a feat only accomplished by six other quarterbacks last season. Although this cannot be considered a "down year", Murray was, in fact, more productive in both 2020 and 2021, which demonstrates just how good he has been so far in his career. He finished as the QB3 and QB4 in points per game in those seasons, respectively.
Kyler Murray fantasy points per game by year:
🔹 2020 - 24.4
🔹 2021 - 22.2
🔹 2022 - 20.7This man is just 25 years old, under contract through 2028, and is being valued as the dynasty QB12 on @KeepTradeCut.
Today is a great day to trade for Murray in dynasty leagues.
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) July 3, 2023
The dynasty community is clearly viewing Murray from a short-sighted perspective considering he is expected to miss some of the upcoming campaign after tearing his ACL back in December. Even for teams going all-in to win a title this season, however, I can't imagine fading Murray at his current price. He may not have DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal when he returns, but let's not pretend that Murray needed Hopkins to become a fantasy star.
In his rookie season, Murray scored as the QB6 with 36-year-old Larry Fitzgerald and second-year pro Christian Kirk as his primary weapons. Just last year, Murray was plenty productive throughout the first six weeks with Marquise Brown as his WR1 while Hopkins was suspended.
There may be some concern that Murray, following a serious knee injury, will struggle to post rushing statistics similar to those of his first four seasons. This concern isn't invalid, but recent history suggests he can bounce back.
The most comparable quarterback to Murray in terms of mobility that recently suffered a torn ACL is Deshaun Watson. Watson went down just eight weeks into his rookie season but came back to average almost 470 rushing yards on about 90 attempts over his next three. Murray has relied a little more on his legs than Watson to this point, but nearly 500 rushing yards is nothing to scoff at.
Murray seems especially appealing to rebuilding teams as he is still young but may not make a significant impact again until 2024. Still, I would be happy to acquire him in any and every Superflex league in which he is valued as less than a top-20 overall asset.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Whereas I'm totally comfortable adding Kyler Murray to any dynasty roster, Mike Williams is someone I'm only pursuing with a contending team. That being said, I think Williams could prove to be the single best value in dynasty when it comes to win-now receivers.
Throughout his six-year career, Williams has been regarded as a boom-or-bust fantasy option. There is little evidence to refute this, but it should be acknowledged that he "booms" nearly as much as anyone in the league.
Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Stefon Diggs, and Ja’Marr Chase
…is the full list of players with a higher top-10 weekly finish rate since 2021 than Mike Williams (.5 PPR) pic.twitter.com/CSGWuwLulS
— Ryan Heath (@QBLRyan) June 30, 2023
Coming off of an outstanding 2021 season in which he finished as a fantasy WR1, 2022 felt like a step backward for Williams. When excluding the two contests that Williams played on less than 40 percent of snaps, though, he averaged a respectable 12.5 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring. He averaged 13 as the WR10 the season prior.
Of course, the Chargers spent first-round draft capital on TCU receiver Quentin Johnston, who many are projecting to have a substantial role right away. Luckily, there should be plenty of passing volume to go around in Los Angeles as the Chargers totaled the second-most pass attempts in the NFL last season.
Under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, the Chargers should continue to air it out. During Moore's four-year tenure in Dallas, the Cowboys finished top-five in pass attempts twice. The team also led the league in total offensive yards twice in the same span.
If Moore can bring this level of success to his new squad, the Chargers should be a fantasy goldmine given all of their weapons on offense. Williams could perhaps be the biggest beneficiary of the OC change when considering Moore's willingness to push the ball downfield in Dallas. Just last season alone, the Cowboys' top three wideouts all had an average target distance greater than 10 yards. Williams was the only receiver in L.A. to eclipse double digits in this metric.
We know quarterback Justin Herbert has one of the best deep balls in the NFL, which makes for a perfect marriage with both Moore and Williams. Even with Johnston added to the equation, Williams should have no trouble returning value on his 10th-round Superflex startup ADP as one of the best big-play receivers in fantasy.
Managers that believe they have a real shot at a dynasty championship this year shouldn't hesitate to add to a second-round rookie pick if it means getting Williams in exchange.
Players to Trade Away for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Texans running back Dameon Pierce was one of the best values in both dynasty and redraft fantasy leagues last season. Despite being selected in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Pierce managed to win the starting job very quickly in what was considered to be a murky running back room.
After posting 939 rushing yards in 13 games as a rookie, Pierce is valued as a mid-range RB2 with a Superflex startup ADP in the fifth round. When considering the other options in this range, I can't help but fade Pierce in all formats.
Pierce suffered an ankle sprain in Week 14 of the 2022 season, but his production began declining much earlier. After three top-12 positional finishes in the first five weeks, Pierce turned in just one RB1 performance over his next eight games.
It certainly didn't help that the Texans scored the second-fewest points in the NFL last year, but it's hard to imagine them becoming prolific in 2023. On paper, C.J. Stroud is a huge upgrade over Davis Mills and Kyle Allen, but what can we reasonably expect from a rookie quarterback in an offense featuring one of the most questionable receiving corps in the league?
To make matters worse, Houston brought in Devin Singletary this offseason, who should instantly be viewed as superior to any of the other backs on the team's roster last season. Singletary may not be a world-beater, but the 25-year-old was relatively efficient in his time in Buffalo and proved to be capable as a receiver.
Devin Singletary out-targeted “receiving RB” James Cook 52-32 last year.
Give me one good reason he’s not going to do the same to Dameon Pierce in 2023.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) July 8, 2023
It's fair to acknowledge that Singletary only fetched a small one-year deal from Houston in free agency, but the veteran will still be paid more than Pierce in 2023. Because the Texans have invested so little in Pierce, we cannot be so confident that he will remain the starter for years to come.
On a rebuilding roster, I would look to flip Pierce for a young wide receiver or future rookie draft compensation. Contenders would be wise to go after workhorse backs valued similarly to Pierce such as Derrick Henry or Najee Harris.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
There has been a ton of hype surrounding Dalton Kincaid since the NFL Draft in April, and understandably so. Kincaid was surprisingly drafted at the end of the first round by the Buffalo Bills, a team boasting an explosive offense but lacking a consistent receiving threat behind Stefon Diggs.
Kincaid may check every box when it comes to criteria for a receiving tight end, but history tells us that tight end production requires patience.
Dalton Kincaid becomes the 9th TE drafted in the 1st Round across the last 10 NFL Drafts
Quick look at these 1st Round TE's, their Rookie Szn Fantasy PPG and Career High Fantasy PPG ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/G3CM4Ps3EL
— Nick Skrip (@P2WFantasy) May 5, 2023
Kyle Pitts, arguably the greatest tight end prospect of all time, had a sensational rookie season. He still finished outside of the top-10 fantasy tight ends on a points-per-game basis in 2021. Evan Engram is the only other outlier over the past 10 seasons as a first-round rookie tight end you actually wanted to start every week.
Kincaid's opportunity is undoubtedly unique given his potential to line up in the slot for one of the league's best offenses. Still, it's important to recognize the difficulties he faces in his first season, not only transitioning to the NFL but competing for targets with Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Dawson Knox. Knox has earned over 60 targets and scored at least six touchdowns in each of the past two seasons and should not be expected to go away entirely.
Obviously, we're talking about dynasty here. I would be remiss to give up on Kincaid before he ever steps on the field. He could be great and live up to his top-six tight end price - eventually. But even Pitts, a former top-five NFL Draft pick, has not yet met expectations.
Unless he accomplishes what almost no other rookie tight end in the past 10 years has and becomes a weekly fantasy difference maker, there is a very high likelihood that Kincaid can be acquired for less around this time next year. I can't blame dynasty managers with a long rebuild ahead for wanting to hold, but contenders should absolutely explore trading Kincaid for a package including Dallas Goedert, Pat Freiermuth, or David Njoku.
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