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Rob takes a deep dive into Travis Etienne's fantasy football value to determine if you should be in or out for him in 2023.
Travis Etienne is one of the more polarizing fantasy football players right now. Some believe Etienne is an elite player on the verge of a massive third season. Others are outright avoiding him. What gives? On Underdog, he is currently being drafted as the RB12 with an ADP of 37.0, forcing fantasy managers to use a late-third-round pick or early fourth to get the former Clemson running back. Considering Etienne's second season, that is not an unrealistic price, so what is the problem?
Despite having an incredible receiving profile coming out of college, Etienne was hardly used in the passing game last season. Head coach Doug Pederson also has a history of going running back-by-committee. Combine all that with the team's third-round selection of Tank Bigsby, and you have the premise for why Etienne is being avoided by some.
So what's the right move? Let's dive into Travis Etienne's outlook and determine if you should be in or out on the third-year running back this season in fantasy football. With draft season approaching soon, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off any premium purchase.
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Taking the Good with the Bad
There was a recent Twitter flurry about how Travis Etienne underperformed last year. Of course, with Twitter only allowing 240 characters, it is hard to contextualize all the information. However, a good debate arose regarding what kind of season Etienne had last year from a fantasy perspective. The argument remains on whether or not fantasy managers should be investing in him for 2023.
With almost all things, the answer is never clear and concise. There are variables and contexts in play. For any argument, there are always two sides to a coin, and fantasy managers need to look at both sides to come to a full and honest evaluation. There were certainly some areas where Etienne far exceeded what most expected of him. There were also other areas where he vastly disappointed. The interesting part of this is where he excelled was where fantasy managers expected him to struggle and where he struggled, fantasy managers expected him to succeed. Fantasy football is never easy.
With every player, fantasy managers are required to look at the good and the bad and make a determination as to how those factors impact their price. Sometimes you can live with the bad relative to the player's price and sometimes you can't. Let's breakdown what Etienne did really well last season and the things he didn't do so well and determine if we're willing to live with the bad at his current price tag.
The Good – Elite Rushing Efficiency
Etienne was one of the best running backs with the ball in his hands last year. That is a fact and not up for debate. His efficiency metrics consist of some of the very best any running back in the NFL produced last season. There's no arguing this.
| YPC | RYOE/Carry | Broken Tackle % | YAC/Carry | Breakaway Run Rate | Yards Per Touch |
Yards Created Per Touch
|
| 5.1 (4th) | 0.79 (3rd) | 6.5% (11th) | 1.8 (20th) | 7.3% (12th) | 5.7 (10th) | 3.05 (17th) |
The table above shows Etienne’s efficiency metrics from last season and where he ranked among running backs. You cannot argue with the results above. He was one of the most efficient runners in the NFL. Of course, we don’t need to get fancy with all these advanced statistics to come to that conclusion. Etienne had the 16th-most touches among running backs last season; however, he managed to finish 11th in scrimmage yards. He made the most out of his opportunities and certainly did not disappoint.
Fantasy managers may not recall, but Etienne was on the wrong side of a 50/50 timeshare to start the season with former teammate James Robinson. It wasn’t until Week 5 that Etienne played more than 50% of the offensive snaps. And right before Week 8, Robinson was traded to the Jets, clearing the way for Etienne to handle a larger share of the workload.
| Time Period | CPG | RuPG | TPG | RPG | RYPG | TPG | SYPG |
| Weeks 5–20 | 15.9 | 82.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 17.3 | 18.1 | 99.9 |
| 17-Game Pace | 270 | 1,404 | 44 | 37 | 294 | 307 | 1,698 |
It is hard not to be impressed by what Etienne accomplished from Week 5 through their playoff run. Etienne averaged just under 100 scrimmage yards per game, putting him on a 17-game pace of almost 1,700 yards. Understandably, it’s hard to see how this kind of performance, coupled with his elite efficiency metrics, could be considered disappointing.
The Bad – Lackluster Receiving Workload
When Etienne entered the NFL, he did so as one of the better pass-catching running back prospects in recent memory. Over his final two seasons at Clemson, he had 98 targets, 85 receptions, and 1,020 receiving yards. In his last season alone, Etienne accumulated 60 targets, 48 receptions, and 588 receiving yards.
During the 2020 collegiate season, Etienne had a 12.2% target share. This ranked in the 86th percentile, according to PlayerProfiler. PFF gave him a receiving grade of 90.9, the highest among running backs with at least 20 targets. And he didn’t stop there.
Etienne averaged 12.3 yards per reception, 13.5 yards after the catch per reception, and 2.26 yards per route run, ranking fifth, fourth, and sixth among running backs, respectively. He was presumed to join the ranks of Alvin Kamara and D'Andre Swift as one of the best dual-threat running backs in the league. In this sense, he certainly did not disappoint.
However, Etienne finished with a lowly 7.8% target share, which ranked just 31st among running backs. Going back to the table above, even without Robinson in the mix, Etienne was on pace for just 44 targets over 17 games. It’s not a stretch to say that most fantasy managers drafted Etienne for his receiving profile and the value that he would bring in PPR scoring leagues. Luckily, his elite rushing metrics saved Etienne from being a complete disaster.
Now that's not to say Etienne cannot become a good pass-catching running back. After all, he finished with an average of 1.16 yards per route run and 9.0 yards per reception, ranking 16th and fifth, respectively, among running backs. And despite the general perception, Etienne did not struggle when given the opportunity. It was quite the opposite.
The question then becomes, how likely is it that Etienne's pass-catching role will increase in 2023? Unfortunately, this is the biggest concern of them all. If he could only muster a 7.8% target share last year, what will happen this season when the ghost of Marvin Jones Jr. is replaced by Calvin Ridley? The return of Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones, in addition to Ridley's arrival, will make targets hard to come by.
The Good — Incoming Touchdown Progression
Etienne finished with just five touchdowns last year, but it should not be surprising if he scores double-digit touchdowns this season. He is one of the best examples of a player primed for positive touchdown regression.
Etienne finished 31st in total touchdowns among running backs last season. Guys like Latavius Murray, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Samaje Perine, Jeff Wilson Jr., Alexander Mattison, and Cam Akers scored more than him. 31st in touchdowns despite having the 13th-most carries in the NFL and the 16th-most overall touches. Not just that, but Etienne's red zone usage was outstanding. And still, just five total touchdowns. You can bet that a lack of touchdowns will not happen again in 2023.
Last season, Etienne and Josh Jacobs each had 40 red zone carries, but Jacobs was the one who scored 12 times. Their 40 attempts within the red zone ranked them fifth among running backs. Etienne scored just five times despite every other running back with a minimum of 40 red zone carries having at least nine touchdowns.
It gets better though. The former Clemson Tiger had 23 carries inside the 10-yard line, again the same amount as Josh Jacobs. Once again, every player with at least 23 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line finished with at least nine touchdowns. Etienne had five. The second-year runner finished with 10 carries inside the five-yard line, tied for 10th among running backs. Jacobs had just one more carry like that last year. In the end, Etienne had almost an identical red zone workload as Jacobs, who scored 12 times, and the same number of touches as rookie Kenneth Walker, who scored nine. Etienne, just in case you forgot, had five.
While fantasy managers may need to accept that Etienne will be in more of a timeshare this season, it’s unlikely that he will lose work inside the 20. The red zone is where teams want their best players on the field. Etienne will be one of the best bounce-back candidates regarding touchdown scoring. And that should help offset questions regarding his usage.
Etienne’s workload will decrease from what we saw in the second half of last season. The signing of D'Ernest Johnson and the selection of Tank Bigsby in the third round virtually guarantees that. These additions are not necessarily something to panic about but rather something to be aware of.
After Week 4, Etienne handled 61.4% of the team’s carries, which would have ranked seventh among running backs. It would not be surprising to see that number drop by 5–7%, which could represent two or three fewer carries per game. Over the entire season, Etienne received 50.2% of the team’s carries, but fantasy managers should expect him to handle around 55% this season.
His third-down and pass-catching role did not change much after Robinson was traded away. Etienne's third-down snap share finished at 57.2%. His targets per game hovered around 2.5–3.0, which should be the expectation for 2023. It is unlikely that Johnson or Bigsby become a significant contributor on third downs in their first year with the team.
While fantasy managers should expect Etienne’s workload to decrease this season, do not expect a drastic change. Assuming Etienne does find the end zone more, which based on his utilization, we should expect the uptick in touchdowns should make up for any lost volume.
Are You In or Out?
Etienne is most likely being drafted at his realistic ceiling, which is not preferred. He is currently being drafted as the RB12 on Underdog drafts, with an ADP right around the round 3/4 turn. Ideally, the players we select have some upside relative to their cost. That way, we do not need everything to go right for them to be a worthwhile investment.
| Time Period | Carries | Rushing Yards | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total Touches | Scrimmage Yards | Total TDs | Half-PPR PPG |
| Per Game | 12.0 | 57.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 18.1 | 14.2 | 75.7 | 0.47 |
11.5
|
| 17-Game Pace | 204 | 979 | 44 | 37 | 294 | 241 | 1,287 | 8 |
The table above shows what Etienne’s 2023 season could look like. As you can see, his rushing total is decreasing, but not as much as some might think. He had 220 carries last season, so Etienne is losing just about one carry per game.
However, you should anticipate his efficiency somewhat dropping. Etienne was one of the most efficient runners in 2022, and the Jaguars’ offensive line got worse this offseason due to the incoming suspension of Cam Robinson and the loss of Jawaan Taylor in free agency. Because of this, Etienne's average yards per carry could drop from the 5.1 we saw last season, but he should still be at a healthy average in 2023.
Additionally, his receiving work should be in line with his 2022 totals. Ultimately, this kind of workload and efficiency would result in a mid-RB2 finish. Fantasy managers would be best passing on Etienne at his current price. Instead, target running backs such as Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, and Dameon Pierce, who can be drafted 1–2 rounds later and are likely to provide similar value.
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