RADIO
The market is in a bit of a downward spiral right now, but with the 3rd major of the year just around the corner, we can expect prices of golfers to go up in a week or two, as that has been the case in the last two majors. The time to buy is now, while holding on to cards you want to sell may be more profitable in a week or two.
If you are not familiar with ReignMakers, check out my "Introduction To ReignMakers Article" here, to get you up to speed with the basics and few more sneaky tips that can help you along your journey of building a player pool that can provide you with both short term and long term upside.
If there is something ReignMaker related that you would like to see in this article, feel free to reach out to me with your ideas. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. Let's make it Reign!!
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ReignMaker Strategy
Model Criteria
- A long-term rating of the golfer's overall skillset
- A combination of their strokes gained total L50 + their trajectory (how their SG Total was trending over a long/medium/short time frame)
- PGA Priority List # as we want to know which events a golfer will be able to play in.
- FedEx Cup Points (The Final Event of the season is the Tour Championship, which will feature 30 of the top FEC points scorers. The more FEC points you have right now, the better your chances are of making it to the Tour Championship, increasing the value of a card by end of the season)
- We will add the power rankings from my Masters model into the above ReignMaker rankings to come up with a short-term salary to compare to the market, to get a good feel for who short term targets will be.
The salary we will see in the remainder of the article will be catered to the lowest priced RARE cards (usually #/600 edition tier) on the market because 1) It is easier to manually update these prices by hand when filtering on the cheapest golfers in the tier 2) You can buy more of these cards to enter into contests, as they can be half the price of some of the #/120 edition tier cards, 3) RARE cards prices fit my personal budget so my information I share here will be what I use to make my own personal decisions.
Supply and Demand
After reaching an all-time low for average card price last week, despite it being an elevated event prices of cards continued to fall by about -$1.27 since the Charles Schwab Challenge.
The most expensive golfers
The golfers who have seen the biggest dollar INCREASE this week
31 golfers increased by 50 cents or more last week, down from 52 the week before. This week we see only 21 golfers jumping 50 cents in price or more. Tough times out there.
The golfers $5+ who have seen the biggest percentage INCREASE this week.
Cam Davis continues to see his stock surge, approaching double the price he was at the Byron Nelson. Corey Conners and Chez Reavie make up a gang of golfers who have seen double digit growth, with Garrick Higgo and Patrick Cantlay also jumping up 10% or more.
The golfers who had the biggest dollar DECREASE
Tony Finau missed back to back cuts in epic fashion, then decided to skip the next elevated event, resulting in a $19 decrease in price. Woof. Justin Thomas disappointed those who grabbed him for the PGA and is now almost less than $50. Crazy to think he was over $200 at the Valspar. Cameron Young was believed to have an illness the last few weeks, which would hopefully explain his bad play, but he has also seen a double-digit dollar decrease in price which I am very sad about.
The golfers $5+ who had the biggest % DECREASE
Ben Martin sees his price drop like a rock after a very disappointing Sunday performance last week, with Joel Dahmen not that far behind. Taylor Moore needed to take a break this week after a brutal 75 in his 2nd round last week missing the cut. He has been of the most consistent golfers recently but may be a little burnt out as you could see that come through when he was spiking his driver into the tee box at the PGA Championship. As somebody who is invested in him, he needs to take a break and come back fresh to drive that price up to a sellable range again.
Short Term Targets
Scottie Scheffler is a must roster as his worst finish in his 11 starts this year is a ... T12. LoL. The guy is a robot and now heads to a course that demands exceptional tee-to-green play which is what Scottie is doing at an unprecedented rate right now. If a $197 RARE is a little spendy, grab him in the CORE market and roster him that way. You simply have to have him in your lineups right now!
Tyrrell Hatton is playing some really impressive golf of late, with his irons and overall short game starting to trend really nicely, sitting in 20th spot in FedEx Cup points despite being winless this year. The way he is playing that could potentially change this week.
Jason Day missed the cut post Byron Nelson win at the PGA Championship because of all the media obligations and stuff that got in his way the week of the 2nd major. He has been a top-20 machine this year and the next major we play is out in California where we have seen J Day go cray cray! He is cheap and has massive upside if he continues the form he showed in Texas.
Matt Fitzpatrick will be teeing it up in the next 4 events, as he is also slated to play at the RBC Canadian Open, defend his US Open title in Los Angeles and then an elevated event in the form of the Travellers. Those are all mostly lower scoring events that he will thrive in and you can grab him at a really affordable price right now.
Corey Conners is doing that thing where he is on autopilot with his irons and driver, gaining over 2 strokes per round ball striking recently. He has also tidied up his short game making him a contender at most venues and will also be teeing it up in Canada.
Russell Henley is somebody who can provide you with a top-20 at an elevated event for the very affordable price of $16.90. He has been playing some really good golf and if he gets a few more tournaments on his schedule for the remainder of the year, we could see him provide extreme value at this price.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Long Term Targets
These are golfers that are not playing this week who have some long-term upside.
RBC Canadian Open
Sahith Theegala has not been confirmed to tee it up in Canada, but he is also part of team RBC and has rattled off T20s in 42% of his starts, with half of them being top-5s. He is $45 and is currently 20th on the FedEx Cup points list, with a win seemingly imminent for the very talented 2nd year PGA professional.
US Open
Although Max has not been playing his best golf recently, Homa will be playing the next major in his home city of Los Angeles. He should see a price bump purely off of that narrative and we have seen prices increase heading into majors, which should help make him a profitable buy-low-sell-high option heading into that week.
How to get your hands on the model?
If you are looking to get your hands on my ReignMaker Model, it will be made available in the RotoBaller PGA discord for our premium members to utilize as they see fit. Use code: MANIAC for 10% off our weekly or annual premium packages that will get you access to this model, my showdown model, premium articles, DFS optimizers, research tools, and our discord where @TeeOffSports and I hang out throughout the week.
Useful Resources
I do a weekly ReignMaker show with @DraftMasterFlex on Mondays at 8ET if you want to tune into that for some more ReignMakers information that we will be discussing.
I really hope you enjoyed this article and found it useful to kick start your ReignMaker journey or to polish up on some things you may not have been sure about.
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