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Four strong candidates have surpassed the opening-day favorite, Gunnar Henderson, to win American League Rookie of the Year. Masataka Yoshida, Josh Jung, Hunter Brown, and Anthony Volpe. Let’s discuss the type of production we can expect to see for the remainder of the year and who will most likely hit the rookie wall.
We could see things moving in the opposite direction for Henderson as he enjoyed a hot start at the end of 2022 but has struggled to get his feet under him in 2023. He was looking like the runaway favorite to win the award to start the year but we’ve seen the emergence of these four standouts early in 2023.
Which of these rookies are outproducing their expected stats and who can we see slowing down in the second half of the season?
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Masataka Yoshida, OF - Boston Red Sox
Yoshida stands as the current favorite to win American League Rookie of the Year according to Vegas odds. The Boston free-agency splash singing is fresh off a 16-game hitting streak and has hit .400 in the month of May. Yoshida has also picked up two home runs and eight RBI as the regular number two hitter since the calendar flipped to May.
Yoshida remains the most likely to have continued success at the major-league level after years of accomplishments in Nippon Professional Baseball. His latest hot streak has shot his batting average up to .308 on the year with six home runs and 24 RBI through 30 games. His expected batting average sits at .302 for the season according to Statcast.
The 29-year-old’s plate discipline has also been impressive, walking more times than striking out, and sporting a nine percent strikeout rate, ranking in the 98th percentile per Statcast. A true success story early in 2023, proving skills learned between leagues are in fact transferable.
Josh Jung, 3B - Texas Rangers
The former first-round pick has settled in as the everyday five-hole hitter for the top-scoring offense in baseball. Texas is scoring 6.37 runs per game in 2023, a two-run jump from their 2022 totals. Jung has been a huge part of their success after a foot injury caused him to miss most of last season.
Josh Jung goes deep as he continues to make an early case for Rookie of the Year pic.twitter.com/oVPGfWNUnF
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 3, 2023
Jung has already surpassed his home run total of five from last season but is still struggling with a strikeout rate of 32%. He’s now fallen behind Yoshida in the award race, batting .161 in May, with both home runs in the month coming in the same game. Jung has a season-long batting average of .244 but ranks sixth in the American League and leads all rookies with 25 RBI.
Jung’s batting average may continue to plummet if he can’t get his strikeout percentage under control as the league average is around 22%. The counting stats will likely remain high as the Rangers offense doesn't look like it’s slowing down anytime soon but his spot in the batting order could become volatile later in the year. Jung’s 47 strikeouts rank for sixth most in the league and veteran manager Bruce Bochy could elect to move him down the order at some point.
Hunter Brown, SP - Houston Astros
Hunter Brown’s rookie season has been filled with mixed results, finishing three quality starts in seven tries. His three quality starts have come against dominant offenses: Texas, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. Pitching 7.0 innings in each starts with 0 earned runs and five plus strikeouts. His struggles have come against lower-tiered offenses, failing to surpass the fifth inning in his past two outings.
Brown’s season-long record is 3-1, with a 3.23 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 39:16 K:BB in 39.0 IP. He’s put together a solid 3.19 FIP, 9.00 K/9, and has an expected ERA of 4.24 per Statcast and Fangraphs.
Brown will look to bounce back against great matchups in the coming weeks versus the White Sox and the Athletics twice. Brown lowered the usage of his breaking pitches in the past two starts, the slider and curveball, in favor of his four-seam fastball. Hopefully, he’ll go back to what was working so well to start the year, utilizing fastball command and inducing swings and misses on breaking balls.
Anthony Volpe, SS - New York Yankees
The 22-year-old superstar has now led off 21 straight games when active, and 23 games overall in the young season. Since first leading off on April 12th, Volpe has put together a .229/.321/.375 slash line, including an impressive eight thefts. What better numbers could the Yankees want out of their everyday rookie shortstop?
Grand slam No. 1 for Anthony Volpe. 😤 pic.twitter.com/GOyNC6GaP9
— MLB (@MLB) May 10, 2023
Sure, the batting average could be better but the on-base skills paired with a 12.4% walk rate is exactly what the team has been searching for. Volpe’s sprint speed ranks in the 82nd percentile per Statcast, a skill the Yankees have been seeking since the 2022 trade deadline when they traded for Harrison Bader.
The Yankees welcomed back Aaron Judge on Tuesday, providing even more lineup protection for Volpe at the top of a powerful lineup when healthy. Volpe will look to continue to get on base at a high clip and hope to catch Yoshida in the A.L. Rookie of the Year race while receiving plenty of exposure playing one of the largest markets in Major League Baseball.
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